The Impact of Projected Climate Change Scenarios on Nitrogen Yield at a Regional Scale for the Contiguous United States

Improved understanding of the potential regional impacts of projected climatic changes on nitrogen yield is needed to inform water resources management throughout the United States (U.S.). The objective of this research is to look broadly at watersheds in the contiguous U.S. to assess the potential regional impact of changes in precipitation (P) and air temperature (T) on nitrogen yield. The SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes model and downscaled P and T outputs from 14 general circulation models were used to explore impacts on nitrogen yield. Results of the analysis suggest that projected changes in P and T will decrease nitrogen yield for the majority of the contiguous U.S., including the watersheds of the Chesapeake Bay and Gulf of Mexico. Some regions, however, such as the Pacific Northwest and Northern California, are projected to face climatic conditions that, according to the model results, may increase nitrogen yield. Combining the projections of climate‐driven changes in nitrogen yield with projected changes in watershed nitrogen inputs could help water resource managers develop regionally specific, long‐term strategies to mitigate nitrogen pollution.     

Spatiotemporal variability in surface energy balance across tundra,snow and ice in Greenland

The surface energy balance (SEB) is essential for understanding the coupled cryosphere–atmosphere system in the Arctic. In this study, we investigate the spatiotemporal variability in SEB across tundra, snow and ice. During the snow-free period, the main energy sink for ice sites is surface melt. For tundra, energy is used for sensible and latent heat flux and soil heat flux leading to permafrost thaw. Longer snow-free period increases melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet and glaciers and may promote tundra permafrost thaw. During winter, clouds have a warming effect across surface types whereas during summer clouds have a cooling effect over tundra and a warming effect over ice, reflecting the spatial variation in albedo. The complex interactions between factors affecting SEB across surface types remain a challenge for understanding current and future conditions. Extended monitoring activities coupled with modelling efforts are essential for assessing the impact of warming in the Arctic.     

Prediction of odor from pig production based on chemical odorants

The present work was performed to investigate the use of odorant measurements for prediction of odor concentration in facilities with growing-finishing pigs and to analyze the odorant composition in facilities with different floor and ventilation systems. Air was sampled in Nalophan bags, odor concentrations were measured by dilution-to-threshold olfactometry, and concentrations of odorants were measured by proton-transfer-reaction mass spectrometry (PTR-MS). Olfactometry and chemical analyses were synchronized to take place at identical time intervals after sampling. A principal component analysis revealed that different facilities for growing-finishing pigs can be distinguished based on the odorants. Pit ventilation comprising a small amount of the total ventilation air (10-20%) in facilities with both room and pit ventilation can be used to concentrate odorants, whereas the room ventilation contains lower concentrations of most odorants. A partial least squares regression model demonstrated that prediction of the odor concentration based on odorants measured by PTR-MS is feasible. Hydrogen sulfide, methanethiol, trimethylamine, and 4-methylphenol were identified as the compounds having the largest influence on the prediction of odor concentration, whereas carboxylic acids had no significant influence. In conclusion, chemical measurement of odorants by PTR-MS is an alternative for expressing the odor concentration in facilities with growing-finishing pigs that can be used to increase the understanding of odor from different types of facilities and improve the development of odor reduction technologies.     

The Significance of the North Water Polynya to Arctic Top Predators

The North Water polynya (~76°N to 79°N and 70°W to 80°W) is known to be an important habitat for several species of marine mammals and sea birds. For millennia, it has provided the basis for subsistence hunting and human presence in the northernmost part of Baffin Bay. The abundance of air-breathing top predators also represents a potential source of nutrient cycling that maintains primary production. In this study, aerial surveys conducted in 2009 and 2010 were used for the first time to map the distribution and estimate the abundance of top predators during spring in the North Water. Belugas (Delphinapterus leucas) were not detected north of 77°20′N but were found along the coast of West Greenland and offshore in the middle of the North Water with an abundance estimated at 2245 (95 % CI 1811–2783). Narwhals (Monodon monoceros) were widely distributed on the eastern side of the North Water with an estimate of abundance of 7726 (3761–15 870). Walruses (Odobenus rosmarus) were found across the North Water over both shallow and deep (>500 m) water with an estimated abundance of 1499 (1077–2087). Bearded (Erignathus barbatus) and ringed seals (Phoca hispida) used the large floes of ice in the southeastern part of the North Water for hauling out. Most polar bears (Ursus maritimus) were detected in the southern part of the polynya. The abundances of bearded and ringed seals were 6016 (3322–10 893) and 9529 (5460–16 632), respectively, and that of polar bears was 60 (12–292). Three sea bird species were distributed along the Greenland coast (eiders, Somateria spp.), in leads and cracks close to the Greenland coast (little auks, Alle alle) or widely in open water (thick-billed guillemots, Uria lomvia).     

