Phosphorus Flows to and from Swedish Agriculture and Food Chain

Phosphorus flows in Swedish agriculture and food chain were studied by material flow analysis. The system studied included agriculture, food consumption, related waste and wastewater from private households and municipal wastewater treatment plants. Swedish farmland had net annual phosphorus inputs of ~12 600 metric tons (4.1 kg P ha⁻¹) in 2008–2010. The total import of phosphorus in food and feed to Sweden exceed imports of phosphorus in fertilizers. Despite strict animal density regulations relating to manure phosphorus content, phosphorus is accumulating on Swedish animal farms. The total quantity of manure produced greatly exceeds imported mineral phosphorus fertilizer and almost equals total phosphorus inputs to Swedish farmland.     

Investigation of NiO/NiAl2O4 oxygen carriers for chemical-looping combustion produced by spray-drying

Chemical-looping combustion is a novel combustion technology with inherent separation of the greenhouse gas CO₂. The technology uses circulating oxygen carriers to transfer oxygen from the combustion air to the fuel. In this paper, oxygen carriers based on commercially available NiO and α-Al₂O₃ were prepared using the industrial spray-drying method, and compared with particles prepared by freeze-granulation. The materials were investigated under alternating oxidizing and reducing conditions in a laboratory fluidized bed, thus simulating the cyclic conditions of a chemical-looping combustion system. The particles produced by spray-drying displayed a remarkable similarity to the freeze-granulated oxygen carriers, with high reactivity when the bed was fluidized and similar physical properties when sintered at the same temperature. This is an important result as it shows that the scaling-up from a laboratory production method, i.e. freeze-granulation, to a commercial method suitable for large-scale production, i.e. spray-drying, did not involve any unexpected difficulties. A difference noticed between the spray-dried and freeze-granulated particles was the sphericity. Whereas the freeze-granulated particles showed near perfect sphericity, a large portion of the spray-dried particles had hollow interiors. Defluidization was most likely to occur for highly reduced particles, at low gas velocities. The apparent density and crushing strength of the oxygen carriers could be increased either by increasing the sintering temperature or by increasing the sintering time. However, the fuel conversion was fairly unchanged when the sintering temperature was increased but was clearly improved when the sintering time was increased.     

Models to Assess the Risk of Snow and Wind Damage in Pine, Spruce, and Birch Forests in Sweden

3 are damaged annually by snow and wind, roughly corresponding to a value of US$150 million, and in Europe, the damage amounts to hundreds of millions of US dollars each year. To help to reduce these losses, tools for risk assessment within forest management have been developed. Predictions were developed of the risk of damage from snow and wind to Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), Norway spruce [Picea abies (L.) Karst.] and Birch (Betula spp. L.) plots using tree, stand, and site characteristics. The data were obtained from 6756 permanent sample plots within the Swedish National Forest Inventory, which were inventoried twice at five-year intervals between 1983 and 1992. Input data for model development used measurements from the first inventory of tree characteristics for the largest sample tree, stand, and site data, and records of snow and wind damage from the second inventory. Models were developed for three different regions for pine- and spruce-dominated sites, while models for the whole country were developed for birch sites. In general the estimated proportion of damaged plots was highly overestimated (31.7%–56.2%), compared with the observed proportion of 3.4%–11.9%. The models for Norway spruce comprising tree, stand, and site data show the best predictability of damaged plots, with 60.6%–67.6% of plots correctly classified. It is concluded that the models developed can be used to detect sites with a high probability of damage from snow and wind, and thus be used as tools to reduce future damage and costs in practical forestry.     

Simultaneous CO2 injection and water production to optimise aquifer storage capacity

The estimates for geological CO₂ storage capacity worldwide vary, but it is generally believed that the capacity in saline aquifers will be sufficient for the amounts of CO₂ that will need to be stored. The effort required to select and qualify a geological storage site for safe storage will, however, be significant and storage capacity may be a limited resource regionally. Both from a economic and resource management perspective it is therefore important that potential storage sites are exploited to their full potential.In static capacity estimates, where the maximum stored amount of CO₂ is given as a fraction of the formation pore volume, typically arrive at efficiency factors in the range of a few per cents. Recent work has shown that when the dynamic behaviour of the injected CO₂ is taken into account, the efficiency factor will be reduced because of the increase in pore pressure in the region around the injection well(s). The increase in pore pressure will propagate much further than the CO₂. The EU directive on geological CO₂ storage specifically addresses the restriction that will apply when different storage sites are interacting due to pressure communication. Consequently, the pore pressure increase at the boundary of the storage license area will be an important limiting factor for the amount of CO₂ that can be injected.One obvious method to control the pore pressure is to produce water from the aquifer at some distance from the CO₂ injection wells. This paper discusses results from simulations of CO₂ injection in two aquifers on the Norwegian Continental Shelf; the Johansen aquifer and the southern part of the Utsira aquifer. These aquifers are candidates for injection of CO₂ shipped out via pipeline from the Norwegian West Coast. The injected amounts of CO₂ over a period of 50 years are 0.518 Gtonne for the Johansen aquifer and 1.04 Gtonne for the Utsira aquifer.Several design options for the injection operations are investigated: Injection of CO₂ without water production; injection into several wells to distribute the injected fluids and reduce the local pressure increase around each injection well; and injection with simultaneous production of water from one or more wells. The boundaries of the aquifer formations are assumed closed in all simulations. The possible consequences of other types of boundary conditions (semi-closed or open) are briefly discussed.     

