Modelling the global heat balance

A previous model of the global heat balance has been expanded by including the influence of SO₂ pollution, water content of the atmosphere and cloudiness. It was found that the previous results were not changed significantly by this expansion of the model. The conclusions set up uising the previous model were still valid: (1) it is great importance to include the buffer capacity of the sea, including its dependence on pH and the temperature; (2) it is of importance to include natural climatic variations; (3) the dominanting factor is the trend in the consumption of fossil fuel.     

Marine ecosystem modeling beyond the box: using GIS to study carbon fluxes in a coastal ecosystem

Studies of carbon fluxes in marine ecosystems are often done by using box model approaches with basin size boxes, or highly resolved 3D models, and an emphasis on the pelagic component of the ecosystem. Those approaches work well in the ocean proper, but can give rise to considerable problems when applied to coastal systems, because of the scale of certain ecological niches and the fact that benthic organisms are the dominant functional group of the ecosystem. In addition, 3D models require an extensive modeling effort. In this project, an intermediate approach based on a high resolution (20x20 m) GIS data-grid has been developed for the coastal ecosystem in the Laxemar area (Baltic Sea, Sweden) based on a number of different site investigations. The model has been developed in the context of a safety assessment project for a proposed nuclear waste repository, in which the fate of hypothetically released radionuclides from the planned repository is estimated. The assessment project requires not only a good understanding of the ecosystem dynamics at the site, but also quantification of stocks and flows of matter in the system. The data-grid was then used to set up a carbon budget describing the spatial distribution of biomass, primary production, net ecosystem production and thus where carbon sinks and sources are located in the area. From these results, it was clear that there was a large variation in ecosystem characteristics within the basins and, on a larger scale, that the inner areas are net producing and the outer areas net respiring, even in shallow phytobenthic communities. Benthic processes had a similar or larger influence on carbon fluxes as advective processes in inner areas, whereas the opposite appears to be true in the outer basins. As many radionuclides are expected to follow the pathways of organic matter in the environment, these findings enhance our abilities to realistically describe and predict their fate in the ecosystem.     

Biological assessment of bisphenol A degradation in water following direct photolysis and UV advanced oxidation

Endocrine disrupting compounds (EDCs) are exogenous environmental chemicals that can interfere with normal hormone function and present a potential threat to both environmental and human health. The fate, distribution and degradation of EDCs is a subject of considerable investigation. To date, several studies have demonstrated that conventional water treatment processes are ineffective for removal of most EDCs and in some instances produce multiple unknown transformation products. In this study we have investigated the use of direct photolysis with low-pressure (LP) Hg UV lamps and UV+hydrogen peroxide (H(2)O(2)) advanced oxidation process (AOP) for the degradation of a prototypic endocrine disrupter, bisphenol A (BPA), in laboratory water. Removal rates of BPA and formation of degradation products were determined by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) analysis. Changes in estrogenic activity were evaluated using both in vitro yeast estrogen screen (YES) and in vivo vitellogenin (VTG) assays with Japanese medaka fish (Oryzias latipes). Our results demonstrate that UV alone did not effectively degrade BPA. However, UV in combination with H(2)O(2) significantly removed BPA parent compound and aqueous estrogenic activity in vitro and in vivo. Removal rates of in vivo estrogenic activity were significantly lower than those observed in vitro, demonstrating differential sensitivities of these bioassays and that certain UV/AOP metabolites may retain estrogenic activity. Furthermore, the UV/H(2)O(2) AOP was effective for reducing larval lethality in treated BPA solutions, suggesting BPA degradation occurred and that the degradation process did not result in the production of acutely toxic intermediates.     

Intentionally building relationships between participatory online groups and formal organisations for effective emergency response

Advances in information and communication technologies enable the public to contribute to emergency response. For instance, reporting systems set up during recent disasters allowed affected people to submit testimonies about conditions on the ground. In addition, the public has analysed data and helped to mobilise and deliver relief resources. To plan intentionally for an integrative emergency response system in the networked age, this research explores two subject areas: (i) the organisational and technical determinants of relationships forged between formal organisations and participatory online groups established by the public; and (ii) the consequences of the outcomes generated by these relationships. Four in‐depth case studies were selected for the analysis, which revealed that resource dependence, shared understanding, and the use of certain types of information technology influence the formation of such relationships. Furthermore, healthy collaborative relationships increase the chances of desirable results, including inter‐organisational alignment and minimal long‐term harm owing to a disaster.     

