Utility analysis for the probationary selection decision to obtain a fixed quota of successful selectees

This article presents the extension of the one-cohort probationary selection (OCPS) framework (De Corte, 1994) to a multiple cohort model and shows how the extension can be applied to estimate the utility of probationary selection with replacement (PSWR) when a fixed quota of successfully performing selectees is required. Next, formulas to compute the net present value of the OCPS and the PSWR approach to the selection of a fixed quota of successful employees are derived. The equations indicate that the latter approach will usually lead to a higher utility, but not necessarily to a higher net present value of the predictor selected workforce. This finding, which is corroborated by the results of an example application, is of immediate practical relevance because it justifies the probationary selection with replacement practice that is adopted in many West European countries. Finally, the example results suggest also that the traditional Brogden–Cronbach–Gleser framework generally overestimates the incremental utility of using a predictor when the objective is to select a fixed quota of successful selectees. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Biodiversity Differences between Managed and Unmanaged Forests: Meta-Analysis of Species Richness in Europe

Abstract: Past and present pressures on forest resources have led to a drastic decrease in the surface area of unmanaged forests in Europe. Changes in forest structure, composition, and dynamics inevitably lead to changes in the biodiversity of forest‐dwelling species. The possible biodiversity gains and losses due to forest management (i.e., anthropogenic pressures related to direct forest resource use), however, have never been assessed at a pan‐European scale. We used meta‐analysis to review 49 published papers containing 120 individual comparisons of species richness between unmanaged and managed forests throughout Europe. We explored the response of different taxonomic groups and the variability of their response with respect to time since abandonment and intensity of forest management. Species richness was slightly higher in unmanaged than in managed forests. Species dependent on forest cover continuity, deadwood, and large trees (bryophytes, lichens, fungi, saproxylic beetles) and carabids were negatively affected by forest management. In contrast, vascular plant species were favored. The response for birds was heterogeneous and probably depended more on factors such as landscape patterns. The global difference in species richness between unmanaged and managed forests increased with time since abandonment and indicated a gradual recovery of biodiversity. Clearcut forests in which the composition of tree species changed had the strongest effect on species richness, but the effects of different types of management on taxa could not be assessed in a robust way because of low numbers of replications in the management‐intensity classes. Our results show that some taxa are more affected by forestry than others, but there is a need for research into poorly studied species groups in Europe and in particular locations. Our meta‐analysis supports the need for a coordinated European research network to study and monitor the biodiversity of different taxa in managed and unmanaged forests.     

Performance assessment of NAPL remediation in heterogeneous alluvium

Over the last few years, more than 40 partitioning interwell tracer tests (PITTs) have been conducted at many different sites to measure nonaqueous phase liquid (NAPL) saturations in the subsurface. While the main goal of these PITTs was to estimate the NAPL volume in the subsurface, some were specifically conducted to assess the performance of remedial actions involving NAPL removal. In this paper, we present a quantitative approach to assess the performance of remedial actions to recover NAPL that can be used to assess any NAPL removal technology. It combines the use of PITTs (to estimate the NAPL volume in the swept pore volume between injection and extraction wells of a test area) with the use of several cores to determine the vertical NAPL distribution in the subsurface. We illustrate the effectiveness of such an approach by assessing the performance of a surfactant/foam flood conducted at Hill Air Force Base, UT, to remove a TCE-rich NAPL from alluvium with permeability contrasts as high as one order of magnitude. In addition, we compare the NAPL volumes determined by the PITTs with volumes estimated through geostatistical interpolation of aquifer sediment core data collected with a vertical frequency of 5-10 cm and a lateral borehole spacing of 0.15 m. We demonstrate the use of several innovations including the explicit estimation of not only the errors associated with NAPL volumes and saturations derived from PITTs but also the heterogeneity of the aquifer sediments based upon permeability estimates. Most importantly, we demonstrate the reliability of the     

Influence of Landscape Elements in Riparian Buffers on the Conservation of Semiaquatic Amphibians

Abstract:  Studies on riparian buffers have usually focused on the amount of land needed as habitat for the terrestrial life stages of semiaquatic species. Nevertheless, the landscape surrounding wetlands is also important for other key processes, such as dispersal and the dynamics of metapopulations. Multiple elements that influence these processes should therefore be considered in the delineation of buffers. We analyzed landscape elements (forest cover, density of roads, and hydrographic network) in concentric buffers to evaluate the scale at which they influence stream amphibians in 77 distinct landscapes. To evaluate whether our results could be generalized to other contexts, we determined whether they were consistent across the study areas. Amphibians required buffers of 100–400 m of suitable terrestrial habitat, but interspecific differences in the amount of habitat were large. The presence of amphibians was related to roads and the hydrographic network at larger spatial scales (300–1500 m), which suggests that wider buffers are needed with these elements. This pattern probably arose because these elements influence dispersal and metapopulation persistence, processes that occur at large spatial scales. Furthermore, in some cases, analyses performed on different sets of landscapes provided different results, which suggests caution should be used when conservation recommendations are applied to disparate areas. Establishment of riparian buffers should not be focused only on riparian habitat, but should take a landscape perspective because semiaquatic species use multiple elements for different functions. This approach can be complex because different landscape elements require different spatial extents. Nevertheless, a shift of attention toward the management of different elements at multiple spatial scales is necessary for the long-term persistence of populations.     

Investigation of surfactant-enhanced dissolution of entrapped nonaqueous phase liquid chemicals in a two-dimensional groundwater flow field.

