Investigating the Uncertainties in the Simple Mass Balance Equation for Acidity Critical Loads for Terrestrial Ecosystems in the United Kingdom

The Simple Mass Balance (SMB)equation has been developed and used as one ofthe principal methods for calculating criticalloads of acidity for forest ecosystems. Criticalloads have formed the basis for informing policyrelated to the control and abatement of emissionsof acidifying pollutants. The SMB equationrelies on a variety of assumptions and dataderived from a variety of sources. Each of thesecomponent constituents has a potential source oferror depending on the method(s) used for theirderivation and the value(s) assigned. The resultis the possibility of generating a range ofcritical load values for a single ecosystem. This paper summarises the SMB equation, examinesthe uncertainties in deriving input values andreviews other works on the key assumptions.     

The consequences of poaching and anthropogenic change for forest elephants

Poaching has devastated forest elephant populations (Loxodonta cyclotis), and their habitat is dramatically changing. The long‐term effects of poaching and other anthropogenic threats have been well studied in savannah elephants (Loxodonta africana), but the impacts of these changes for Central Africa's forest elephants have not been discussed. We examined potential repercussions of these threats and the related consequences for forest elephants in Central Africa by summarizing the lessons learned from savannah elephants and small forest elephant populations in West Africa. Forest elephant social organization is less known than the social organization of savannah elephants, but the close evolutionary history of these species suggests that they will respond to anthropogenic threats in broadly similar ways. The loss of older, experienced individuals in an elephant population disrupts ecological, social, and population parameters. Severe reduction of elephant abundance within Central Africa's forests can alter plant communities and ecosystem functions. Poaching, habitat alterations, and human population increase are probably compressing forest elephants into protected areas and increasing human–elephant conflict, which negatively affects their conservation. We encourage conservationists to look beyond documenting forest elephant population decline and address the causes of these declines when developing conversation strategies. We suggest assessing the effectiveness of the existing protected‐area networks for landscape connectivity in light of current industrial and infrastructure development. Longitudinal assessments of the effects of landscape changes on forest elephant sociality and behavior are also needed. Finally, lessons learned from West African elephant population loss and habitat fragmentation should be used to inform strategies for land‐use planning and managing human–elephant interactions.     

Heritable and experiential effects on boldness in a tropical poeciliid

Consistent differences in human behaviour are often explained with reference to personality traits. Recent evidence suggests that similar traits are widespread across the entire animal kingdom and that they may have substantial fitness consequences. One of the major components of personality is the shyness–boldness continuum. Little is known about the relative contributions of genes and the environment in the development of boldness in wild animal populations. Here, we bred wild-caught fish (Brachyraphis episcopi) collected from regions of high- and low-predation pressure, reared their offspring in the laboratory under varying conditions and tested boldness utilising an open-field paradigm. First-generation laboratory-reared fish showed similar behaviour to their wild parents suggesting that boldness has a heritable component. In addition, repeated chasing with a net increased boldness in both high- and low-predation offspring, showing that boldness is also heavily influenced by life experiences. Differences between males and females were also sustained in the laboratory-reared generation indicating that sex differences in boldness are also heritable. We discuss these results with reference to the potential underlying genetic and hormonal mechanisms as well as the environmental influences that may be responsible for expression of boldness in wild animals.     

Using experimental and forest soils to investigate the uptake of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) along an urban-rural gradient

Spatial and temporal variation in the atmospheric deposition of PAHs to soil was examined by deploying experimental soils for approximately 165 days and conducting a survey of forest soils at several sites along an urban-rural transect extending from downtown Toronto to approximately 80 km north of the city. PAH concentrations decreased with distance from the urban centre-by a factor of 2 and 60 for the experimental and forest soils respectively. The large gradient for the forest soils is generally consistent with air concentrations of PAHs measured using high volume and passive air samplers. The smaller gradient for the experimental soils was due to kinetic limitations of PAH accumulation and the relatively short deployment period of approximately 165 days. Mean effective deposition velocities (gas+particle) for the full range of PAHs for the experimental soils at the urban, suburban, and the rural sites were 2, 31 and 26 cm s(-1), respectively. These were incorporated into a dynamic model that was used to assess the long-term uptake of PAHs in forest soils. Model results indicate that lower molecular weight PAHs may achieve equilibrium and become involved in soil-air exchange whereas higher molecular weight PAHs are accumulated for much longer time periods.     

The use of kriging to estimate monthly ozone exposure parameters for the Southeastern United States

This paper explores the feasibility of (1) using kriging to predict the monthly mean of daily 7-h mean (0900-1559) O3 concentrations, (2) using kriging to estimate the per cent of hourly mean O3 concentrations equal to or greater than 0.07 ppm (137 microg m(-3)) for a specific month, and (3) developing a quantitative relationship between the monthly mean of the daily 7-h (0900-1559) average O3 concentration and the monthly number of hourly concentrations > or = 0.08p ppm (157 microg m(-3)). We found that kriging can be used to estimate the (1) monthly mean of daily 7-h mean O3 concentrations and (2) the percentage of hourly concentrations for a given month > or = 0.07 ppm when sufficient spatial coverage was available. However, the per cent > or = 0.07 ppm parameter exhibited much greater relative variability than the monthly 7-h exposure index. A strong statistical association was found between the monthly number of occurrences > or = 0.08 ppm and monthly 7-h mean concentrations above 0.05 ppm (98 microg m(-3)). Because of the variability that cumulative indices, such as the monthly percentage of hourly concentrations > or = 0.07 ppm , exhibit from site to site, it appears that whether kriging techniques or mathematical regressions are used to estimate the number of elevated O3 hourly concentrations above selected thresholds, large uncertainties associated with the predicted values will exist. These large uncertainties will make it difficult to accurately estimate vegetation effects caused by ambient levels of O3. However, if a generalized quantitative relationship between repeated occurrences of hourly mean concentrations > or = 0.07 ppm or > or = 0.08 and vegetation effects can be developed, it may be possible, using kriged monthly values accompanied with confidence intervals, to identify those areas where vegetation may be at risk. However, before it will be possible to implement such an approach, researchers will have to better quantify the relationship between realistic O3 exposures and vegetation effects.     