Quantifying changes to historic fish habitat extent on north coast NSW floodplains,Australia

Global degradation of coastal ecosystems is influencing the provision of ecosystem services, including fisheries maintenance services. Degradation of the Australian coastal zone and its resources following European occupation has been recognised for some time. This includes the loss of ecologically important coastal wetlands, which have strong trophic and habitat links to fisheries. In NSW, structural flood mitigation works are a principle driver of the decline of coastal wetlands; however, little action has been taken to quantify the extent of decline due to limited information of the pre-European settlement extent of coastal wetlands. We use spatial data sets in GIS to quantify prime fish habitat and calculate the loss of fish habitat for the large coastal floodplains of northern NSW, which are significant contributors to the commercial and recreational fisheries of NSW. The technique is validated by comparison with early maps of wetland distribution. We identified pre-European distribution of available fish habitat of approximately 477,000 ha, of which 87,000 ha was identified as prime fish habitat. Approximately 62,000 ha of prime fish habitat was impacted by drainage of the coastal floodplains in association with flood mitigation works which intensified in the mid-1950s and were largely completed by 1971, equating to a loss of approximately 72 % of prime fish habitat. The declining value of the ecosystem services provided by prime fish habitat following drainage is likely to be substantial. Some actions have taken place to restore the functions of this habitat although significant opportunities remain to reverse this decline through management actions that restore natural drainage and reinstate tidal exchange. These actions become even more important as pressures on coastal wetlands increase with climate change and associated sea-level rise.     

Assessment of a regulatory model's performance relative to large spatial heterogeneity in observed ozone in Houston,Texas

In Houston, some of the highest measured 8-hr ozone (O₃) peaks are characterized by sudden increases in observed concentrations of at least 40 ppb in 1 hr, or 60 ppb in 2 hr. Measurements show that these large hourly changes appear at only a few monitors and span a narrow geographic area, suggesting a spatially heterogeneous field of O₃ concentrations. This study assessed whether a regulatory air quality model (AQM) can simulate this observed behavior. The AQM did not reproduce the magnitude or location of some of the highest observed hourly O₃ changes, and it also failed to capture the limited spatial extent. On days with measured large hourly changes in O₃ concentrations, the AQM predicted high O₃ over large regions of Houston, resulting in overpredictions at several monitors. This analysis shows that the model can make high O₃, but on these days the predicted spatial field suggests that the model had a different cause. Some observed large hourly changes in O₃ concentrations have been linked to random releases of industrial volatile organic compounds (VOCs). In the AQM emission inventory, there are several emission events when an industrial point source increases VOC emissions in excess of 10,000 mol/hr. One instance increased predicted downwind O₃ concentrations up to 25 ppb. These results show that the modeling system is responsive to a large VOC release, but the timing and location of the release, and meteorological conditions, are critical requirements. Attainment of the O₃ standard requires the use of observational data and AQM predictions. If the large observed hourly changes are indicative of a separate cause of high O₃, then the model may not include that cause, which might result in regulators enacting control strategies that could be ineffective.

Implications To show the attainment of the O₃ standard, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) requires the use of observations and model predictions under the assumption that simulations are capable of reproducing observed phenomena. The regulatory model is unable to reproduce observed behavior measured in the observational database. If the large observed hourly changes were indicative of a separate cause of high O₃, then the model would not include that cause. Inaccurate model predictions may prompt air quality regulators to enact control strategies that are effective in the modeling system, but prove ineffective in the real world.     

Vascular function and short-term exposure to fine particulate air pollution

Exposure to fine particulate air pollution has been implicated as a risk factor for cardiopulmonary disease and mortality. Proposed biological pathways imply that particle-induced pulmonary and systemic inflammation play a role in activating the vascular endothelium and altering vascular function. Potential effects of fine particulate pollution on vascular function are explored using controlled chamber exposure and uncontrolled ambient exposure. Research subjects included four panels with a total of 26 healthy nonsmoking young adults. On two study visits, at least 7 days apart, subjects spent 3 hr in a controlled-exposure chamber exposed to 150-200 microg/m3 of fine particles generated from coal or wood combustion and 3 hr in a clean room, with exposure and nonexposure periods alternated between visits. Baseline, postexposure, and post-clean room reactive hyperemia-peripheral arterial tonometry (RH-PAT) was conducted. A microvascular responsiveness index, defined as the log of the RH-PAT ratio, was calculated. There was no contemporaneous vascular response to the few hours of controlled exposure. Declines in vascular response were associated with elevated ambient exposures for the previous 2 days, especially for female subjects. Cumulative exposure to real-life fine particulate pollution may affect vascular function. More research is needed to determine the roles of age and gender, the effect of pollution sources, the importance of cumulative exposure over a few days versus a few hours, and the lag time between exposure and response.     

Revision of deposition and weathering parameters for the ingestion dose module (ECOSYS) of the ARGOS and RODOS decision support systems

The ECOSYS model is the ingestion dose model integrated in the ARGOS and RODOS decision support systems for nuclear emergency management. The parameters used in this model have however not been updated in recent years, where the level of knowledge on various environmental processes has increased considerably. A Nordic work group has carried out a series of evaluations of the general validity of current ECOSYS default parameters. This paper specifically discusses the parameter revisions required with respect to the modelling of deposition and natural weathering of contaminants on agricultural crops, to enable the trustworthy prognostic modelling that is essential to ensure justification and optimisation of countermeasure strategies. New modelling approaches are outlined, since it was found that current ECOSYS approaches for deposition and natural weathering could lead to large prognostic errors.