Parameterizing,evaluating and comparing metapopulation models with data from individual-based simulations

Due to the lack of sufficient data and appropriate ecological information parameterizing predictive population dynamical models usually is a difficult task. The approach proposed in this study is meant to overcome this problem by using detailed individual-based simulations to generate artificial data. With short-term data samples, the models to be investigated can be parameterized and their predictions be compared. The flexibility of individual-based simulations as experimental tools also facilitates the evaluation and comparison of different (aggregated) model types. The presented approach is a step towards unifying models of different complexity. As an example we applied it to two metapopulation models of insect species in a highly fragmented landscape: the well-known incidence function model with a patch-based representation of space and a grid-based analogue. The models are tested with respect to their data requirement and recommendations for a better data sampling are derived.     

A risk-based screening approach for prioritizing contaminants and exposure pathways at Superfund sites

Contamination at Superfund sites can involve mixtures of chemicals and radionuclides in a variety of environmental media. Determining priorities for evaluation and remediation of various contaminants is an important part of the initial phases of any site investigation. An effective screening analysis at the beginning of the project can help by identifying both those situations in need of immediate remedial attention and those which require further sampling and evaluation. The screening approach discussed here is made up of two sets of calculations designed to provide upper- and lower-bound estimates of health risk to individuals likely to receive the highest exposures. This approach allows rapid identification of contaminants which pose a negligible risk and can be assigned a low priority for remedial attention or which pose a substantial risk and should be given the highest priority for appropriate remediation efforts. Contaminants designated as neither high- nor low-priority should be investigated in more detail prior to making decisions regarding the need for or method of remediation. The utility of this approach has already been demonstrated in the evaluation of contamination in the Clinch and Tennessee River systems originating from historical operations of atomic weapons and energy research facilities near Oak Ridge, Tennessee.     

Arrival timing and seasonal reproductive performance in a long-distance migratory landbird

The date when a landbird migrant arrives on its breeding grounds may have reproductive consequences. Generally, early arriving individuals begin breeding earlier and consequently experience greater seasonal reproductive performance. Here, we describe relationships between arrival timing and seasonal reproductive performance in the American redstart (Setophaga ruticilla), a long-distance passerine migrant, arriving at northerly breeding grounds in Michigans eastern Upper Peninsula. Evidence suggests that both males and females benefited from early arrival at the breeding grounds. Early males appeared to settle on higher quality territories and hatched nestlings sooner than later arrivals. Early females began their clutches early, produced heavier nestlings and possibly laid more eggs than later arrivals. Larger clutches and heavier offspring increase the likelihood of offspring recruiting into the breeding population. The findings of this study point to fitness consequences arising from when a bird arrives at its breeding grounds. These results also have implications for understanding how events occurring during spring migration influence reproductive performance as migratory delays likely influence arrival timing.Communicated by: W. Wiltschko     

Deflection, acceleration, and force corridors for small females in side impacts

OBJECTIVE: This study was undertaken to develop biomechanical corridors applicable to the small-sized female in side impacts. METHODS: Sled tests were conducted using post mortem human subjects at a velocity of 6.7 m/s. Three chestbands were used to compute deflection-time histories at the axilla, xyphoid process, and tenth rib levels. Triaxial accelerometers were fixed to the upper and lower spine and sacrum to record acceleration-time histories. Specimens contacted the load wall with varying initial conditions (rigid and padded; flat wall and offset) from which impact forces to the thoracic, abdominal, and pelvic regions were obtained using load cell data. Adopting signal processing and mass-based scaling methods, corridors were derived for forces, accelerations, and chest deflections at three levels for all initial conditions. RESULTS: All time history corridors were expressed as mean plus/minus one standard deviation and provided in the article. CONCLUSIONS: Acceleration-, deflection-, and force-time corridors obtained for the chest and pelvic regions of the human body will assist in the assessment of anthropomorphic test devices used in crashworthiness evaluations.     

Radiological Dispersion Devices: are we prepared?