Assessing ecological function in the context of species recovery

Species interactions matter to conservation. Setting an ambitious recovery target for a species requires considering the size, density, and demographic structure of its populations such that they fulfill the interactions, roles, and functions of the species in the ecosystems in which they are embedded. A recently proposed framework for an International Union for Conservation of Nature Green List of Species formalizes this requirement by defining a fully recovered species in terms of representation, viability, and functionality. Defining and quantifying ecological function from the viewpoint of species recovery is challenging in concept and application, but also an opportunity to insert ecological theory into conservation practice. We propose 2 complementary approaches to assessing a species’ ecological functions: confirmation (listing interactions of the species, identifying ecological processes and other species involved in these interactions, and quantifying the extent to which the species contributes to the identified ecological process) and elimination (inferring functionality by ruling out symptoms of reduced functionality, analogous to the red-list approach that focuses on symptoms of reduced viability). Despite the challenges, incorporation of functionality into species recovery planning is possible in most cases and it is essential to a conservation vision that goes beyond preventing extinctions and aims to restore a species to levels beyond what is required for its viability. This vision focuses on conservation and recovery at the species level and sees species as embedded in ecosystems, influencing and being influenced by the processes in those ecosystems. Thus, it connects and integrates conservation at the species and ecosystem levels.     

Effects of amusing memes on concern for unappealing species

There is limited knowledge of the mechanisms that can inspire people's concern and engagement in the protection of unpopular and unappealing species. We analyzed Polish people's interest in themed internet memes featuring the proboscis monkey (Nasalis larvatus) and the consequences of this interest for conservation marketing. We examined Google Trends data, used Google Search, and searched popular media materials to estimate interest in the proboscis monkey in Poland. Photos of the proboscis monkey when presented with humor in internet memes attracted as much interest as usually more popular species (e.g., koala, panda, and orangutan) used in marketing by nongovernmental organizations. Amusing internet memes spread by social media positively correlated with increasing interest in the unappealing species, such as proboscis monkey. Interest in amusing internet memes positively correlated with individuals’ decisions to donate to 6 crowdfunding actions. Thus, conservation marketing that includes amusing memes and social media may provide a worthwhile complement to traditional campaigns and are likely to influence individuals who are unaffected by the usual means.     

Assessing the components of adaptive capacity to improve conservation and management efforts under global change

Natural‐resource managers and other conservation practitioners are under unprecedented pressure to categorize and quantify the vulnerability of natural systems based on assessment of the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of species to climate change. Despite the urgent need for these assessments, neither the theoretical basis of adaptive capacity nor the practical issues underlying its quantification has been articulated in a manner that is directly applicable to natural‐resource management. Both are critical for researchers, managers, and other conservation practitioners to develop reliable strategies for assessing adaptive capacity. Drawing from principles of classical and contemporary research and examples from terrestrial, marine, plant, and animal systems, we examined broadly the theory behind the concept of adaptive capacity. We then considered how interdisciplinary, trait‐ and triage‐based approaches encompassing the oft‐overlooked interactions among components of adaptive capacity can be used to identify species and populations likely to have higher (or lower) adaptive capacity. We identified the challenges and value of such endeavors and argue for a concerted interdisciplinary research approach that combines ecology, ecological genetics, and eco‐physiology to reflect the interacting components of adaptive capacity. We aimed to provide a basis for constructive discussion between natural‐resource managers and researchers, discussions urgently needed to identify research directions that will deliver answers to real‐world questions facing resource managers, other conservation practitioners, and policy makers. Directing research to both seek general patterns and identify ways to facilitate adaptive capacity of key species and populations within species, will enable conservation ecologists and resource managers to maximize returns on research and management investment and arrive at novel and dynamic management and policy decisions.     

Poaching, enforcement, and the efficacy of marine reserves.

Marine reserves are promoted as an effective supplement to traditional fishery management techniques of harvest quotas and effort limitation. However, quantitative fishery models have ignored the impact of noncompliance (poaching). Here we link a model of a harvested fish population to a game-theoretic representation of fisherman behavior to quantify the effect of poaching on fishery yield and the enforcement effort required to maintain any desired level of reserve effectiveness. Although higher fish densities inside reserves will typically entice fishermen to poach, we show that the initial investment in enforcement efforts provides the greatest return on maintaining the benefits of the reserve to the fishery. Furthermore, we find that poaching eliminates the positive effect of fish dispersal on yield that is predicted by traditional models that ignore fisherman behavior. Our results broaden a fundamental insight from previous models of marine reserves, the effective equivalence of the harvest quota and reserve fraction, to the more realistic scenario in which fishermen attempt to maximize their economic payoffs.