The impacts of knowledge of the past on preferences for future landscape change

In this paper, we investigate whether people's knowledge of the past influences their preferences and values towards future landscape change. "Knowledge of the past" is one aspect of the information set held by individuals, and a well-established finding in economics is that changes in information can change preferences and values. The particular aspects of knowledge of the past we work with here are: (i) awareness of past landuse, as represented by woodland cover and (ii) awareness of differing and sometimes contradictory literary impressions of this past landscape. The case studies used here relate to prospective changes in woodland cover in two UK national parks, the Lake District and the Trossachs. We find that people who are made aware that the landscape has changed over time, or that perceptions of the landscape have changed over time, are more likely to favour changes to the current landscape (are less likely to favour the status quo). Knowledge of the past therefore seems to have an impact on preferences for future landscapes. We also investigate the impacts on preferences of how "special", how "wild" and how "worked in" people perceive the landscapes of these two national parks to be.     

A bayesian network for comparing dissolved nitrogen exports from high rainfall cropping in southeastern Australia

Best management practices are often used to mitigate nutrient exports from agricultural systems. The effectiveness of these measures can vary depending on the natural attributes of the land in question (e.g., soil type, slope, and drainage class). In this paper we use a Bayesian Network to combine experiential data (expert opinion) and experimental data to compare farm-scale management for different high-rainfall cropping farms in the Hamilton region of southern Australia. In the absence of appropriate data for calibration, the network was tested against various scenarios in a predictive and in a diagnostic way. In general, the network suggests that transport factors related to total surface water (i.e., surface and near surface interflow) runoff, which are largely unrelated to Site Variables, have the biggest effect on N exports. Source factors, especially those related to fertilizer applications at planting, also appear to be important. However, the effects of fertilizer depend on when runoff occurs, and, of the major factors under management control, only the Fertilizer Rate at Sowing had a notable effect. When used in a predictive capacity, the network suggests that, compared with other scenarios, high N loads are likely when fertilizer applications at sowing and runoff coincide. In this paper we have used a Bayesian Network to describe many of the dependencies between some of the major factors affecting N exports from high rainfall cropping. This relatively simple approach has been shown to be a useful tool for comparing management practices in data-poor environments.     

Continuous high-frequency monitoring of estuarine water quality as a decision support tool: a Dublin Port case study

High-frequency, continuous monitoring using in situ sensors offers a comprehensive and improved insight into the temporal and spatial variability of any water body. In this paper, we describe a 7-month exploratory monitoring programme in Dublin Port, demonstrating the value of high-frequency data in enhancing knowledge of processes, informing discrete sampling, and ultimately increasing the efficiency of port and environmental management. Kruskal–Wallis and Mann–Whitney tests were used to show that shipping operating in Dublin Port has a small–medium effect on turbidity readings collected by in situ sensors. Turbidity events are largely related to vessel activity in Dublin Port, caused by re-suspension of sediments by vessel propulsion systems. The magnitudes of such events are strongly related to water level and tidal state at vessel arrival times. Crucially, measurements of Escherichia coli and enterococci contamination from discrete samples taken at key periods related to detected turbidity events were up to nine times higher after vessel arrival than prior to disturbance. Daily in situ turbidity patterns revealed time-dependent water quality “hot spots” during a 24-h period. We demonstrate conclusively that if representative environmental assessment of water quality is to be performed at such sites, sampling times, informed by continous monitoring data, should take into account these daily variations. This work outlines the potential of sensor technologies and continuous monitoring, to act as a decision support tool in both environmental and port management.     

