The 1970 Bhola cyclone,nationalist politics,and the subsistence crisis contract in Bangladesh

The devastating Bhola cyclone in November 1970 is credited with having triggered the political events that led to the division of Pakistan and the creation of Bangladesh in 1971. A callous response to the disaster by the Pakistani regime resulted in a landslide electoral victory for Bengali nationalists, followed by a bitter and bloody civil war. Yet, despite its political momentousness, the Bhola cyclone has been the subject of little political analysis. This paper examines the events, arguing that its extraordinary political significance put disaster management on the nationalist agenda; the famine of 1974 confirmed its centrality, producing a social contract to protect the population against disasters and subsistence crises on which the country's acclaimed resilience to the effects of climate change rests. The Bhola cyclone also drew international attention to this neglected, little‐known region, and in general can be seen as foundational for the subsequent developmental achievements of Bangladesh.     

Arsenic concentrations in rice, vegetables, and fish in Bangladesh: a preliminary study

Arsenic contaminating groundwater in Bangladesh is one of the largest environmental health hazards in the world. Because of the potential risk to human health through consumption of agricultural produce grown in fields irrigated with arsenic contaminated water, we have determined the level of contamination in 100 samples of crop, vegetables and fresh water fish collected from three different regions in Bangladesh. Arsenic concentrations were determined by hydride generation atomic absorption spectrophotometry. All 11 samples of water and 18 samples of soil exceeded the expected limits of arsenic. No samples of rice grain (Oryza sativa L.) had arsenic concentrations more than the recommended limit of 1.0 mg/kg. However, rice plants, especially the roots had a significantly higher concentration of arsenic (2.4 mg/kg) compared to stem (0.73 mg/kg) and rice grains (0.14 mg/kg). Arsenic contents of vegetables varied; those exceeding the food safety limits included Kachu sak (Colocasia antiquorum) (0.09-3.99 mg/kg, n=9), potatoes (Solanum tuberisum) (0.07-1.36 mg/kg, n=5), and Kalmi sak (Ipomoea reptoms) (0.1-1.53 mg/kg, n=6). Lata fish (Ophicephalus punctatus) did not contain unacceptable levels of arsenic. These results indicate that arsenic contaminates some food items in Bangladesh. Further studies with larger samples are needed to demonstrate the extent of arsenic contamination of food in Bangladesh.     

Impact of industrial effluent on growth and yield of rice (Oryza sativa L.) in silty clay loam soil

Degradation of soil and water from discharge of untreated industrial effluent is alarming in Bangladesh. Therefore, buildup of heavy metals in soil from contaminated effluent, their entry into the food chain and effects on rice yield were quantified in a pot experiment. The treatments were comprised of 0, 25%, 50%, 75% and 100% industrial effluents applied as irrigation water. Effluents, initial soil, different parts of rice plants and post-harvest pot soil were analyzed for various elements, including heavy metals. Application of elevated levels of effluent contributed to increased heavy metals in pot soils and rice roots due to translocation effects, which were transferred to rice straw and grain. The results indicated that heavy metal toxicity may develop in soil because of contaminated effluent application. Heavy metals are not biodegradable, rather they accumulate in soils, and transfer of these metals from effluent to soil and plant cells was found to reduce the growth and development of rice plants and thereby contributed to lower yield. Moreover, a higher concentration of effluent caused heavy metal toxicity as well as reduction of growth and yield of rice, and in the long run a more aggravated situation may threaten human lives, which emphasizes the obligatory adoption of effluent treatment before its release to the environment, and regular monitoring by government agencies needs to be ensured.     

Urban earthquake hazard: perceived seismic risk and preparedness in Dhaka City,Bangladesh

Bangladesh is vulnerable to seismic events. Experts suspect that if an earthquake with a 7.0 magnitude occurred in large cities of Bangladesh, there would be a major human tragedy due to the structural failure of many buildings. The primary objectives of this paper are to examine seismic risk perception among residents of Dhaka City and investigate their levels of earthquake preparedness. A questionnaire survey conducted among 444 residents of the city provided the major source of data for the paper. The survey results suggest that an overwhelming majority of the respondents were not prepared for a major earthquake, which is anticipated to occur in Dhaka. Multivariate analysis of survey data reveals that value of residential unit and respondent educational levels appear as the most significant determinants of preparedness status of the respondents. This study recommends increasing earthquake awareness and preparedness among residents of Dhaka City.     

