Assessment of a regulatory model's performance relative to large spatial heterogeneity in observed ozone in Houston, Texas

In Houston, some of the highest measured 8-hr ozone (O3) peaks are characterized by sudden increases in observed concentrations of at least 40 ppb in 1 hr or 60 ppb in 2 hr. Measurements show that these large hourly changes appear at only a few monitors and span a narrow geographic area, suggesting a spatially heterogeneous field of O3 concentrations. This study assessed whether a regulatory air quality model (AQM) can simulate this observed behavior. The AQM did not reproduce the magnitude or location of some of the highest observed hourly O3 changes, and it also failed to capture the limited spatial extent. On days with measured large hourly changes in O3 concentrations, the AQM predicted high O3 over large regions of Houston, resulting in overpredictions at several monitors. This analysis shows that the model can make high O3, but on these days the predicted spatial field suggests that the model had a different cause. Some observed large hourly changes in O3 concentrations have been linked to random releases of industrial volatile organic compounds (VOCs). In the AQM emission inventory, there are several emission events when an industrial point source increases VOC emissions in excess of 10,000 mol/hr. One instance increased predicted downwind O3 concentrations up to 25 ppb. These results show that the modeling system is responsive to a large VOC release, but the timing and location of the release, and meteorological conditions, are critical requirements. Attainment of the O3 standard requires the use of observational data and AQM predictions. If the large observed hourly changes are indicative of a separate cause of high O3, then the model may not include that cause, which might result in regulators enacting control strategies that could be ineffective.     

Assessing the Impacts of Forests on Human Welfare: Preliminary Results from the Mid-Atlantic Integrated Assessment

This paper presents results from the first phase of the socio-economic assessment of forest ecosystems in the Mid-Atlantic Integrated Assessment (MAIA). First, we present results of the analysis of changes in the distribution of human population and forest land use in the region. Then, trends in wood products employment and income between 1975–95 are used to examine the economic contributions of forest-based industries in the Mid-Atlantic region. Between 1970–90 the population of the MAIA region increased by 14% (4.3 million people) resulting in the average population density increasing by 25 people per square mile from 179 to 204 people per square mile. Nevertheless, population density was lower in large parts of the region in 1990 than in 1950. Although forests dominate the MAIA landscape, the trend is toward more people owning smaller forest land holdings, with developed lands increasing by 21% and rural lands decreasing by 2.64% between 1982–94. All of this suggests increasing forest fragmentation in all states of the region except New York, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. Forest industry has been an important contributor to the economy of the MAIA region, producing an average of a quarter million jobs (2.03% of all wage employment) and generating $4.5 billion in wages and salaries each year between 1975–95. If recent trends continue, forest industry will continue to be an important source of employment and income for parts of some states in the MAIA region; however, the forest industry's importance relative to the entire mid-Atlantic economy will likely continue to decline in the 21^st century.     

Technetium: A toxic waste product of the nuclear fuel cycle: Effects on soybean growth and development

Technetium-99 (⁹⁹Tc) is formed in significant amounts (6.2% fission yield) during fission in both nuclear reactors and nuclear bombs. The effects of technetium on soybeans (Glycine max) were studied in relation to (a) cytochemical events in the apical meristems of germinating seedlings; (b) growth responses to 0, 0.04, 0.2, 1.0, 5.0, and 20.0 ppm Tc; (c) growth responses to varying levels of Tc after a prior 5-day germination on Tc-free media, and (d) response to Tc in the presence of added manganese.By 20 days, reductions in growth were evident at all levels of Tc except 0.04 ppm (Experiment 2). Root growth was most severely affected, and seedling abnormality at 20 ppm was fivefold greater than that of the controls. The effect of 20 ppm Tc was evident at 10 days when the accumulated absorption dose was approximately 25 rads. The first evidence of damage at this dose was a delay in the initiation of the first trifoliate leaf. The shoot meristem size was 1.2-fold smaller than that of the control; however, there was no cytological evidence of radiation-induced damage. Observation of mitotic figures did not reveal any chromosome aberrations, micronuclei, or chromosome bridges. The lowest level of Tc showing toxicity was 0.2 ppm which resulted in a 31% reduction in growth at 20 days. The accumulated dose was 0.5 rad (0.025 rad/day) and thus it seems unlikely that the rapid inhibition of growth and development is due to radiological toxicity. It is quite probable that the growth effects are due to chemical toxicity possibly due to nutrient competition and/or substitution in uptake or metabolism. However, extremely low doses of radiation have been shown to delay the onset of DNA synthesis (possibly by membrane effects) inTradescantia and until the actual mechanism of Tc inhibition is determined a radiation effect cannot be totally ruled out.This research was partially supported by ERDA Contract EY-76-S-02-4139     

