PREDICTING TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL FLOOD DYNAMICS USING A PRECALIBRATED MODEL1

ABSTRACT: A large storm in December 1990 allowed the evaluation of flood predictions from a hydrologic model (TOPMODEL) that had been previously calibrated on the West Fork of Walker Branch Watershed, a gauged 37.5 ha catchment near Oak Ridge, Tennessee. The model predicts both hydrograph dynamics and the spatial distribution of overland flow using an index based on topography. Maximum extent of overland flow during the storm was determined from patterns of leaf litter removal from valley bottoms. Both the flood hydrograph and the extent of overland flow were accurately predicted using model parameters obtained from a three-month period of normal flow conditions during 1983.     

Automated radioxenon monitoring for the comprehensive nuclear-test-ban treaty in two distinctive locations: Ottawa and Tahiti

In preparation for verification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban-Treaty, automated radioxenon monitoring is performed in two distinctive environments: Ottawa and Tahiti. These sites are monitored with SPALAX (Systeme de Prelevement d'air Automatique en Ligne avec l'Analyse des radioXenons) technology, which automatically extracts radioxenon from the atmosphere and measures the activity concentrations of (131m,133m,133,135)Xe. The resulting isotopic concentrations can be useful to discern nuclear explosions from nuclear industry xenon emissions. Ambient radon background, which may adversely impact analyser sensitivity, is discussed. Upper concentration limits are reported for the apparently radioxenon free Tahiti environment. Ottawa has a complex radioxenon background due to proximity to nuclear reactors and medical isotope facilities. Meteorological models suggest that, depending on the wind direction, the radioxenon detected in Ottawa can be characteristic of the normal radioxenon background in the Eastern United States, Europe, and Japan or distinctive due to medical isotope production.     

Prenatal diagnosis and characterization of an analphoid marker chromosome 16

We report on a fetus with intrauterine growth retardation and multiple malformations diagnosed on ultrasound at 32 weeks. Examination of amniotic fluid cells in culture showed a 47,XY, i(16)(q10), +mar karyotype. Chromosome analysis of both parents was normal. Using spectral karyotyping, we identified the marker chromosome as a mitotically stable acentric marker chromosome derived from chromosome 16. Further studies using subtelomeric fluorescent probes confirmed the presence of an isochromosome for the long arm of chromosome 16 and showed that the acentric marker chromosome derived from the short arm of chromosome 16 leading to a trisomy for the long arm of chromosome 16. After genetic counseling, the parents decided to terminate the pregnancy. Fetal autopsy showed a male fetus with ambiguous external genitalia, cardiac malformation, megacystis and limbs anomalies as observed in other cases of trisomy for the long arm of chromosome 16. In addition, fetal brain examination showed vermian and olfactory bulb hypoplasia. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A non-equilibrium approach to modeling metal speciation in acid,aquatic systems: theory and process equations

A general algorithm (NONEQUI) was developed to simulate reversible sorption and ion exchange kinetics among a variety of heavy metals and substrates in acid (pH < 6.5) lake or stream environments. Competitive metal-substrate and substrate-substrate interactions are modeled as kinetic processes rather than invoking an instantaneous equilibrium assumption. This distinction from other models offers certain advantages when attempting to predict the fate, speciation, transport and ultimately biological effects of toxic metals in dynamic media such as lakes and streams.     

Structure and function of a warm monomictic lake

Construction and simulation of a model of Lake Conway, Florida, U.S.A., provided a framework for defining major characteristics of this ecosystem. The relationships that are formalized in this model comprise a set of hypotheses about the nature of a warm monomictic lake. The data that were used to parameterize the model came primarily from literature estimates, although approximations of biomass levels were available from associated research conducted on the lake.Submersed macrophytes are a major biomass component in Lake Conway; simulation suggested that their role in nutrient recycling overshadows their importance in the grazing food chain. Phytoplankton biomass and degree of fluctuation are considerably lower than are observed in most cool temperate lakes, although simulated respiration and herbivory rates are closer to temperate values than tropical values. Simulated epipelic algae biomass varies an order of magnitude during the year, and this group appears to be a significant part of the food chain. Simulated zooplankton consumption and turnover rates are very high, in part because of the relatively small biomass per individual. Simulation of the model suggests that slightly more carbon is processed through the grazing food chain in Lake Conway than through the detritus food chain.     