Climate change impacts on rainfed cropping production systems in the tropics and the case of smallholder farms in North-west Cambodia

The consequences of climate change on smallholder farms are locally specific and difficult to quantify because of variations in farming systems, complexity of agricultural and non-agricultural livelihood activities and climate-related vulnerability. One way to better understand the issues is to learn from the experiences of farmers themselves. Thus, this study aimed to better understand rainfed upland cropping systems in NW Cambodia and to identify practical, social and economic constraints to adoption of known climate adaptation options applicable to local agro-ecosystems. The study also sought to document the climate change perceptions and adaptation options employed by farmers to mitigate the climate risks. A household survey was conducted in the districts of Sala Krau and Samlout in North-west Cambodia in 2013 where 390 representatives of households were randomly selected for interviews, group discussions and field observations. The majority of respondents perceived that changes had occurred in the rainfall pattern such as a later start to the monsoon season, decreasing annual rainfall, increasing frequencies of drought and dry spells, and warmer temperatures. Farmers reported reductions in crop yields of 16–27 % over the five-year period of 2008–2012. However, these reductions were not evident in provincial data for the same period. Farmers claimed climate impacts resulted in significant yield reductions, but they appear not to have an effective strategy to adapt to the changes in climate. Further regional research is required to refine climate change adaptation strategies for rainfed upland cropping systems in Cambodia.     

Detecting and Coping with Disruptive Shocks in Arctic Marine Systems: A Resilience Approach to Place and People

It seems inevitable that the ongoing and rapid changes in the physical environment of the marine Arctic will push components of the region’s existing social-ecological systems—small and large—beyond tipping points and into new regimes. Ongoing changes include warming, freshening, acidification, and alterations to food web structure. In anticipation we pose three distinct but interrelated challenges: (1) to explore existing connectivities within components of the marine system; (2) to seek indicators (if they exist) of approaching regime change through observation and modeling; and (3) to build functional resilience into existing systems through adaptation-oriented policy and to have in hand transformative options when tipping points are crossed and new development trajectories are required. Each of the above challenges is scale dependent, and each requires a much deeper understanding than we currently have of connectivity within existing systems and their response to external forcing. Here, we argue from a global perspective the need to understand the Arctic’s role in an increasingly nonlinear world; then describe emerging evidence from new observations on the connectivity of processes and system components from the Canada Basin and subarctic seas surrounding northern North America; and finally posit an approach founded in “resilience thinking” to allow northern residents living in small coastal communities to participate in the observation, adaption and—if necessary—transformation of the social-ecological system with which they live.     

Partitioning of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) between human serum and breast milk: A literature review

The literature was reviewed to assess the relationship between the lipid adjusted concentration in human serum and breast milk (expressed as the serum/milk ratio) of a broad range of POPs in paired samples. Thirteen studies were identified, including seven studies that reported serum/milk ratios for polychlorinated dibenzo-dioxins and -furans (PCDD/Fs), ten for polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), five for polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), and five for organochlorine pesticides (OCPs). Mean serum/milk ratios ranged between 0.7 and 25 depending on the compound and congener. For PCDD/Fs, PCBs and PBDEs, a clear trend of increasing mean serum/milk ratio by increasing molar volume, hydrophobicity and number of halogen substitutes was observed. The mean serum/milk ratios reported by the 13 studies summarized here will aid comparison between human POPs exposure studies using either serum or milk samples. More studies are needed to allow a valid comparison between data obtained from analysis of breast milk and serum samples for a broader range of POPs. Furthermore such studies may shed light on compound specific factors as well as other determinants that may affect the partitioning and partition kinetics of POPs between serum and breast milk.     

Triclosan in individual human milk samples from Australia

Triclosan is a chlorinated phenol ether that has been in widespread use as a broad-spectrum antibacterial agent for four decades. When compared to the limited international data available on human body burden of triclosan, results from a pooled blood study suggested that triclosan concentrations in Australia were a factor two higher than observed in Sweden. This study determined triclosan levels in individual human milk samples (n = 151) collected between 2002 and 2005 from primiparous Australian mothers. It provided the first report of population triclosan levels and individual variation in Australia and gave a measure of infant exposure via breast feeding. The distribution of triclosan concentration was positively skewed, with 7.2% of the samples below the LOQ, 66% with a concentration of less than or equal to 1.0 ng g⁻¹ fresh weight and the remaining samples above 1 ng g⁻¹ reaching a maximum concentration of 19 ng g⁻¹ fresh weight. The mean and median triclosan concentrations were 1.3 ± 2.7 ng g⁻¹ f.w. and 0.26 ng g⁻¹ f.w., respectively. The results of this study showed high variability in triclosan concentrations between individuals and no correlations with maternal age (p = 0.094), maternal weight (p = 0.971) or infant age at the time of sample collection (p = 0.621). A large number of samples contained low or non-quantifiable concentrations of triclosan and so, in Australia, ubiquitous background exposure due to environmental sources is low. This means that body burden can be influenced by an individual’s use of triclosan containing product. Given that triclosan containing product use is continuing, it is important that monitoring in both humans and the environment is continued and that triclosan containing products are adequately labeled so that an individual can choose to avoid exposure.     

