多级模糊决策在地震预报中的应用

本文把多级模糊决策方法应用于地震预报当中。文中详细论证和推导了多级模糊决策方法与模型。该方法使决策部门可以根据输入前兆的变化随时作出合理的对策。文中还给出了地震预报多级模糊决策数字解实例,并用回顾法讨论了1976年松潘7.2级地震的模糊预报决策。     

贮罐类重大危险源三维风险分级模型研究

为了实现重大危险源分级监管,基于风险管理理论,建立贮罐类重大危险源定性三维分级模型和风险定量分级模型。提出风险评价敏感性因素,选取可能性影响因素、严重性影响因素、敏感性影响因素3类风险评价指标。使用层次分析法(AHP)计算贮罐风险分级指标权重。根据风险可接受准则,将贮罐类重大危险源风险等级划分为4级,实现基于三维风险模型的贮罐类重大危险源快速分级。结果表明:用贮罐类重大危险源三维风险分级模型,通过简单数学模型计算贮罐风险值,能为企业提供风险分级标准,有助于实现政府对贮罐类重大危险源分级监管。     

基于神经网络分类器的城市污水处理厂水力冲击预警系统

提出了一套基于神经网络分类器的城市污水处理厂水力负荷冲击预警系统,以期对进水水量骤增现象进行提前1天的预报,使污水处理厂可根据预报结果提前采取水力冲击防护措施,从而保证各单元的平稳运行.根据进水水量的涨幅将某污水处理厂12年日进水水量监测数据分为"常规"和"冲击"两类,重点对"冲击"数据进行提前1天的预测,并采用冲击漏报率、冲击误报率和报准率对模型的预测精度进行评价;同时,基于同样的建模方法和不同的训练、验证样本建立了N(1)、N(2)和N(3)3个平行模型,以对模型的鲁棒性和建模方法的可重复性进行考察.结果显示,3个模型对2010年、2011年和2012年3年测试样本的预测效果良好,冲击漏报率和报准率两项指标数值均较为稳定,分别在0~0.167和0.981~0.995之间浮动,冲击误报率虽然在数值上的浮动较大,最低为0.143,最高为0.500,平均为0.310,但仍在工程上的可承受范围内.该结果表明,本研究基于神经网络分类器所建立的3个神经网络模型预测精度高、鲁棒性好,显示出良好的性能,有望为污水处理厂水力冲击防护工作提供有力参考.     

江苏洋口港地区地下水的环境同位素组成及其形成演化研究

江苏洋口港地区是江苏沿海开发重点建设的深水港区,水质优良的地下水是港区经济社会发展的重要基础.本研究利用近期获得的钻孔剖面地层对比数据资料,沿水文径流剖面分层采集水样,通过识别地表水、各含水层地下水的环境同位素(δD、δ~(18)O、~3H、~(14)C)组成指纹特征,以揭示研究区地下水的形成演化规律.结果表明,研究区浅层地下水主要来源于现代大气降水的入渗补给,大气降水在补给地下水过程中经历了明显的蒸发过程;研究区深层地下水的放射性~(14)C年龄主要为15000~26000 a,其稳定同位素δ~(18)O、δD值比现代降水低,是晚更新世末次冰期(大理冰期)的盛冰期降水入渗补给.地下水含水层的氘、氧、碳同位素分布具有明显的呈层性,随着地下水埋藏深度增加,地下水中的δD、δ~(18)O值呈下降趋势.浅层地下水与地表水水力联系紧密,可更新能力较强;深层地下水径流缓慢,总体上处于封闭-半封闭状态,可更新能力弱.江苏沿海平原天然地下水流动是自晚更新世末期以来,伴随着冰退、海平面上升而调整到目前的模式.末次盛冰期以来的自然地理及地质发展史,决定着研究区第四系地下水流系统的演变格局,现代人类活动加强了浅层与深层地下水之间的水力联系.研究在高强度开发地下水条件下的区域水文循环特征,可为沿海地区地下水演变机理和调控研究提供技术支持.     