The Tyndall coastal simulator

The threat of sea-level rise and climate change means that coastal managers are being increasingly asked to make long-term assessments of potential coastal impacts and responses. In the UK, shoreline management planning (for flood and erosion hazards) and spatial planning now takes a 100 year perspective. An integrated framework across a wide range of physical and social issues is required for the assessment of coastal impacts and consequently for making sound management decisions. This paper provides an overview of the development of the ‘Tyndall Coastal Simulator’ including the underlying philosophy that is being followed. The Simulator is based on a series of linked climate models (CM) within a nested framework which recognises three spatial scales: (i) the global (GCM) scale; (ii) the regional scale and (iii) the Simulator Domain (a physiographic unit, such as a coastal sub-cell). Within the nesting, the larger scale provides the boundary conditions for the smaller scale. The models feed into each other and describe a range of relevant processes: sea level, tides, surges, waves, sediment transport and coastal morphology. Different climate scenarios, as well as the range of uncertainty, are being explored. Communication of results is a major issue and the Simulator includes a dedicated GIS-based user interface that allows a wide range of queries of model outputs. The paper demonstrates the possibility of developing an integrated framework that is multi-scale and capable of linking various models in order to simulate complex coastal processes and consequently allowing long-term assessments that are useful for setting future management plans.     

Fixism and conservation science

The field of biodiversity conservation has recently been criticized as relying on a fixist view of the living world in which existing species constitute at the same time targets of conservation efforts and static states of reference, which is in apparent disagreement with evolutionary dynamics. We reviewed the prominent role of species as conservation units and the common benchmark approach to conservation that aims to use past biodiversity as a reference to conserve current biodiversity. We found that the species approach is justified by the discrepancy between the time scales of macroevolution and human influence and that biodiversity benchmarks are based on reference processes rather than fixed reference states. Overall, we argue that the ethical and theoretical frameworks underlying conservation research are based on macroevolutionary processes, such as extinction dynamics. Current species, phylogenetic, community, and functional conservation approaches constitute short‐term responses to short‐term human effects on these reference processes, and these approaches are consistent with evolutionary principles.     

Integrating product quality and environmental performance through innovation—the l'oréal case

Meeting the demands of today's marketplace has become an increasingly complex challenge for corporations in all industries. The consumer is demanding high-quality products, low cost, and more recently, a new variable: environmental performance. Customers will not accept sacrifices in quality or cost to help businesses meet regulatory requirements or develop environmentally sound products. They want it all. Consequently, companies are faced with the complex task of balancing cost, quality, and environmental performance.     

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER YIELD IN THE UPPER WIND RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: The potential impacts of climate change on water yield are examined in the Upper Wind River Basin. This is a high‐elevation, mountain basin with a snowfall/snowmelt dominated stream‐flow hydrograph. A variety of physiographic conditions are represented in the rangeland, coniferous forests, and high‐elevation alpine regions. The Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to model the baseline input time series data and climate change scenarios. Five hydroclimatic variables (temperature, precipitation, CO₂, radiation, and humidity) are examined using sensitivity tests of individual and coupled variables with a constant change and coupled variables with a monthly change. Results indicate that the most influential variable on annual water yield is precipitation; and, the most influential variable on the timing of streamflow is temperature. Carbon dioxide, radiation, and humidity each noticeably impact water yield, but less significantly. The coupled variable analyses represent a more realistic climate change regime and reflect the combined response of the basin to each variable; for example, increased temperature offsets the effects of increased precipitation and magnifies the effects of decreased precipitation. This paper shows that the hydrologic response to climate change depends largely on the hydroclimatic variables examined and that each variable has a unique effect (e.g., magnitude, timing) on water yield.     

REGULATED RIVER MODELING FOR CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT: THE MISSOURI RIVER1

ABSTRACT: The Great Plains of the United States, drained primanly by the Missouri River, are very sensitive to shifts in climate. The six main stem dams on the Missouri River control more than one‐half of the nearly 1.5 million square kilometer basin and can store three times the annual inflow from upstream. The dams are operated by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers using a Master Manual that describes system priorities and benefits. The complex operational rules were incorporated into the Soil and Water Assessment Tool computer model (SWAT). SWAT is a distributed parameter rainfall‐runoff model capable of simulating the transpiration suppression effects of CO₂ enrichment. The new reservoir algorithms were calibrated using a 25‐year long historic record of basin climate and discharge records. Results demonstrate that it is possible to incorporate the operation of a highly regulated river system into a complex rainfall‐runoff model. The algorithms were then tested using extreme climate scenarios indicative of a prolonged drought, a short drought, and a ten percent increase in basin‐wide precipitation. It is apparent that the rules for operating the reservoirs will likely require modification if, for example, upper‐basin precipitation were to increase only ten percent under changed climate conditions.