Public opinion and solid waste in Bangkok

The problems encountered when seeking suitable locations for landfill sites often include public concern over the potential visual, health and environmental impacts. There have been many attempts to predict the response of residents in an area to a proposed landfill site and suggestions of ways to adequately consult and include the local population in the decision-making process. An alternative approach is described in this article where the residents living in the vicinity of a landfill site in Bangkok were asked how much they would be willing to pay for the landfill site to be closed and the waste taken out of the city. The method used, the contingent valuation method, can provide information on how much people value environmental goods and services. The use of the technique in this instance provided an estimate of the costs of the disamenity effects of the landfill site to the local residents.     

Navigating multi‐level natural resource governance: an analytical guide

A plethora of terms are used to describe the form of governance of complex social‐ecological systems, such as multi‐level governance, polycentricity and network governance. This plethora of terms is associated with a diffuse literature from which it can be challenging to identify which variables are important for investigation of the governance system and what questions could be asked. The purpose of this article is to present the development of a guide for the analysis of the complex governance systems of renewable natural resources, informed by a breadth of literature from which key characteristics, challenges and concepts are identified. The guide consists of three dimensions: multiplicities of levels, actors and institutions; the existence, opportunities for, and challenges of, interactions within and between levels (vertical and horizontal interactions); and an assessment of governance performance through application of governance principles. The guide is applied to a case study of mangrove forests in Kenya, to illustrate its utility in generating understanding and identification of challenges and opportunities for more effective multi‐level governance. It is proposed that the guide could be beneficial to researchers and practitioners seeking to develop an understanding of structures, performance and outcomes of multi‐level governance.     

Prenatal Diagnosis of congenital disorder of glycosylation type Ia (CDG-Ia) by cordocentesis and transferrin isoelectric focussing of serum of a 27-week fetus with non-immune hydrops

Blood was obtained by cordocentesis from a fetus with non-immune hydrops demonstrated by ultrasound scanning at 27 weeks' gestation. Abnormalities of serum transferrin isoelectric focussing (IEF) were identified, characteristic of a congenital disorder of glycosylation type I (CDG-Ia). A diagnosis of CDG-Ia was confirmed by enzyme analysis of cultured amniocytes. This is the first report of CDG-Ia diagnosed by serum analysis in a fetus. Previous reports have warned that diagnostic abnormalities do not appear in serum until several weeks after birth. The sensitivity of cordocentesis transferrin IEF is unknown but is less than 100% effective because cases have been diagnosed postnatally after normal prenatal or neonatal studies. Enzyme analysis or mutation analysis is required for diagnosis of congenital disorder of glycosylation (CDGs) regardless of whether a diagnostic transferrin pattern is identified prenatally. The analysis of a small sample of serum, from cordocentesis, performed to check for fetal anemia, simplified the investigation, diagnosis, and genetic counselling of a case of non-immune hydrops detected at 27 weeks' gestation. This might be a useful test for other cases in these circumstances, as fetal blood is usually collected to check for anemia. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling the initiation and spread of Infectious Pancreatic Necrosis Virus (IPNV) in the Irish salmon farming industry: The role of inputs

Observed emergence of IPNV in farmed Irish salmon is simulated using a model originally developed to analyse the spread of the virus in Scotland [Murray, A.G., 2006a. A model of the spread of infectious pancreatic necrosis virus in Scottish salmon farms 1996–2003. Ecol. Model. 199, 64–72]. IPNV appears to have become established relatively recently in Ireland and the model is altered to explicitly simulate the origin of the spread of the virus. Input to freshwater farms was key to initiation of infection, but modelling suggests that endogenous spread was responsible for much of the subsequent increase in prevalence of IPNV. From the modelling, it is unlikely that direct imports accounted for most IPNV cases. If this is the case, cessation of imports, without a substantial improvement in biosecurity, would be likely to be of only limited effect in controlling IPNV. Marine IPNV prevalence appears to be insensitive to direct interventions in the marine environment (as in the Scottish model). A multi-element control strategy, targeting both endogenous spread and external input of infection and prioritising freshwater sites, but extending to marine sites, would probably now be required to eradicate IPNV from Ireland.     

The impacts of knowledge of the past on preferences for future landscape change

In this paper, we investigate whether people's knowledge of the past influences their preferences and values towards future landscape change. "Knowledge of the past" is one aspect of the information set held by individuals, and a well-established finding in economics is that changes in information can change preferences and values. The particular aspects of knowledge of the past we work with here are: (i) awareness of past landuse, as represented by woodland cover and (ii) awareness of differing and sometimes contradictory literary impressions of this past landscape. The case studies used here relate to prospective changes in woodland cover in two UK national parks, the Lake District and the Trossachs. We find that people who are made aware that the landscape has changed over time, or that perceptions of the landscape have changed over time, are more likely to favour changes to the current landscape (are less likely to favour the status quo). Knowledge of the past therefore seems to have an impact on preferences for future landscapes. We also investigate the impacts on preferences of how "special", how "wild" and how "worked in" people perceive the landscapes of these two national parks to be.