Assessment of potential dermal and inhalation exposure of workers to the insecticide imidacloprid using whole-body dosimetry in China

In China, although improvements to the pesticide registration process have beenmade in last thirty years, no occupational exposure data are required to obtain a commercial license for a pesticide product. Consequently, notably little research has been conducted to establish an exposure assessment procedure in China. The present study monitored the potential dermal operator exposure from knapsack electric sprayer wheat field application of imidacloprid in Liaocheng City, Shandong Province and in Xinxiang City, Henan Province, China, using whole-body dosimetry. The potential inhalation exposure was determined using a personal air pump and XAD-2 sample tubes. The analytical method was developed and validated, including such performance parameters as limits of detection and quantification, linear range, recovery and precision. The total potential dermal and inhalation exposures were 14.20, 16.80, 15.39 and 20.78 mL/hr, respectively, for the four operators in Liaocheng and Xinxiang, corresponding to 0.02% to 0.03% of the applied volume of spray solution. In all trials, the lower part (thigh, lower leg) of the body was the most contaminated, accounting for approximately 76% to 88% of the total exposure. The inhalation exposure was less than 1% of the total exposure. Such factors as the application pattern, crop type, spray equipment, operator experience and climatic conditions have been used to explain the exposure distribution over the different parts of the body. As indicated by the calculated Margin of Exposure, the typical wheat treatment scenarios when a backpack sprayer was used are considered to be safe in terms of imidacloprid exposure.     

Enhanced U(VI) bioreduction by alginate-immobilized uranium-reducing bacteria in the presence of carbon nanotubes and anthraquinone-2,6-disulfonate

Uranium-reducing bacteria were immobilized with sodium alginate, anthraquinone-2, 6-disulfonate (AQDS), and carbon nanotubes (CNTs). The effects of different AQDS-CNTs contents, U(IV) concentrations, and metal ions on U(IV) reduction by immobilized beads were examined. Over 97.5% U(VI) (20 mg/L) was removed in 8 hr when the beads were added to 0.7% AQDS-CNTs, which was higher than that without AQDS-CNTs. This result may be attributed to the enhanced electron transfer by AQDS and CNTs. The reduction of U(VI) occurred at initial U(VI) concentrations of 10 to 100 mg/L and increased with increasing AQDS-CNT content from 0.1% to 1%. The presence of Fe(III), Cu(II) and Mn(II) slightly increased U(VI) reduction, whereas Cr(VI), Ni(II), Pb(II), and Zn(II) significantly inhibited U(VI) reduction. After eight successive incubation-washing cycles or 8 hr of retention time (HRT) for 48 hr of continuous operation, the removal efficiency of uranium was above 90% and 92%, respectively. The results indicate that the AQDS-CNT/AL/cell beads are suitable for the treatment of uranium-containing wastewaters.     

Heterogeneous oxidation of SO2 by O3-aged black carbon and its dithiothreitol oxidative potential

Ozone (O₃) is an important atmospheric oxidant. Black carbon (BC) particles released into the atmosphere undergo an aging process via O₃ oxidation. O₃-aged BC particles may change their uptake ability toward trace reducing gases such as SO₂ in the atmosphere, leading to different environmental and health effects. In this paper, the heterogeneous reaction process between O₃-aged BC and SO₂ was explored via in-situ diffuse reflectance infrared Fourier transform spectroscopy (DRIFTS). Combined with ion chromatography (IC), DRIFTS was used to qualitatively and quantitatively analyze the sulfate product. The results showed that O₃-aged BC had stronger SO₂ oxidation ability than fresh BC, and the reactive species/sites generated on the surface had an important role in the oxidation of SO₂. Relative humidity or 254 nm UV (ultraviolet) light illumination enhanced the oxidation uptake of SO₂ on O₃-aged BC. The oxidation potentials of the BC particles were detected via dithiothreitol (DTT) assay. The DTT activity over BC was decreased in the process of SO₂ reduction, with the consumption of oxidative active sites.     

固相微萃取-气质联用法测定水中痕量土臭素和二甲基异崁醇

采用固相微萃-气相色谱/质谱法(SPME-GC/MS)对GSM和2-MIB进行富集检测。实验对萃取富集和仪器条件进行了优化,得出最佳实验条件：NaCl投加量30%,萃取温度65℃,萃取时间40 min,解吸3 min,不分流进样,SIM模式采集数据。实验还对萃取头的使用次数和维护进行了探讨。利用已经建立的SPME-GC/MS法对佛山市28家水厂的出厂水和原水、佛山典型景观千灯湖和亚艺公园湖水进行普查。该法具有操作简单快速、能实现自动化连续检测、准确、灵敏度高等特点,适用于饮用水中嗅味物质定性和定量。