Because of their low solubility, waste chemicals in the form of nonaqueous phase liquids (NAPLs) that are entrapped in subsurface formations act as long-term sources of groundwater contamination. In the design of remediation schemes that use surfactants, it is necessary to estimate the mass transfer rate coefficients under multi-dimensional flow fields that exit at field sites. In this study, we investigate mass transfer under a two-dimensional flow field to obtain an understanding of the basic mechanisms of surfactant-enhanced dissolution and to quantify the mass transfer rates. Enhanced dissolution experiments in a two-dimensional test cell were conducted to measure rates of mass depletion from entrapped NAPLs to a flowing aqueous phase containing a surfactant. In situ measurement of transient saturation changes using a gamma attenuation system revealed dissolution patterns that are affected by the dimensionality of the groundwater flow field. Numerical modeling of local flow fields that changed with time, due to depletion of NAPL sources, enabled the examination of the basic mechanisms of NAPL dissolution in complex groundwater systems. Through nonlinear regression analysis, mass transfer rates were correlated to porous media properties, NAPL saturation and aqueous phase velocity. Results from the experiments and numerical analyses were used to identify deficiencies in existing methods of analysis that uses assumptions of one-dimensional flow, homogeneity of aquifer properties, local equilibrium and idealized transient mass transfer.     

A Global Baseline for Spawning Aggregations of Reef Fishes

Abstract: Species that periodically and predictably congregate on land or in the sea can be extremely vulnerable to overexploitation. Many coral reef fishes form spawning aggregations that are increasingly the target of fishing. Although serious declines are well known for a few species, the extent of this behavior among fishes and the impacts of aggregation fishing are not appreciated widely. To profile aggregating species globally, establish a baseline for future work, and strengthen the case for protection, we (as members of the Society for the Conservation of Reef Fish Aggregations) developed a global database on the occurrence, history, and management of spawning aggregations. We complemented the database with information from interviews with over 300 fishers in Asia and the western Pacific. Sixty‐seven species, mainly commercial, in 9 families aggregate to spawn in the 29 countries or territories considered in the database. Ninety percent of aggregation records were from reef pass channels, promontories, and outer reef‐slope drop‐offs. Multispecies aggregation sites were common, and spawning seasons of most species typically lasted <3 months. The best‐documented species in the database, the Nassau grouper (Epinephelus striatus), has undergone substantial declines in aggregations throughout its range and is now considered threatened. Our findings have important conservation and management implications for aggregating species given that exploitation pressures on them are increasing, there is little effective management, and 79% of those aggregations sufficiently well documented were reported to be in decline. Nonetheless, a few success stories demonstrate the benefits of aggregation management. A major shift in perspective on spawning aggregations of reef fish, from being seen as opportunities for exploitation to acknowledging them as important life‐history phenomena in need of management, is urgently needed.     

Identification of Tsuga Germplasm by Morphological Characters and RAPD Markers

Germplasm collection is important to preserve and maximize genetic diversity for germplasm conservation. Tsuga dumosa （ D. Don） Eichler in Engler ＆ Prantl. and T. chinensis var. forrestii （Downie） Silba germplasm was collected from three localities in China： Mt. Yulong, Wenfeng Temple and Mt. Dishiergu, Yunnan Province. Accessions were identified based on morphological characters and RAPD markers. The shapes of the apices and margins of needles were examined, and the length and width of needles, cones and seeds from accessions of mature plants were used to compare the morphological differences and to identify the germplasm. Molecular markers generated by randomly amplified polymorphic DNA （RAPD） were also used to characterize the taxa. Although the clustering based on RAPD markers was inconsistent with the morphological characters of the needles, based on the overall morphological characters and on RAPD markers, the accessions from Mt. Yulong and Wenfeng Temple were identified as T. chinertsis var. forrestii, and those from Mt. Dishiergu identified as T. dumosa. Taxonomic identification of the accessions was made based on morphology and by RAPD markers concurred. The results indicate that the shapes of the apices and margins of needles particularly from young plants could not be used as a possible key to identify T. dumosa and T. chinertsis var. forrestii. Fig 6, Tab 3, Ref24     

不同植被对工业污染区盐渍土的改良效果

以包头市西郊工业污染区盐渍化弃耕地为对象，研究了不同植被对土壤水盐动态和体积质量的影响。研究表明，造林后使林地内草本植物得到较快恢复，且归还土壤的枯落物比木本植物多，改良盐渍土壤和促进脱盐的作用较好；随植被盖度增加，盐渍土土壤含盐量和体积质量降低，盐渍土性状逐步改善。因此，在实施以耐盐树种造林为先导的工业污染区盐渍土恢复植被工程时，应适当降低造林密度，以利于林地内草本植物的恢复和建立林草复合植被，提高工业污染区盐渍土的生物治理效果。     

A comparison of employment growth and stability before and after the Fort Worth tornado

This study examined the time series pattern of employment growth and stability in Fort Worth, Texas taking into account the March 28, 2000 tornado. The tornado is treated econometrically as an intervention and both the mean and conditional variance of employment growth were estimated. Overall, this regional labor market experienced a decline in the employment growth rate following the tornado. Among the sectors that exhibited differences in employment dynamics between the pre- and post-tornado periods, the mining sector experienced a significant increase in employment growth following the tornado while the service andwholesale, retail trade sectors experienced significant declines in employment growth in the post-tornado period. The manufacturing, service, and wholesale, retail trade sectors were characterized by greater stability (i.e., a lower level of employment growth volatility) in the post-tornado period than in the pre-tornado period. Interestingly, in several sectors, no differences in the time series dynamics of employment growth were detected between the pre- and post-tornado periods. These sectors included construction, finance, insurance, real estate, government, and transportation and public utilities.