Determination of human error probabilities for offshore platform musters

The focus of this work is on prediction of human error probabilities during the process of emergency musters on offshore oil and gas production platforms. Due to a lack of human error databases, and in particular human error data for offshore platform musters, an expert judgment technique, the Success Likelihood Index Methodology (SLIM), was adopted as a vehicle to predict human error probabilities. Three muster scenarios of varying severity (man overboard, gas release, and fire and explosion) were studied in detail. A panel of 24 judges active in the offshore oil and gas industry provided data for both the weighting and rating of six performance shaping factors. These data were subsequently processed by means of SLIM to calculate the probability of success for 18 muster actions ranging from point of muster initiator to the final actions in the temporary safe refuge (TSR). The six performance shaping factors considered in this work were stress, complexity, training, experience, event factors and atmospheric factors.     

The 1998 Flood in Bangladesh: Is Different Targeting Needed During Emergencies and Recovery to Tackle Malnutrition?

Bangladesh suffered the century's worst flood during July-October 1998 and appealed for assistance. To provide information for appropriate interventions to tackle nutritional problems, a rapid assessment survey was conducted to look at the nutritional situation, problems encountered by the community, their coping mechanisms and rehabilitation priorities in six rural areas. The survey was repeated after four months to measure the outcome of activities during the flood and the necessity for future assistance. There were 3,048 children measured in both surveys (1,597 and 1,451). The sample of most interest was a sub-group of 180 children present in two previous independent surveys. The analysis found that while moving from the crisis period to post-flood phase there was evidence of a 'crossover phenomenon' in the recovery pattern of nutritional status. Sixty-eight per cent of the children who were malnourished (WHZ < -2SD) during the crisis period (18 per cent) recovered enough to cross the cut-off point and became normal after four months. Another 8 per cent of children (9 per cent of all normal) who were normal during the crisis period, after four months had deteriorated to be malnourished. Thus, despite there being a shift in the overall distribution of nutritional status, there has been another shift that reduced the net effect. Subsequent episodes of diarrhoea, access to food and loan burden had also influenced the recovery pattern of the children's nutritional status as evident from the statistically significant associations. These findings raise questions about targeting acute malnutrition during emergencies, and using the same criteria during both the crisis and rehabilitation phases.     

Assessment of risks posed by chemical industries—application of a new computer automated tool -III

The paper describes the application of a new computer automated tool, developed by us, in the risk analysis of a typical chemical industry engaged in the manufacture of linear alkyl benzene. Using the tool—a comprehensive software package -III (MAXimum CREDible accident analysis)—nine different scenarios, one for each storage unit, have been studied. It is observed that the accident scenario for chlorine (instantaneous release followed by dispersion) leads to the largest area-under-lethal-impact, while the accident scenario for propylene (CVCE followed by fireball) forecasts the most intense damage per unit area. The accidents involving propylene, benzene, and fuel oil have a high possibility of causing domino/secondary accidents as their destructive impacts (shock waves, heat load) would envelope other storage and process units.Besides demonstrating the utilizability of -III, this study also focuses attention on the need to bestow greater effort towards risk assessment/crisis management. The authors hope that the study will highlight the severity of the risk posed by the industry and thus generate safety consciousness among plant managers. The study may also help in developing accident-prevention strategies and the installation of damage control devices.     

Hybrid power supply solutions for off-grid green wireless networks

Increasing deployment of cellular networks across the globe is pushing the energy consumption in cellular networks at an exceptional rate. The integration of renewable energy (RE) harvesting technology into future mobile networks has the potential to positively cope with environmental contamination and ensure self-energy sustainability as a means to decrease fossil fuel consumption. Diesel generator (DG) in conjunction with on-site RE harvester has emerged as an economic and extent efficient option where commercial grid supply is not viable. This paper is focused on the cost aware energy management framework addressing to least net present cost (NPC) for the envisioned hybrid powered green cellular base stations (BSs) considering tempo-spatial traffic dynamics. In such wireless networks, solar photovoltaic modules are considered as a primary energy source, while the DG and energy storage device are kept as the standby supply in case of inadequate solar energy to ensure zero outage. A comprehensive simulation-based investigation is carried out in the context of downlink Long-Term Evolution (LTE) cellular networks for evaluating cost-efficiency and reliability performance under a wide range of network settings. Particularly, this paper examines the energy yield, greenhouse gas emissions, and cost analysis based on the optimal architecture of Remote Radio Head-enabled LTE BS. Moreover, wireless network performance in terms of throughput, energy efficiency gain, and radio efficiency is thoroughly investigated using Monte Carlo simulations. Numerical results demonstrate a substantial reduction of carbon footprints with minimum NPC while satisfying the quality of service requirements.     

