The effectiveness of forecast-based humanitarian assistance in anticipation of extreme winters: a case study of vulnerable herders in Mongolia

This paper presents evidence relating to a forecast-based cash and non-food item distribution among vulnerable herder households during the 2017–18 dzud (extreme winter) season in Mongolia, and analyses the results of a quasi-experimental study evaluating its impacts. An innovative approach in disaster risk reduction, forecast-based financing (FbF) can have short- and long-term benefits to vulnerable households but remains understudied. The paper contributes information on a multimodal FbF programme offering one-off cash grants and in-kind veterinary kits. The data found significant effects of reduced mortality and increased offspring survival in some types of livestock, and that the timing of FbF assistance is crucial, as reported early assistance correlated to positive outcomes in terms of reduced animal mortality. These findings can be used to design more effective FbF interventions, to understand better the appropriateness of FbF designs, and to use early warnings and early actions to help people prepare and withstand disasters such as dzuds.     

Hydrologic regime and herbivory stabilize an alternative state in Yellowstone National Park.

A decline in the stature and abundance of willows during the 20th century occurred throughout the northern range of Yellowstone National Park, where riparian woody-plant communities are key components in multiple-trophic-level interactions. The potential causes of willow decline include climate change, increased elk browsing coincident with the loss of an apex predator, the gray wolf, and an absence of habitat engineering by beavers. The goal of this study was to determine the spatial and temporal patterns of willow establishment through the 20th century and to identify causal processes. Sampled willows established from 1917 to 1999 and contained far fewer young individuals than was predicted from a modeled stable willow population, indicating reduced establishment during recent decades. Two hydrologically distinct willow establishment environments were identified: fine-grained beaver pond sediments and coarse-grained alluvium. Willows established on beaver pond sediment earlier in time, higher on floodplain surfaces, and farther from the current stream channel than did willows on alluvial sediment. Significant linear declines from the 1940s to the 1990s in alluvial willow establishment elevation and lateral distance from the stream channel resulted in a much reduced area of alluvial willow establishment. Willow establishment was not well correlated with climate-driven hydrologic variables, but the trends were consistent with the effects of stream channel incision initiated in ca. 1950, 20-30 years after beaver dam abandonment. Radiocarbon dates and floodplain stratigraphy indicate that stream incision of the present magnitude may be unprecedented in the past two millennia. We propose that hydrologic changes, stemming from competitive exclusion of beaver by elk overbrowsing, caused the landscape to transition from a historical beaver-pond and willow-mosaic state to its current alternative stable state where active beaver dams and many willow stands are absent. Because of hydrologic changes in streams, a rapid return to the historical state may not occur by reduction of elk browsing alone. Management intervention to restore the historical hydrologic regime may be necessary to recover willows and beavers across the landscape.     

Separation and capture of CO2 from large stationary sources and sequestration in geological formations--coalbeds and deep saline aquifers

The topic of global warming as a result of increased atmospheric CO2 concentration is arguably the most important environmental issue that the world faces today. It is a global problem that will need to be solved on a global level. The link between anthropogenic emissions of CO2 with increased atmospheric CO2 levels and, in turn, with increased global temperatures has been well established and accepted by the world. International organizations such as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have been formed to address this issue. Three options are being explored to stabilize atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and global temperatures without severely and negatively impacting standard of living: (1) increasing energy efficiency, (2) switching to less carbon-intensive sources of energy, and (3) carbon sequestration. To be successful, all three options must be used in concert. The third option is the subject of this review. Specifically, this review will cover the capture and geologic sequestration of CO2 generated from large point sources, namely fossil-fuel-fired power gasification plants. Sequestration of CO2 in geological formations is necessary to meet the President's Global Climate Change Initiative target of an 18% reduction in GHG intensity by 2012. Further, the best strategy to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of CO2 results from a multifaceted approach where sequestration of CO2 into geological formations is combined with increased efficiency in electric power generation and utilization, increased conservation, increased use of lower carbon-intensity fuels, and increased use of nuclear energy and renewables. This review covers the separation and capture of CO2 from both flue gas and fuel gas using wet scrubbing technologies, dry regenerable sorbents, membranes, cryogenics, pressure and temperature swing adsorption, and other advanced concepts. Existing commercial CO2 capture facilities at electric power-generating stations based on the use of monoethanolamine are described, as is the Rectisol process used by Dakota Gasification to separate and capture CO2 from a coal gasifier. Two technologies for storage of the captured CO2 are reviewed--sequestration in deep unmineable coalbeds with concomitant recovery of CH4 and sequestration in deep saline aquifers. Key issues for both of these techniques include estimating the potential storage capacity, the storage integrity, and the physical and chemical processes that are initiated by injecting CO2 underground. Recent studies using computer modeling as well as laboratory and field experimentation are presented here. In addition, several projects have been initiated in which CO2 is injected into a deep coal seam or saline aquifer. The current status of several such projects is discussed. Included is a commercial-scale project in which a million tons of CO2 are injected annually into an aquifer under the North Sea in Norway. The review makes the case that this can all be accomplished safely with off-the-shelf technologies. However, substantial research and development must be performed to reduce the cost, decrease the risks, and increase the safety of sequestration technologies. This review also includes discussion of possible problems related to deep injection of CO2. There are safety concerns that need to be addressed because of the possibilities of leakage to the surface and induced seismic activity. These issues are presented along with a case study of a similar incident in the past. It is clear that monitoring and verification of storage will be a crucial part of all geological sequestration practices so that such problems may be avoided. Available techniques include direct measurement of CO2 and CH4 surface soil fluxes, the use of chemical tracers, and underground 4-D seismic monitoring. Ten new hypotheses were formulated to describe what happens when CO2 is pumped into a coal seam. These hypotheses provide significant insight into the fundamental chemical, physical, and thermodynamic phenomena that occur during coal seam sequestration of CO2.     