Building community resilience in a context of climate change: The role of social capital

Social capital is considered important for resilience across social levels, including communities, yet insights are scattered across disciplines. This meta-synthesis of 187 studies examines conceptual and empirical understandings of how social capital relates to resilience, identifying implications for community resilience and climate change practice. Different conceptualisations are highlighted, yet also limited focus on underlying dimensions of social capital and proactive types of resilience for engaging with the complex climate change challenge. Empirical insights show that structural and socio-cultural aspects of social capital, multiple other factors and formal actors are all important for shaping the role of social capital for guiding resilience outcomes. Thus, finding ways to work with these different elements is important. Greater attention on how and why outcomes emerge, interactions between factors, approaches of formal actors and different socio-cultural dimensions will advance understandings about how to nurture social capital for resilience in the context of climate change.     

Predominant anthropogenic sources and rates of atmospheric mercury accumulation in southern Ontario recorded by peat cores from three bogs: comparison with natural "background" values (past 8000 years)

Peat cores from three bogs in southern Ontario provide a complete, quantitative record of net rates of atmospheric Hg accumulation since pre-industrial times. For comparison with modern values, a peat core extending back 8000 years was used to quantify the natural variations in Hg fluxes for this region, and their dependence on climatic change and land use history. The net mercury accumulation rates were separated into "natural" and "excess" components by comparing the Hg/Br ratios of modern samples with the long-term, pre-anthropogenic average Hg/Br. The average background mercury accumulation rate during the pre-anthropogenic period (from 5700 years BC to 1470 AD) was 1.4 +/- 1.0 microg m(-2) per year (n = 197). The beginning of Hg contamination from anthropogenic sources dates from AD 1475 at the Luther Bog, corresponding to biomass burning for agricultural activities by Native North Americans. During the late 17th and 18th centuries, deposition of anthropogenic Hg was at least equal to that of Hg from natural sources. Anthropogenic inputs of Hg to the bogs have dominated continuously since the beginning of the 19th century. The maximum Hg accumulation rates decrease in the order Sifton Bog, in the City of London, Ontario (141 microg Hg m(-2) per year), Luther Bog in an agricultural region (89 microg Hg m(-2) per year), and Spruce Bog which is in a comparatively remote, forested region (54 microg Hg m(-2) per year). Accurate age dating of recent peat samples using the bomb pulse curve of 14C shows that the maximum rate of atmospheric Hg accumulation occurred during AD 1956 and 1959 at all sites. In these (modern) samples, the Hg concentration profiles resemble those of Pb, an element which is known to be immobile in peat bogs. The correlation between these two metals, together with sulfur, suggests that the predominant anthropogenic source of Hg (and Pb) was coal burning. While Hg accumulation rates have gone into strong decline since the late 1950's, Hg deposition rates today still exceed the average natural background values by 7 to 13 times.     

The use of ICP-MS for the analysis of natural waters and an evaluation of sampling techniques

Analytical and sampling methods for a reconnaissance survey of river waters in former metal mining areas of Wales, UK, are considered. A semi-quantitative mode of analysis with a single internal standard, possible by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) is compared with more conventional quantitative ICP-MS methods using external calibration from aqueous standards. Semi-quantitative analysis can be much quicker than a more rigorous quantitative approach and gives values which agree with fully quantitative data to within 30%, indeed, agreement is often much better than this. A comparison of samples filtered and acidified in the field with untreated samples is also presented. This shows that in most cases it is unnecessary to filter and acidify samples if the storage time before analysis is short (in this case typically less than four days).