Already before the events of September 11th 2001 concern was raised about the spread of orphan sources and their potential use in Radiological Dispersion Devices by terrorist groups. Although most of the simulated scenarios foresee a rather limited direct health impact on the population, the affected region would suffer from the indirect consequences such as social disruption, cleanup requirements and economic costs. The nature of such a radiological attack would anyway be different compared to conventional radiological accidents, basically because it can happen anywhere at any time. Part of the response resides in a general preparedness scheme incorporating attacks with Radiological Dispersion Devices. Training of different potential intervention teams is essential. The response would consist of a prioritised list of actions adapted to the circumstances. As the psychosocial dimension of the crisis could be worse than the purely radiological one, an adapted communication strategy with the public aspect would be a key issue.     

Water Appropriation Systems for Adapting to Water Shortages in Iraq

Climate variability and population growth have intensified the search internationally for measures to adapt to fluctuations in water supplies. An example can be found in the lower part of the transboundary Tigris‐Euphrates Basin where water shortages in 2008‐2009 resulted in high economic costs to irrigation farmers. Losses to irrigators in the lower basin have made a compelling case to identify flexible methods to adapt to water shortage. Few published studies have systematically examined ways to enhance the flexibility of water appropriation systems to adapt to water shortage. This article addresses an ongoing challenge in water governance by examining how profitability at both the farm and basin levels is affected by various water appropriation systems. Four water appropriation systems are compared for impacts on farm income under each of three water supply scenarios. Results show that a (1) proportional sharing of water shortages among provinces and (2) unrestricted water trading rank as the top two appropriation systems. The shadow price of water for irrigation rises from zero at a full water supply level to US$93/1,000 m³ when supply falls to 20% of full levels. Similar methods could be used to analyze challenges facing the design or implementation of water appropriation systems in the world's irrigated regions.     

THOR dummy chest deflection response in oblique and lateral far-side sled tests

Abstract

Objective: The focus of this study is side impact. Though occupant injury assessment and protection in nearside impacts has received considerable attention and safety standards have been promulgated, field studies show that a majority of far-side occupant injuries are focused on the head and thorax. The 50th percentile male Test Device for Human Occupant Restraint (THOR) has been used in oblique and lateral far-side impact sled tests, and regional body accelerations and forces and moments recorded by load cells have been previously reported. The aim of this study is to evaluate the chestband-based deflection responses from these tests.

Methods: The 3-point belt–restrained 50th percentile male THOR dummy was seated upright in a buck consisting of a rigid flat seat, simulated center console, dashboard, far-side side door structure, and armrest. It was designed to conduct pure lateral and oblique impacts. The center console, dashboard, simulated door structure, and armrest were covered with energy-absorbing materials. A center-mounted airbag was mounted to the right side of the seat. Two 59-gage chestbands were routed on the circumference of the thorax, with the upper and lower chestbands at the level of the third and sixth ribs, respectively, following the rib geometry. Oblique and pure lateral far-side impact tests with and without airbags were conducted at 8.3 m/s. Maximum chest deflections were computed by processing temporal contours using custom software and 3 methods: Procedures paralleling human cadaver studies, using the actual anchor point location and actual alignment of the InfraRed Telescoping Rods for the Assessment of Chest Compression (IR-TRACC) in the dummy on each aspect—that is, right or left,—and using the same anchor location of the internal sensor but determining the location of the peak chest deflection on the contour confined to the aspect of the sensor; these were termed the SD, ID, and TD metrics, respectively.

Results: All deformation contours at the upper and lower thorax levels and associated peak deflections are given for all tests. Briefly, the ID metrics were the lowest in magnitude for both pure lateral and oblique modes, regardless of the presence or absence of an airbag. This was followed by the TD metric, and the SD metric produced the greatest deflections.

Conclusion: The chestbands provide a unique opportunity to compute peak deflections that parallel current IR-TRACC-type deflections and allow computation of peak deflections independent of the initial point of attachment to the rib. The differing locations of the peak deflection vectors along the rib contours for different test conditions suggest that a priori attachment is less effective. Further, varying magnitudes of the differences between ID and TD metrics underscore the difficulty in extrapolating ID outputs under different conditions: Pure lateral versus oblique, airbag presence, and thoracic levels. Deflection measurements should, therefore, not be limited to an instrument that can only track from a fixed point. For improved predictions, these results suggest the need to investigate alternative techniques, such as optical methods to improve chest deflection measurements for far-side occupant injury assessment and mitigation.