Experimental investigation of false positive errors in auditory species occurrence surveys

False positive errors are a significant component of many ecological data sets, which in combination with false negative errors, can lead to severe biases in conclusions about ecological systems. We present results of a field experiment where observers recorded observations for known combinations of electronically broadcast calling anurans under conditions mimicking field surveys to determine species occurrence. Our objectives were to characterize false positive error probabilities for auditory methods based on a large number of observers, to determine if targeted instruction could be used to reduce false positive error rates, and to establish useful predictors of among-observer and among-species differences in error rates. We recruited 31 observers, ranging in abilities from novice to expert, who recorded detections for 12 species during 180 calling trials (66,960 total observations). All observers made multiple false positive errors, and on average 8.1% of recorded detections in the experiment were false positive errors. Additional instruction had only minor effects on error rates. After instruction, false positive error probabilities decreased by 16% for treatment individuals compared to controls with broad confidence interval overlap of 0 (95% CI:--46 to 30%). This coincided with an increase in false negative errors due to the treatment (26%;--3 to 61%). Differences among observers in false positive and in false negative error rates were best predicted by scores from an online test and a self-assessment of observer ability completed prior to the field experiment. In contrast, years of experience conducting call surveys was a weak predictor of error rates. False positive errors were also more common for species that were played more frequently but were not related to the dominant spectral frequency of the call. Our results corroborate other work that demonstrates false positives are a significant component of species occurrence data collected by auditory methods. Instructing observers to only report detections they are completely certain are correct is not sufficient to eliminate errors. As a result, analytical methods that account for false positive errors will be needed, and independent testing of observer ability is a useful predictor for among-observer variation in observation error rates.     

Remediation of oil spills in temperate and tropical coastal marine environments

Oil is the world’s primary source of non-renewable energy, and it has also contaminated ocean coastlines due to spills. It is therefore important to have remediation treatments that are both effective, and ecologically not harmful. Current in situ bioremediation methods consist primarily of biostimulation, through addition of nutrients, and bioaugmentation, the addition of hydrocarbon degrading microorganisms. The purpose of this article is to discuss successful and unsuccessful remediation through the use of biostimulation, bioaugmentation, or a combination of both. As microbial treatments are capable of enhancing coastal oil remediation in temperate and tropical settings, the success of a particular remediation approach will be determined based on the type and amount of oil, type of soil and/or sediment, microbial inoculants and the often changing physical, chemical and biological environmental conditions. Environmental factors and limitations will be discussed as to why certain bioremediation events were successful while others were not.     

Improving occupancy estimation when two types of observational error occur: non-detection and species misidentification

Efforts to draw inferences about species occurrence frequently account for false negatives, the common situation when individuals of a species are not detected even when a site is occupied. However, recent studies suggest the need to also deal with false positives, which occur when species are misidentified so that a species is recorded as detected when a site is unoccupied. Bias in estimators of occupancy, colonization, and extinction can be severe when false positives occur. Accordingly, we propose models that simultaneously account for both types of error. Our approach can be used to improve estimates of occupancy for study designs where a subset of detections is of a type or method for which false positives can be assumed to not occur. We illustrate properties of the estimators with simulations and data for three species of frogs. We show that models that account for possible misidentification have greater support (lower AIC for two species) and can yield substantially different occupancy estimates than those that do not. When the potential for misidentification exists, researchers should consider analytical techniques that can account for this source of error, such as those presented here.     

