PARAMETRIC/NONPARAMETRIC MIXTURE DENSITY ESTIMATION WITH APPLICATION TO FLOOD-FREQUENCY ANALYSIS1

Much attention has been invested in the model choice problem for peak annual flows, in the context of flood frequency analysis. The authors would sidestep this dilemma through non-parametric density estimation methodology, but recognize that the standard nonparametric estimators preclude the use of prior information and related data, and furthermore have virtually no tail at all. Here we offer a remedy for these inadequacies by introducing an estimator which mixes parametric and nonparametric density estimates. We prove that our mixture rule is consistent. By this procedure, we do allow incorporation of prior information, experience, and regional data information, but nevertheless provide a safeguard against incorrect model choice.     

The quality of Albanian natural waters and the human impact

Albania possesses a wealth of aquatic ecosystems, many of enormous natural and biological value, such as the Lakes Ohrid, Prespa and Shkodra, glacial lakes, river valleys, and coastal lagoons. Although many habitats are highly polluted by inorganic and organic wastes, detailed knowledge on the water quality is still lacking. For the first time, an environmental assessment of the water quality is presented and the main polluting sources identified. As a consequence, a systematic control and the establishment of routine monitoring of surface and groundwater is proposed, which elucidates the present environmental state and helps to develop new strategies of waste and wastewater management. It would help allow Albania to reach an international standard in environmental protection, as a part of UNECE Convention, the Mediterranean Action Plan, the MAP/UNEP Medpol Program and the Basel Convention.     

Standardising and mapping open-source information for crisis regions: the case of post-conflict Iraq

Painting an accurate picture of the situation on the ground in countries in crisis is vital for the efficiency of humanitarian aid and reconstruction agencies. This study describes a method for standardising and mapping the plethora of open-source information. The test site for the study is post-conflict Iraq. Important information on aid distribution, reconstruction and security in Iraq can be derived from the reports of humanitarian aid agencies and the media, before being formatted, inserted into a database and mapped. The product is a visual, cartographic structure of otherwise random information, showing which organisations are working in the country, which thematic and geographic areas are being prioritized in the field, and which areas most frequently experience security events. This type of mapping not only highlights the overall working environment within different parts of the country, but it may also serve as a decision-making tool for donors and humanitarian aid agencies planning to deploy personnel.     

Leaf morphology and ozone sensitivity of two open pollinated genotypes of black cherry (Prunus serotina) seedlings

Two black cherry families differing in sensitivity to ozone (O(3)) were used to test the hypothesis that leaf morphology is related to foliar sensitivity to O(3). Two uninjured sections of leaf tissue were sampled from a single leaf collected from each of 12 open-grown O(3)-tolerant and 12 O(3)-sensitive seedlings. Standard histological techniques and light microscopy were used to examine 11 morphological characteristics. The O(3)-sensitive genotype had significantly greater stomatal density, thinner palisade mesophyll layer and thicker spongy mesophyll layer, lower ratio of palisade to spongy mesophyll, greater leaf weight and leaf area. In addition, total leaf thickness, guard cell length, and specific leaf mass were also slightly greater for the O(3)-sensitive genotype.