Fuzzy assessment of land suitability for scientific research reserves

Evaluating the characteristics of a set of sites as potential scientific research reserves is an example of land suitability assessment. Suitability in this case is based upon multiple criteria, many of which can be linguistically imprecise and often incompatible. Fuzzy logic is a useful method for characterizing imprecise suitability criteria and for combining criteria into an overall suitability rating. The Ecosystem Management Decision Support software combined a fuzzy logic knowledge base we developed to represent the assessment problem with a GIS database providing site-specific data for the assessment. Assessment of sites as a potential natural reserve for the new University of California campus at Merced demonstrates the benefits of fuzzy suitability assessment. The study was conducted in three stages of successively smaller assessment regions with increasingly fine spatial resolution and specificity of criteria. Several sites were identified that best satisfy the suitability criteria for a reserve to represent vernal pool habitat.     

Mixed signals: market incentives, recycling, and the price spike of 1995

Environmental economics assumes that reliance on price signals, adjusted for externalities, normally leads to efficient solutions to environmental problems. We explore a limiting case, when market volatility created ‘mixed signals’: prices of waste paper and other recycled materials were suddenly extremely high in 1994–1995, then plummeted back to traditional low levels in 1996. These rapid reversals resulted in substantial economic and political costs. A review of academic and business literature suggests six possible explanations for abrupt price spikes. An econometric analysis of the prices of wood pulp and waste paper shows that factor which explained price changes in 1983–1993 contribute very little to understanding the subsequent price spike. From the econometric analysis and from other sources, we conclude that speculation must have played a major role in the price spike, perhaps in combination with modest effects from changes in government policy and in export demand. If speculatively driven price spikes can disrupt an environmentally important industry such as recycling, what is the appropriate role for public policy? When price volatility is sufficiently disruptive, then measures to control or stabilize prices, rather than interfering with the market, might help to make it more efficient.     

DEVELOPMENT OF AN INTERDISCIPLINARY PLANNING MODEL FOR WATER AND FISHERY MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT: This paper describes the development of an interdisciplinary model that analyzes the effects of resource management decisions on New Mexico fishery production, yield, sportfishing effort, and economic benefit to anglers. The model recreates river flows and materials transported through reservoirs and their tailwaters from 1974 through 1987. Solar radiation, water temperature, phosphorus, nitrogen, suspended solids, and water exchange rates determine primary production. Organic loads from watershed sources, added to primary production, form a trophic base for sportfish forage. Fish production is partitioned into biomass and growth of each age class in sportfish and forage fish groups by differential responses to food type, light, water-level fluctuation and predation. Fish biomass, with angler population distribution and site condition, contributes to determining angler effort and economic benefits. Model users can vary and analyze water level and quality, stocking, fishing regulations, site access, site facilities, and site entry fees. The model (on floppy disks with a user manual) is available for operation on MS DOS compatible computers with a hard disk. Contact R. M. Wilson, NMGF, State Capitol, Santa Fe, New Mexico, 87503.     

Road safety: A perspective and a new strategy

The theoretical understanding of road safety has improved in eight respects: recognizing that there can be no cure, abandoning the language of cause and blame, understanding that we need to go beyond crashes to address their consequences, admitting the importance of exposure, taking into account statistical pitfalls and trends, rejecting arguments based on what stands to reason, attempting project evaluation, and, finally, admitting that cost, not carnage, is the issue. A program is proposed with six components: reorganization of road safety under an independent public health agency, planning for the long range, disengagement of road safety from public concern and public relations, commitment to full truthful disclosure to the public and political leaders, reorganization of professional education and public information, and formulation of a coherent modern research program.     

China

For the first time since the mid-1960s, China became a net oil importer in 1993. That the country will remain a net oil importer is inevitable and probably irreversible for the foreseeable future. In the period to 2000, its crude oil production is projected to increase only 2% annually, while demand for refined oil products is expected to grow at 6.6% per annum. As a result, China's net oil imports are expected to reach 1.3 million barrels per day in 2000, accounting for almost one-third of its projected oil consumption. Most of the imports will come from the Middle East, and China's dependence on Middle Eastern oil is expected to increase significantly in the future .     

粉尘爆炸特殊风险的辨识、评价和控制

针对粉尘爆炸的特殊风险,以粉尘爆炸特征参数为基础,从爆炸环境形成和13种点火源出现可能性两个方面提出了风险辨识方法,突出了爆炸下限和最小点火能在粉尘爆炸风险辨识中的重要性,并以面粉厂制粉系统为例进行了点火源危险性的辨识分析。对控制粉尘爆炸的最新防护方法进行了概括和分析,总结并分析了常用粉尘爆炸预防和防护措施及相关技术装置,指出了对应的使用条件和特点。     

A conceptual model of the role of complex science in local authority consultations about air quality management

There exists a clear imperative across the EU and within the UK towards the enhanced integration of community knowledge in environmental and health decision-making processes. The underlying social force that underpins this dynamic is the drive for a more accountable, transparent and publicly acceptable decision-making arena. However, relatively little research has been undertaken on the evaluation of local air quality management consultation in particular. In this context, the paper presents an evaluation of evidence resulting from questionnaire survey and case study research undertaken in the first round of the statutory process of local air quality management (LAQM), in which local authorities are required to consult on their air quality findings and intentions. We suggest that local authority perceptions of the relative abilities of differing stakeholders' grasp of air quality science, the process that translates that science into policy, and the institutional and organizational status of stakeholders (i.e. whether they are statutory or non-statutory stakeholders) may tend to transitively determine the choice of consultation methods used, the communication strategies chosen and the relative integration of stakeholder feedback into the LAQM decision-making process. In order to interrogate this potentially problematic chain of risk communication events, a preliminary conceptual model has been developed to enable the interrogation of the pathways through, and the obstacles to, the translation of air quality knowledge. The task is to unveil the sequential chains of association that comprise the LAQM risk communication process.     

Skeletal analysis and comparison of bog bodies from Northern European peat bogs

Although numerous bodies were deposited in Western European bogs in the past centuries, few were found and underwent archeological analysis. No studies comparing skeletal structure and mineralization of bog bodies from different ages have been performed to this day. Therefore, the aim of this study was to analyze and compare skeletal features and specifics of the human remains of three bog bodies from the Iron and Middle Ages found in Northern European peat bogs. Demineralization due to the acidic environment in peat bogs was comparably pronounced in all three bodies. Still, the macroscopic state of skeletal preservation was excellent. In addition to contact radiography, we used peripheral quantitative computed tomography to measure cortical bone mineral density. The conservation of skeletal three-dimensional microstructural elements was assessed by high-resolution microcomputed tomography analysis. These techniques revealed severe differences in bone mineral density and enabled us to determine handedness in all three bodies. Additionally, unique skeletal features like intravital bone lesions, immobilization osteoporosis, and Harris lines were found. A deformity of the left femoral head was observed which had the typical appearance of an advanced stage of Legg–Calve–Perthes disease. This study gives detailed insight into the skeletal microstructure and microarchitecture of 800- to 2,700-year-old bog bodies. Skeletal analysis enables us to draw conclusions not only concerning changes in the acidic environment of the bog, but also serves as a diagnostic tool to unravel life circumstances and diseases suffered by humans in the Iron and Middle Ages.