Weather,salience of climate change and congressional voting

Climate change is a complex long-run phenomenon. The speed and severity with which it is occurring is difficult to observe, complicating the formation of beliefs for individuals. We use Google search intensity data as a proxy for the salience of climate change and examine how search patterns vary with unusual local weather. We find that searches for “climate change” and “global warming” increase with extreme temperatures and unusual lack of snow. Furthermore, we demonstrate that effects of abnormal weather extend beyond search behavior to observable action on environmental issues. We examine the voting records of members of the U.S. Congress from 2004 to 2011 and find that members are more likely to take a pro-environment stance on votes when their home state experiences unusual weather.     

MODELING THE EFFECTS OF VARIABLE ANNUAL FLOW ON RIVER CHANNEL MEANDER MIGRATION PATTERNS,SACRAMENTO RIVER,CALIFORNIA, USA1

ABSTRACT: Flow regulation impacts the ecology of major rivers in various ways, including altering river channel migration patterns. Many current meander migration models employ a constant annual flow or dominant discharge value. To assess how flow regulation alters river function, variable annual flows ‐ based on an empirical relationship between bank erosion rates and cumulative effective stream power ‐ were added into an existing migration model. This enhanced model was used to evaluate the potential geomorphic and ecological consequences of four regulated flow scenarios (i.e., different hydrographs) currently being proposed on the Sacramento River in California. The observed rate of land reworked correlated significantly with observed cumulative effective stream power during seven time increments from 1956 to 1975 (r²= 0.74, p = 0.02). The river was observed to rework 3.0 ha/yr of land (a mean channel migration rate of 7.7 m/yr) with rates ranging from 0.8 ha/yr to 5.1 ha/yr (2.0 to 13.3 m/yr), during the analyzed time periods. Modeled rates of land reworked correlated significantly with observed rates of land reworked for the variable flow model (r²= 0.78, p = 0.009). The meander migration scenario modeling predicted a difference of 1 to 8 percent between the four flow management scenarios and the base scenario.     

A low cost instrument based on a solid state sensor for balloon-borne atmospheric O(3) profile sounding

The design of an instrument based on a solid state tungsten oxide sensor for making profile measurements of atmospheric ozone from balloon platforms is described. The sensor is operated at a constant temperature, typically 530 [degree]C. The importance of a detailed consideration of the electronic design is demonstrated, with particular reference to the circuit to control the sensor heater. Calibration methods which are straightforward to implement are illustrated, and the results of a test flight alongside an electrochemical ozonesonde are shown. Quantitative agreement within 25% for most of the profile demonstrates the potential of this type of sensor for ozone sounding. Future improvements from manufacture to analysis are expected to improve on this.     

Using gypsum to reduce phosphorus in runoff from subcatchments in South Australia

Concentrations of phosphorus (P) in runoff from agricultural catchments in southern Australia are high and well above national and international limits. Phosphorus was found to exit two subcatchments of 3.6 and 4.2 ha in the Adelaide hills via both overland flow and interflow. The subcatchments had texture-contrast soils with high inputs of superphosphate and were openly grazed by cattle all year. Interflow at the boundary of the B and C soil horizons accounted for as much as half the total water flow that was measured (overland flow, A-B interflow, and B-C interflow). The average flow-weighted concentration of total P within overland flow was as high as 0.25 mg L(-1), and 0.05 mg L(-1) in B-C interflow. In most years P loss was in the dissolved (<0.45 microm) form. In some years, interflow was the major pathway for P loss off these catchments. The B-C interflow cannot be discounted when searching for management options to reduce P loss from texture-contrast soils to waterways. Preliminary laboratory experiments showed promise that gypsum could modify agricultural soils and reduce the concentrations of P (and dissolved organic C) in runoff before it enters public water supply reservoirs. In this study, gypsum, applied at a rate of 15 Mg ha(-1) to the 4.2-ha subcatchment, substantially modified the soil chemistry, and thereby soil structure. The size and stability of structural aggregates increased markedly and this change affected not only the A but also the upper B horizons, to a profile depth of approximately 50 cm. However, the impact of these physicochemical changes on P concentrations in runoff was not marked. Average profile P concentrations were only slightly lower in the runoff from the subcatchment following treatment. The high subsoil macroporosity of the gypsum-treated subcatchment caused an increase in the proportion of runoff by interflow.     

Decision Support for Road System Analysis and Modification on the Tahoe National Forest

The United States Forest Service is required to analyze road systems on each of the national forests for potential environmental impacts. We have developed a novel and inexpensive way to do this using the Ecosystem Management Decision Support program (EMDS). We used EMDS to integrate a user-developed fuzzy logic knowledge base with a grid-based geographic information system to evaluate the degree of truth for assertions about a roads environmental impact. Using spatial data for natural and human processes in the Tahoc National Forest (TNF, California, USA), we evaluated the assertion the road has a high potential for impacting the environment. We found a high level of agreement between the products of this evaluation and ground observations of a TNF transportation engineer, as well as occurrences of road failures. We used the modeled potential environmental impact to negatively weight roads for a least-cost path network analysis to 1573 points of interest in the forest. The network analysis showed that out of 8233 km of road analyzed in the forest, 3483 km (42%) must be kept in a modified road network to ensure access to these points. We found that the modified network had improved patch characteristics, such as significantly fewer cherry stem roads intruding into patches, an improved area-weighted mean shape index, and larger mean patch sizes, as compared to the original network. This analysis system could be used by any public agency to analyze infrastructure for environmental or other risk and included in other mandated analyses such as risks to watersheds.     