Scale-dependent responses of plant biodiversity to nitrogen enrichment

Experimental studies demonstrating that nitrogen (N) enrichment reduces plant diversity within individual plots have led to the conclusion that anthropogenic N enrichment is a threat to global biodiversity. These conclusions overlook the influence of spatial scale, however, as N enrichment may alter beta diversity (i.e., how similar plots are in their species composition), which would likely alter the degree to which N-induced changes in diversity within localities translate to changes in diversity at larger scales that are relevant to policy and management. Currently, it is unclear how N enrichment affects biodiversity at scales larger than a small plot. We synthesized data from 18 N-enrichment experiments across North America to examine the effects of N enrichment on plant species diversity at three spatial scales: small (within plots), intermediate (among plots), and large (within and among plots). We found that N enrichment reduced plant diversity within plots by an average of 25% (ranging from a reduction of 61% to an increase of 5%) and frequently enhanced beta diversity. The extent to which N enrichment altered beta diversity, however, varied substantially among sites (from a 22% increase to an 18% reduction) and was contingent on site productivity. Specifically, N enrichment enhanced beta diversity at low-productivity sites but reduced beta diversity at high-productivity sites. N-induced changes in beta diversity generally reduced the extent of species loss at larger scales to an average of 22% (ranging from a reduction of 54% to an increase of 18%). Our results demonstrate that N enrichment often reduces biodiversity at both local and regional scales, but that a focus on the effects of N enrichment on biodiversity at small spatial scales may often overestimate (and sometimes underestimate) declines in regional biodiversity by failing to recognize the effects of N on beta diversity.     

Exploitative competition between invasive herbivores benefits a native host plant

Although biological invasions are of considerable concern to ecologists, relatively little attention has been paid to the potential for and consequences of indirect interactions between invasive species. Such interactions are generally thought to enhance invasives' spread and impact (i.e., the "invasional meltdown" hypothesis); however, exotic species might also act indirectly to slow the spread or blunt the impact of other invasives. On the east coast of the United States, the invasive hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae, HWA) and elongate hemlock scale (Fiorinia externa, EHS) both feed on eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis). Of the two insects, HWA is considered far more damaging and disproportionately responsible for hemlock mortality. We describe research assessing the interaction between HWA and EHS, and the consequences of this interaction for eastern hemlock. We conducted an experiment in which uninfested hemlock branches were experimentally infested with herbivores in a 2 x 2 factorial design (either, both, or neither herbivore species). Over the 2.5-year course of the experiment, each herbivore's density was approximately 30% lower in mixed- vs. single-species treatments. Intriguingly, however, interspecific competition weakened rather than enhanced plant damage: growth was lower in the HWA-only treatment than in the HWA + EHS, EHS-only, or control treatments. Our results suggest that, for HWA-infested hemlocks, the benefit of co-occurring EHS infestations (reduced HWA density) may outweigh the cost (increased resource depletion).     

Predator hunting mode and habitat domain alter nonconsumptive effects in predator-prey interactions

Predators can affect prey populations through changes in traits that reduce predation risk. These trait changes (nonconsumptive effects, NCEs) can be energetically costly and cause reduced prey activity, growth, fecundity, and survival. The strength of nonconsumptive effects may vary with two functional characteristics of predators: hunting mode (actively hunting, sit-and-pursue, sit-and-wait) and habitat domain (the ability to pursue prey via relocation in space; can be narrow or broad). Specifically, cues from fairly stationary sit-and-wait and sit-and-pursue predators should be more indicative of imminent predation risk, and thereby evoke stronger NCEs, compared to cues from widely ranging actively hunting predators. Using a meta-analysis of 193 published papers, we found that cues from sit-and-pursue predators evoked stronger NCEs than cues from actively hunting predators. Predator habitat domain was less indicative of NCE strength, perhaps because habitat domain provides less reliable information regarding imminent risk to prey than does predator hunting mode. Given the importance of NCEs in determining the dynamics of prey communities, our findings suggest that predator characteristics may be used to predict how changing predator communities translate into changes in prey. Such knowledge may prove particularly useful given rates of local predator change due to habitat fragmentation and the introduction of novel predators.