THE USE OF MULTIPLE REGRESSION MODELS IN PREDICTING SEDIMENT YIELD1

ABSTRACT. Four commonly used models for predicting sediment yield are analyzed and compared using previously published data. Three of these models involve logarithmic transformations. Some of the problems involved in transforming data are discussed in the context of logarithmic transformations. These problems are illustrated using the results of standard regression analyses and economic loss function analyses. For the data analyzed, the linear model is preferable to each of the logarithmic models on the basis of each analysis, and the usual multiple objective nature of the model choice problem is thus modified. The extent to which these results can be generalized is discussed in the context of model choice.     

Managing resources and resolving conflicts: national parks and local people

One of the major management problems in protected areas of developing nations is the ever more intensifying land use disputes with local, often native, people. The customary rights oflocal people over natural resources, if curtailed by the establishment of national parks, and their disregard by decision-makers, have given rise to open conflicts, thus jeopardizing conservation goals. These conflicts have tremendous impact on the management of natural resources, not only within the park ecosystem but also in its surroundings. To attain the interdependent goals of conservation and sustainable development, such disputes must be promptly and consensually settled. This paper briefly discusses the paradigm of national park establishment and its impact on local livelihood. It then highlights major sources of conflict which have occurred in national parks in developing countries. Some theoretical approaches to conflict resolution as relevant to national parks are summarized, and several strategies, as employed in particular situations, are discussed. It is concluded that an in-depth understanding of human ecology beyond the boundaries of parks and the conceptualization of strategies to resolve the innate problems are imperative. The integration of several strategies is deemed essential in order to address issues comprehensively and on a larger scale.     

Demography and interannual variability of salp swarms (Thalia democratica)

Swarms of the pelagic tunicate, Thalia democratica, form during spring, but the causes of the large interannual variability in the magnitude of salp swarms are unclear. Changes in asexual reproduction (buds per chain) of T. democratica populations in the coastal waters of south-east Australia (32–35°S) were observed in three austral springs (October 2008–2010). T. democratica abundance was significantly higher in 2008 (1,312 individuals m^?3) than 2009 and 2010 (210 and 92 individuals m^?3, respectively). There was a significant negative relationship (linear regression, r ² = 0.61, F _1,22 = 33.83, P < 0.001) between abundance and asexual reproduction. Similarly, relative growth rates declined with decreasing abundance. Generalised additive mixed modelling showed that T. democratica abundance was significantly positively related to preferred food >2 μm in size (P < 0.05) and negatively related to the proportion of non-salp zooplankton (P < 0.001). Salp swarm magnitude, growth, and asexual reproduction may depend on the abundance of larger phytoplankton (prymnesiophytes and diatoms) and competition with other zooplankton.     

Strong site fidelity and longer internesting interval for solitary nesting olive ridley sea turtles in Brazil

Olive ridley sea turtles display two different types of nesting behavior: in arribada (synchronous mass nesting) or solitarily. Contrarily to arribadas, little has been published about solitary nesters. This study aimed to expand the knowledge on internesting interval and site fidelity of solitary nesting olive ridleys and to test a possible development of arribada nesting behavior. Data were collected in Sergipe (Brazil) over 125 km of beach from 10°30′S/36o23′W to 11°26′S/37o19′W, between nesting seasons 2004/2005 and 2006/2007. From 962 tagged females, 173 were seen renesting. The average internesting interval found was longer (22.35 ± 7.01 days) than previously described, which might relate to lower water temperatures during the internesting period. Olive ridleys at Sergipe showed high nesting site fidelity, with consecutive nesting events occurring in close proximity, non-randomly and dependently of previous events. Most of the consecutive nests were separated by 4.06–5.59 km. Development of arribada nesting behavior was not confirmed.     

A methodological framework for integrating computational fluid dynamics and ecological models applied to juvenile freshwater mussel dispersal in the Upper Mississippi River

Interdisciplinary research in hydraulics and ecology for river management and restoration must integrate processes that occur over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales, which presents a challenge to ecohydraulics modelers. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models are being more widely used to determine flow fields for ecohydraulics applications. In the Upper Mississippi River (UMR), the mussel dynamics model was developed as a tool for management and conservation of freshwater mussels (Unionidae), which are benthic organisms, imperiled in North America, that are inextricably linked with the hydraulics of river flow. We updated the juvenile dispersal component of the mussel dynamics model by using stochastic Lagrangian particle tracking in a three dimensional flow field output from CFD models of reaches in the UMR. We developed a methodological framework to integrate hydrodynamic data with the mussel dynamics model, and we demonstrate the use of the juvenile dispersal model employed within the methodological framework in two reaches of the UMR. The method was used to test the hypothesis that impoundment affects the relationship of some hydraulic parameters with juvenile settling distribution. Simulation results were consistent with this hypothesis, and the relationships of bed shear stress and Froude number with juvenile settling were altered by impoundment most likely through effects on local hydraulics. The methodological framework is robust, integrates Eulerian and Lagrangian reference frameworks, and incorporates processes over a wide range of temporal and spatial scales, from watershed scale hydrologic processes (decades), to reach scale (km) processes that occur over hours or days, and turbulent processes on spatial scales of meter to millimeter and times scales of seconds. The methods are presently being used to assess the impacts of pre- and early post-settlement processes on mussel distributions, including the effects of bed shear stress, and the sensitivity of the location of the host fish when juveniles excyst, on juvenile settling distribution.