The effectiveness of forecast-based humanitarian assistance in anticipation of extreme winters: a case study of vulnerable herders in Mongolia

This paper presents evidence relating to a forecast-based cash and non-food item distribution among vulnerable herder households during the 2017–18 dzud (extreme winter) season in Mongolia, and analyses the results of a quasi-experimental study evaluating its impacts. An innovative approach in disaster risk reduction, forecast-based financing (FbF) can have short- and long-term benefits to vulnerable households but remains understudied. The paper contributes information on a multimodal FbF programme offering one-off cash grants and in-kind veterinary kits. The data found significant effects of reduced mortality and increased offspring survival in some types of livestock, and that the timing of FbF assistance is crucial, as reported early assistance correlated to positive outcomes in terms of reduced animal mortality. These findings can be used to design more effective FbF interventions, to understand better the appropriateness of FbF designs, and to use early warnings and early actions to help people prepare and withstand disasters such as dzuds.     

Hydrologic regime and herbivory stabilize an alternative state in Yellowstone National Park.

A decline in the stature and abundance of willows during the 20th century occurred throughout the northern range of Yellowstone National Park, where riparian woody-plant communities are key components in multiple-trophic-level interactions. The potential causes of willow decline include climate change, increased elk browsing coincident with the loss of an apex predator, the gray wolf, and an absence of habitat engineering by beavers. The goal of this study was to determine the spatial and temporal patterns of willow establishment through the 20th century and to identify causal processes. Sampled willows established from 1917 to 1999 and contained far fewer young individuals than was predicted from a modeled stable willow population, indicating reduced establishment during recent decades. Two hydrologically distinct willow establishment environments were identified: fine-grained beaver pond sediments and coarse-grained alluvium. Willows established on beaver pond sediment earlier in time, higher on floodplain surfaces, and farther from the current stream channel than did willows on alluvial sediment. Significant linear declines from the 1940s to the 1990s in alluvial willow establishment elevation and lateral distance from the stream channel resulted in a much reduced area of alluvial willow establishment. Willow establishment was not well correlated with climate-driven hydrologic variables, but the trends were consistent with the effects of stream channel incision initiated in ca. 1950, 20-30 years after beaver dam abandonment. Radiocarbon dates and floodplain stratigraphy indicate that stream incision of the present magnitude may be unprecedented in the past two millennia. We propose that hydrologic changes, stemming from competitive exclusion of beaver by elk overbrowsing, caused the landscape to transition from a historical beaver-pond and willow-mosaic state to its current alternative stable state where active beaver dams and many willow stands are absent. Because of hydrologic changes in streams, a rapid return to the historical state may not occur by reduction of elk browsing alone. Management intervention to restore the historical hydrologic regime may be necessary to recover willows and beavers across the landscape.     

Separation and capture of CO2 from large stationary sources and sequestration in geological formations--coalbeds and deep saline aquifers