Modelling of BP Texas City refinery accident using dynamic risk assessment approach

Process industries involve handling of hazardous substances which on release may potentially cause catastrophic consequences in terms of assets lost, human fatalities or injuries and loss of public confidence of the company. In spite of using endless end-of-the-pipe safety systems, tragic accidents such as BP Texas City refinery still occur. One of the main reasons of such rare but catastrophic events is lack of effective monitoring and modelling approaches that provide early warnings and help to prevent such event. To develop a predictive model one has to rely on past occurrence data, as such events are rare, enough data are usually not available to better understand and model such behavior. In such situations, it is advisable to use near misses and incident data to predict system performance and estimate accident likelihood. This paper is an attempt to demonstrate testing and validation of one such approach, dynamic risk assessment, using data from the BP Texas City refinery incident.Dynamic risk assessment is a novel approach which integrates Bayesian failure updating mechanism with the consequence assessment. The implementation of this methodology to the BP Texas City incident proves that the approach has the ability to learn from near misses, incident, past accidents and predict event occurrence likelihood in the next time interval.     

Adaptation to climate change as resilience for urban extreme poor: lessons learned from targeted asset transfers programmes in Dhaka city of Bangladesh

This paper aims to identify how targeted asset transfers help to build adaptive capacity and adaptive actions of the urban extreme poor to climate change phenomena. This paper explores the theoretical debates of community-based adaptation approach and failure of such approach to address urban extreme poor. The empirical evidence of these theoretical debates will be drawn from two informal settlements of Dhaka city, where a targeted asset transfer project has been implementing since 2009. This paper explains that urban extreme poor usually work as unskilled labour and lack different livelihood capitals; and climate change is an increasingly important influence exacerbating an already vulnerable livelihood context. There is growing recognition in the literature that poor urban people and communities are adapting to climate change in physical and behavioural terms. But, in the case of urban extreme poor these adaptation approaches are delivering short-term survival strategies disregarding the notion of wellbeing in the medium to long-term perspectives. It is also evident that community level initiatives structurally reproduce the exclusion of the urban extreme poor. However, poverty literatures acknowledge that poverty-centred approaches could help to reduce vulnerability. As urban extreme poor are significantly more resource constrained, it is reasonable to assert that targeted asset transfers could be a poverty-centred adaptation approach in a changing climate. Targeted asset transfers approaches are the outcomes of recent social protection revolution that especially consider accumulation of physical, financial, human, and social capital in order to build adaptive capacity of the urban extreme poor. This adaptive capacity of the extreme poor may facilitate adjustments in assets, livelihoods, behaviours, and technologies in order to reduce future climate vulnerability. In this context, this paper seeks to answer whether targeted asset transfer approaches can be considered as effective poverty-centred adaptation approaches for the urban extreme poor or not.     

Sustainable pesticide governance in Bangladesh: socio-economic and legal status interlinking environment,occupational health and food safety

Pesticides, regardless of their known toxic impacts to human health and environment, are widely used in the rapid growing agricultural sectors of developing countries. As an agricultural country with small lands and enormous population to feed, a developing country like Bangladesh rely heavily on the uses of pesticides to increase crop yields. Nevertheless, during the past decades, Peoples’ Republic of Bangladesh has experienced 26.46% decrease in total pesticide consumption. However, the presence of unregistered pesticides in the environmental samples and agricultural products has pointed out the weakness in the existing legal regime of the pesticide governance. This, in turn, is threatening the livelihood and health of the farmers, food safety and consumer health. This paper reviews the antiquity of the status of pesticide consumption, evolution and drawbacks of pesticide in the context of existing socio-economic position of Bangladesh. A consolidated uniform system is lacking to project pesticide management in the country. Existing legal policy, rules and regulations in the context of international agreements regarding pesticide management have been reviewed and suggested for further amendment. Moreover, role of green microfinance in sustainable management of pesticides and food safety were recommended. A framework is proposed for pesticide governance with a stronger pesticide surveillance program and coordination of ministries interlinking environmental, occupational health and food safety.     