Inherently safer design based on rapid risk analysis

The importance of inherently safer design (ISD) as a strategy to minimize risk of accidents in chemical process industries is being repeatedly stressed in recent years. The increasing number, frequency, and extents of damage caused by such accidents across the world have contributed to this thinking. However even as the need for ISD is being underscored, there are very few reports on precise methods to implement this concept. Significant recent reports are by Berge (1993Berge, 1995)who has suggested a scenariobased design procedure in which construction of accident scenarios in a structured manner is made the basis of ISD. We have been developing and applying the concept of rapid risk analysis ( [Khan & Abbasi, 1995] , [Khan & Abbasi, 1996] , [Khan & Abbasi, 1997a] , [Khan & Abbasi, 1997b] , [Khan & Abbasi, 1998a] and Khan &; Abbasi, 1998b). In this paper we present an approach to ISD utilizing this concept. We believe, as detailed in this paper, that this approach is a significant improvement upon Berge's procedure in terms of ease, speed, and effectiveness.     

Methane emissions and related physicochemical soil and water parameters in rice–fish systems in Bangladesh

Lowland rice fields constitute a semi aquatic environment, which is potentially suitable for fish production. Little is known about the effect of fish on greenhouse gas emissions from integrated rice–fish systems. An experiment was carried out at the Bangladesh Agricultural University to assess the effect of the stocking of fish on methane emissions from rice fields. Common carp, Cyprinus carpio L., and Nile Tilapia, Oreochromis niloticus (L.) were stocked in a mixed culture and subjected to three different input regimes: (1) urea fertilization according to the recommendation of the Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI), (2) supplementary feeding at 2 × maintenance level and (3) an elevated feeding schedule where 4 × maintenance level was fed initially and 2 × maintenance level towards the end of the growth period. Rice only with urea fertilization according to BRRI-recommendation was included as the control. The presence of fish increased methane emissions in all three rice–fish treatments. Average emission over the cropping season was 34, 37, and 32 mg m⁻² h⁻¹ in the rice–fish treatments, respectively, and 20 mg m⁻² h⁻¹ in rice only. Apart from an increase in methane emission, a significant drop (p < 0.05) in floodwater pH and dissolved oxygen concentration was observed in the rice–fish plots. Both parameters were the lowest in the treatment where a higher feeding rate was provided. Due to the fish activity, floodwater in the rice–fish treatments was more turbid, as reflected in higher particulate inorganic matter (PIOM). An elevated level of dissolved methane was observed in the floodwater of the feed supplemented rice–fish plots. Methane emissions showed negative correlation with morning and afternoon pH of the floodwater (r = −0.46; r = −0.56, p < 0.001) and morning and afternoon dissolved oxygen level (r = −0.53; r = −0.46, p < 0.001). Positive correlations were recorded between morning and afternoon floodwater temperature (r = 0.49; r = 0.44, p < 0.001) and with air temperature (r = 0.54, p < 0.001). The results suggest that the stocking of fish has an increasing effect on methane emissions from rice fields.     

Vertical distribution and contamination assessment of heavy metals in sediment cores of ship breaking area of Bangladesh

Environmental Geochemistry and Health - Vertical heavy metal profiling reflects the history of the deposition of metals and helps to understand the characteristics of accumulation in various layers...     

Disaster response preparedness coordination through social networks

Studies of coordination in human networks have typically presented models that require stable working relationships. These models cannot be applied to emergency response management, which demands distributed coordination in volatile situations. This paper argues that changes to interconnectedness of nodes in a network may have implications for the potential to coordinate. A social network‐based coordination model is proposed to explore an organizational actor's state of readiness in extreme conditions. To test this hypothesis, the study investigates survey data from state law enforcement, state emergency services and local law enforcement, presenting agency‐based (macro) and cross‐agency (micro) analysis on 224 completed questionnaires. The main findings are: (i) there is a positive correlation between network connectedness and the potential to coordinate; (ii) the concept of tiers within an emergency response network may exist and be characterized by the sub‐network with which an organization associates; (iii) a range or threshold characterizes how interconnected an organization at a given tier should be.     

Mortality rate and confidence interval estimation in humanitarian emergencies

Surveys are conducted frequently in humanitarian emergencies to assess the health status of the population. Most often, they employ complex sample designs, such as cluster sampling. Mortality is an indicator commonly estimated in such surveys. Confidence limits provide information on the precision of the estimate and it is important to ensure that confidence limits for a mortality rate account for the survey design and utilise an acceptable methodology. This paper describes the calculation of confidence limits for mortality rates from surveys using complex sampling designs and a variety of software programmes and methods. It contains an example that makes use of the SAS, SPSS, and Epi Info software programmes. Of the three confidence interval methods examined—the ratio command approach, the modified rate approach, and the modified proportion approach—the paper recommends the ratio command approach to estimate mortality rates with confidence limits.     

Removal of Volatile Organic Compounds from polluted air

Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) are among the most common air pollutants emitted from chemical, petrochemical, and allied industries. VOCs are one of the main sources of photochemical reaction in the atmosphere leading to various environmental hazards; on the other hand, these VOCs have good commercial value. Growing environmental awareness has put up stringent regulations to control the VOCs emissions. In such circumstances, it becomes mandatory for each VOCs emitting industry or facility to opt for proper VOCs control measures. There are many techniques available to control VOCs emission (destruction based and recovery based) with many advantages and limitations. Therefore, deciding on a particular technique becomes a difficult task. This article illustrates various available options for VOCs control. It further details the merits, demerits and applicability of each option. The authors hope that this article will help in critically analysing the requirements and accordingly decide on the appropriate strategy to control VOCs.