The use of passive sampling to monitor forest exposure to O3, NO2 and SO2: a review and some case studies

The use of passive sampler systems is reviewed and discussed. These devices are able to determine both spatial and temporal differences in canopy exposure, as is demonstrated by their use in extensive monitoring of air-pollution exposure in forest health plots. Categorising forest health monitoring plots according to air-pollution exposure permits cause-effect analysis of certain forest health responses. In addition, passive sampling may identify areas affected by interaction between different gaseous pollutants. Passive samplers at the stand level can be used to resolve vertical profiles of ozone within the stand, and edge effects, which are important in exposure of understorey and ground flora. Recent case studies using passive samplers to determine forest exposure to gaseous pollutants indicate a potential for the development of spatial models on regional-, landscape-, and stand-level scales and the verification of atmospheric transport models.     

A comparative study of prenatal ultrasound findings and post-mortem examination in a tertiary referral centre

This retrospective study compares the findings of prenatal ultrasound, performed in a tertiary fetal medicine centre, with the results of post-mortem examination in pregnancies complicated by suspected fetal abnormality that results in fetal loss. The study was carried out over a year at a teaching hospital, Fetal Medicine Centre and Regional Centre for Perinatal Pathology. Results were directly compared and the level of agreement between the ultrasound and post-mortem findings described. These were classified as having complete agreement; major agreement or major disagreement. The group of cases with major agreement between findings was further divided into those with significant, or minor, additional findings at post-mortem examination. Over the 12-month period, 153 ultrasound cases were identified, of which 47 were also examined by autopsy and were thus suitable for comparison in this study (30.7%). Complete agreement between ultrasound and post-mortem findings was found in 22 cases (46.8%). In 24 cases (51.1%), major agreement between ultrasound and post-mortem findings was seen. Of these, 11 had minor additional findings at post-mortem examination and 13 were found to have significant additional findings at post-mortem (27.7%), adding to the eventual diagnosis. In 12.8% of cases, post-mortem examination provided a definitive diagnosis. Only in one case was there complete discordance in the findings of the ultrasound examination and the autopsy (2.1%). No major disagreement between ultrasound and post-mortem findings was seen in 98% of cases. This study confirms the accuracy of prenatal ultrasound diagnosis in specialist centres, whilst emphasising the continuing importance of post-mortem examination in cases of fetal malformation to refine and, in some cases, define the diagnosis. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

POLICY IMPACTS ON AGRICULTURAL IRRIGATION ELECTRICITY DEMAND IN THE COLUMBIA BASIN1

ABSTRACT: Accurately estimating the price elasticity of demand for irrigation electricity is important to major electricity suppliers such as the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) of the Pacific Northwest. The BPA has a revenue maximization objective, and the elasticity of demand is central to its rate setting process. Several studies have attempted to estimate demand for irrigation electricity, but none has explicitly included federal agricultural policy and program variables. Tins paper discusses how agricultural programs may influence farmers irrigation decisions and thus their demand for irrigation electricity. It suggests that existing programs serve to make farmers more responsive to electricity rate increases than would otherwise be the case. Thus, studies that fail to include them may underestimate the responsiveness of farmers to electricity rate increases.     

Forests and competing land uses in Kenya

Indigenous forests in Kenya, as in other developing countries, are under heavy pressure from competing agricultural land uses and from unsustainable cutting. The problem in Kenya is compounded by high population growth rates and an agriculturally based economy, which, even with efforts to control birth rates and industrialize, will persist into the next century. Both ecological and economic consequences of these pressures need to be considered in land-use decision making for land and forest management to be effective. This paper presents one way to combine ecological and economic considerations. The status of principal forest areas in Kenya is summarized and competing land uses compared on the basis of ecological functions and economic analysis. Replacement uses do not match the ecological functions of forest, although established stands of tree crops (forest plantations, fuel wood, tea) can have roughly comparable effects on soil and water resources. Indigenous forests have high, although difficult to estimate, economic benefits from tourism and protection of downstream agricultural productivity. Economic returns from competing land uses range widely, with tea having the highest and fuel wood plantations having returns comparable to some annual crops and dairying. Consideration of ecological and economic factors together suggests some trade-offs for improving land allocation decisions and several management opportunities for increasing benefits or reducing costs from particular land uses. The evaluation also suggests a general strategy for forest land management in Kenya.The views and interpretations expressed in this article are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the World Bank, its affiliated organizations, or any individual acting on their behalf.