The effect of atmospheric thermal conditions and urban thermal pollution on all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in Bangladesh

This study assessed the effect of temperature and thermal atmospheric conditions on all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in Bangladesh. In particular, differences in the response to elevated temperatures between urban and rural areas were investigated. Generalized additive models (GAMs) for daily death counts, adjusted for trend, season, day of the month and age were separately fitted for urban and rural areas. Breakpoint models were applied for determining the increase in mortality above and below a threshold (equivalent) temperature. Generally, a 'V'-shaped (equivalent) temperature-mortality curve with increasing mortality at low and high temperatures was observed. Particularly, urban areas suffered from heat-related mortality with a steep increase above a specific threshold. This adverse heat effect may well increase with ongoing urbanization and the intensification of the urban heat island due to the densification of building structures. Moreover, rising temperatures due to climate change could aggravate thermal stress.     

Assessing the genotoxic potentials of arsenic in tilapia (Oreochromis mossambicus) using alkaline comet assay and micronucleus test

This experiment was conducted to study the genotoxic potentials of sodium arsenite (NaAsO₂) in freshwater fish Oreochromis mossambicus by using alkaline comet assay and micronucleus (MN) test. Fish were exposed to three different concentrations (3 ppm, 28 ppm and 56 ppm) of arsenic and gill, liver and blood tissue samples were collected after 48 h, 96 h and 192 h of exposure. Arsenic exposure induced DNA damage in all tissues examined in a concentration dependent manner. A significant (p < 0.05) increase in the comet tail DNA (%) of the exposed fish liver, gill, and blood was observed after 48 h and 96 h of exposure, but a decline in DNA damage was recorded in all the tissues at all the three concentrations studied after 192 h of exposure. Liver tissue exhibited significantly (p < 0.05) higher DNA damage at all the concentrations examined, followed by gill and blood. Higher liver tail DNA (51.38 ± 0.21%) refers that it is more prone to injury to arsenic toxicity than the gill and blood. In blood samples arsenic induced micronucleus formation in a concentration dependent manner and highest (5.8 ± 0.46%) value was recorded in 56 ppm after 96 h of exposure, whereas, it was decreased after 192 h of exposure at all the three concentrations of NaAsO₂ examined which refers to the DNA repairing ability of fish to arsenic toxicity. The results of this study depict the genotoxic potentials of arsenic to fish which in turns provide insight on advanced study in aquatic toxicology.     

Methodology for computer aided fuzzy fault tree analysis

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is a comprehensive, structured and logical analysis method aimed at identifying and assessing risks of complex process systems. PRA uses fault tree analysis (FTA) as a tool to identify basic causes leading to an undesired event, to represent logical dependency of these basic causes in leading to the event, and finally to calculate the probability of occurrence of this event.To conduct a quantitative fault tree analysis, one needs a fault tree along with failure data of the basic events (components). Sometimes it is difficult to have an exact estimation of the failure rate of individual components or the probability of occurrence of undesired events due to a lack of sufficient data. Further, due to imprecision in basic failure data, the overall result may be questionable. To avoid such conditions, a fuzzy approach may be used with the FTA technique. This reduces the ambiguity and imprecision arising out of subjectivity of the data.This paper presents a methodology for a fuzzy based computer-aided fault tree analysis tool. The methodology is developed using a systematic approach of fault tree development, minimal cut sets determination and probability analysis. Further, it uses static and dynamic structuring and modeling, fuzzy based probability analysis and sensitivity analysis.This paper also illustrates with a case study the use of a fuzzy weighted index and cutsets importance measure in sensitivity analysis (for system probabilistic risk analysis) and design modification.