The topic of global warming as a result of increased atmospheric CO2 concentration is arguably the most important environmental issue that the world faces today. It is a global problem that will need to be solved on a global level. The link between anthropogenic emissions of CO2 with increased atmospheric CO2 levels and, in turn, with increased global temperatures has been well established and accepted by the world. International organizations such as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have been formed to address this issue. Three options are being explored to stabilize atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and global temperatures without severely and negatively impacting standard of living: (1) increasing energy efficiency, (2) switching to less carbon-intensive sources of energy, and (3) carbon sequestration. To be successful, all three options must be used in concert. The third option is the subject of this review. Specifically, this review will cover the capture and geologic sequestration of CO2 generated from large point sources, namely fossil-fuel-fired power gasification plants. Sequestration of CO2 in geological formations is necessary to meet the President's Global Climate Change Initiative target of an 18% reduction in GHG intensity by 2012. Further, the best strategy to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of CO2 results from a multifaceted approach where sequestration of CO2 into geological formations is combined with increased efficiency in electric power generation and utilization, increased conservation, increased use of lower carbon-intensity fuels, and increased use of nuclear energy and renewables. This review covers the separation and capture of CO2 from both flue gas and fuel gas using wet scrubbing technologies, dry regenerable sorbents, membranes, cryogenics, pressure and temperature swing adsorption, and other advanced concepts. Existing commercial CO2 capture facilities at electric power-generating stations based on the use of monoethanolamine are described, as is the Rectisol process used by Dakota Gasification to separate and capture CO2 from a coal gasifier. Two technologies for storage of the captured CO2 are reviewed--sequestration in deep unmineable coalbeds with concomitant recovery of CH4 and sequestration in deep saline aquifers. Key issues for both of these techniques include estimating the potential storage capacity, the storage integrity, and the physical and chemical processes that are initiated by injecting CO2 underground. Recent studies using computer modeling as well as laboratory and field experimentation are presented here. In addition, several projects have been initiated in which CO2 is injected into a deep coal seam or saline aquifer. The current status of several such projects is discussed. Included is a commercial-scale project in which a million tons of CO2 are injected annually into an aquifer under the North Sea in Norway. The review makes the case that this can all be accomplished safely with off-the-shelf technologies. However, substantial research and development must be performed to reduce the cost, decrease the risks, and increase the safety of sequestration technologies. This review also includes discussion of possible problems related to deep injection of CO2. There are safety concerns that need to be addressed because of the possibilities of leakage to the surface and induced seismic activity. These issues are presented along with a case study of a similar incident in the past. It is clear that monitoring and verification of storage will be a crucial part of all geological sequestration practices so that such problems may be avoided. Available techniques include direct measurement of CO2 and CH4 surface soil fluxes, the use of chemical tracers, and underground 4-D seismic monitoring. Ten new hypotheses were formulated to describe what happens when CO2 is pumped into a coal seam. These hypotheses provide significant insight into the fundamental chemical, physical, and thermodynamic phenomena that occur during coal seam sequestration of CO2.     

Experimental investigation of false positive errors in auditory species occurrence surveys

False positive errors are a significant component of many ecological data sets, which in combination with false negative errors, can lead to severe biases in conclusions about ecological systems. We present results of a field experiment where observers recorded observations for known combinations of electronically broadcast calling anurans under conditions mimicking field surveys to determine species occurrence. Our objectives were to characterize false positive error probabilities for auditory methods based on a large number of observers, to determine if targeted instruction could be used to reduce false positive error rates, and to establish useful predictors of among-observer and among-species differences in error rates. We recruited 31 observers, ranging in abilities from novice to expert, who recorded detections for 12 species during 180 calling trials (66,960 total observations). All observers made multiple false positive errors, and on average 8.1% of recorded detections in the experiment were false positive errors. Additional instruction had only minor effects on error rates. After instruction, false positive error probabilities decreased by 16% for treatment individuals compared to controls with broad confidence interval overlap of 0 (95% CI:--46 to 30%). This coincided with an increase in false negative errors due to the treatment (26%;--3 to 61%). Differences among observers in false positive and in false negative error rates were best predicted by scores from an online test and a self-assessment of observer ability completed prior to the field experiment. In contrast, years of experience conducting call surveys was a weak predictor of error rates. False positive errors were also more common for species that were played more frequently but were not related to the dominant spectral frequency of the call. Our results corroborate other work that demonstrates false positives are a significant component of species occurrence data collected by auditory methods. Instructing observers to only report detections they are completely certain are correct is not sufficient to eliminate errors. As a result, analytical methods that account for false positive errors will be needed, and independent testing of observer ability is a useful predictor for among-observer variation in observation error rates.