BENEFITS OF ITERATIVE WATER SUPPLY FORECASTING IN THE WASHINGTON,D.C., METROPOLITAN AREA1

The three largest water utilities in the Washington, D.C., metropolitan area (WMA) rely on the Potomac River and its reservoirs for water supply. These utilities have committed to a periodic review of the system's adequacy to meet future demands. In 1990, 1995, 2000, and again in 2004 (for publication in 2005) the utilities requested that the Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin (ICPRB) conduct a 20‐year water demand and resource adequacy study to fulfill this need. The selection of the five‐year interval provides multiple benefits. It allows regular updates and incorporation of recent demographic forecasts, and it increases visibility and understanding of the adequacy of the region's water resources. It also provides adequate time to conduct research on the physical system and to incorporate modifications based on this research into subsequent studies. The studies and lessons learned are presented in this case study of the WMA. The work has been a natural outgrowth of a long history of cooperative water supply planning and management among the main WMA water utilities and ICPRB.     

Quantifying species recovery and conservation success to develop an IUCN Green List of Species

Stopping declines in biodiversity is critically important, but it is only a first step toward achieving more ambitious conservation goals. The absence of an objective and practical definition of species recovery that is applicable across taxonomic groups leads to inconsistent targets in recovery plans and frustrates reporting and maximization of conservation impact. We devised a framework for comprehensively assessing species recovery and conservation success. We propose a definition of a fully recovered species that emphasizes viability, ecological functionality, and representation; and use counterfactual approaches to quantify degree of recovery. This allowed us to calculate a set of 4 conservation metrics that demonstrate impacts of conservation efforts to date (conservation legacy); identify dependence of a species on conservation actions (conservation dependence); quantify expected gains resulting from conservation action in the medium term (conservation gain); and specify requirements to achieve maximum plausible recovery over the long term (recovery potential). These metrics can incentivize the establishment and achievement of ambitious conservation targets. We illustrate their use by applying the framework to a vertebrate, an invertebrate, and a woody and an herbaceous plant. Our approach is a preliminary framework for an International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Green List of Species, which was mandated by a resolution of IUCN members in 2012. Although there are several challenges in applying our proposed framework to a wide range of species, we believe its further development, implementation, and integration with the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species will help catalyze a positive and ambitious vision for conservation that will drive sustained conservation action.     

Differential breeding investment in bridled and non-bridled common guillemots (Uria aalge): morph of the partner matters

Polymorphism is the coexistence of two or more phenotypically distinct and genetically determinate forms in a population and implies a selective balance between the alternative morphs to permanently exist. Common guillemots Uria aalge occur in two genetically distinct morphs—a non-bridled and a bridled—the latter with white eye rings and a well-defined stripe behind the eyes. In this study, we investigated differences between the morphs with regard to reproductive parameters. We used a detailed family-based sample providing data on mother, father, and chick over three breeding seasons. The mating between morphs was random but pure non-bridled and pure bridled pairs produced smaller chicks at age 15 days than the two mixed pair compositions. Body mass of the adults showed much the same pattern; pure pairs having lower body mass than mixed pairs. There were no differences between the two morphs in reproductive parameters without considering the morph of the partner. This suggests that reproductive decisions in some way not only depend on the morph but also on the tactic of the partner. Different reproductive strategies between morph family groups as found in this study may contribute to the understanding of the existence of a balanced polymorphism in common guillemots. The overall breeding conditions during the years of this study were good. However, over time in a variable environment, we suggest that tactics of different family groups may have different success stabilizing the frequency of non-bridled and bridled birds over time.     

Estimating freshwater turtle mortality rates and population declines following hook ingestion

Freshwater turtle populations are susceptible to declines following small increases in the mortality of adults, making it essential to identify and understand potential threats. Freshwater turtles ingest fish hooks associated with recreational angling, and this is likely a problem because hook ingestion is a source of additive mortality for sea turtles. We used a Bayesian‐modeling framework, observed rates of hook ingestion by freshwater turtles, and mortality of sea turtles from hook ingestion to examine the probability that a freshwater turtle in a given population ingests a hook and subsequently dies from it. We used the results of these analyses and previously published life‐history data to simulate the effects of hook ingestion on population growth for 3 species of freshwater turtle. In our simulation, the probability that an individual turtle ingests a hook and dies as a result was 1.2–11%. Our simulation results suggest that this rate of mortality from hook ingestion is sufficient to cause population declines. We believe we have identified fish‐hook ingestion as a serious yet generally overlooked threat to the viability of freshwater turtle populations.