Antimony impurity in lead arsenate insecticide enhances the antimony content of old orchard soils

Lead arsenate was a commonly used insecticide during the first half of the 20th century, particularly in deciduous tree fruit orchards. Antimony is cotransported with As during the ore refining process and could occur as an impurity in commercial lead arsenate products. The total concentrations of As and Sb in eight soil samples collected from eight orchards located throughout central Washington State were analyzed by neutron activation analysis. Total soil Sb concentrations ranged between 0.4 and 1.5 mg kg(-1), while total soil As concentration ranged from 1 to 170 mg kg(-1). Total soil Sb and As concentrations were positively related. Total Pb and As concentrations in four of the soils were substantially higher than natural background, while the Sb to As concentration ratios in these soils were consistent with values measured in three lead arsenate insecticide products. These results confirm that Sb impurity is present in lead arsenate insecticide and has contributed to Sb enrichment of soils on which lead arsenate-treated plants were grown. Although higher than in uncontaminated soils from the same region, the Sb concentrations in the affected soils fall within the normal range observed worldwide and are substantially lower than values associated with impaired human or environmental health.     

Development and evaluation of a Macroinvertebrate Biotic Integrity Index (MBII) for regionally assessing Mid-Atlantic Highlands Streams

The Macroinvertebrate Biotic Integrity Index (MBII) was developed from data collected at 574 wadeable stream reaches in the Mid-Atlantic Highlands region (MAHR) by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (USEPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP). Over 100 candidate metrics were evaluated for range, precision, responsiveness to various disturbances, relationship to catchment area, and redundancy. Seven metrics were selected, representing taxa richness (Ephemeroptera richness, Plecoptera richness, Trichoptera richness), assemblage composition (percent non-insect individuals, percent 5 dominant taxa), pollution tolerance [Macroinvertebrate Tolerance Index (MTI)], and one functional feeding group (collector-filterer richness). We scored metrics and summed them, then ranked the resulting index through use of independently evaluated reference stream reaches. Although sites were classified into lowland and upland ecoregional groups, we did not need to develop separate scoring criteria for each ecoregional group. We were able to use the same metrics for pool and riffle composite samples, but we had to score them differently. Using the EMAP probability design, we inferred the results, with known confidence bounds, to the 167,797 kilometers of wadeable streams in the Mid-Atlantic Highlands. We classified 17% of the target stream length in the MAHR as good, 57% as fair, and 26% as poor. Pool-dominated reaches were relatively rare in the MAHR, and the usefulness of the MBII was more difficult to assess in these reaches. The process used for developing the MBII is widely applicable and resulted in an index effective in evaluating region-wide conditions and distinguishing good and impaired reaches among both upland and lowland streams dominated by riffle habitat.     

Sensitivity of Indices of Biotic Integrity to Simulated Fish Assemblage Changes

Multimetric indices of biotic integrity (IBIs) are commonly used to assess condition of stream fish assemblages, but their ability to monitor trends within streams over time is largely unknown. We assessed the trend detection ability of two IBI formulations (one with traditional scoring and metrics, and one with nontraditional scoring and region-specific metrics) and of similarity and diversity indices using simulations that progressively altered the fish assemblages of 39 streams in the United States mid-Atlantic Highlands region. We also assessed responses to simulated 50% variability in fish abundances, as a measure of background noise. Fish assemblage indices responded little to changes that affected all species proportionally despite substantial changes in total fish number. Assemblage indices responded better to scenarios that differentially affected fish species, either according to life history traits or by increasing dominance of already common species, but even these changes took some time to detect relative to background variability levels. Ordinations of stream fish assemblage data suggested that differences among sites were maintained even after substantial alterations of fish composition within sites. IBIs are designed to detect broad assemblage differences among sites while downplaying abundance changes and variability increases that were the first indications of within-site changes, and they appear more suited to detecting large departures from natural fish assemblages than for monitoring gradual changes such as those our simulations produced. Inferences about causes of assemblage changes should be made with caution because of correlations among species traits and interdependence among IBI component metrics. Site trend assessments should be made based on all available data rather than just by summary indices.     

Fuzzy assessment of land suitability for scientific research reserves

Evaluating the characteristics of a set of sites as potential scientific research reserves is an example of land suitability assessment. Suitability in this case is based upon multiple criteria, many of which can be linguistically imprecise and often incompatible. Fuzzy logic is a useful method for characterizing imprecise suitability criteria and for combining criteria into an overall suitability rating. The Ecosystem Management Decision Support software combined a fuzzy logic knowledge base we developed to represent the assessment problem with a GIS database providing site-specific data for the assessment. Assessment of sites as a potential natural reserve for the new University of California campus at Merced demonstrates the benefits of fuzzy suitability assessment. The study was conducted in three stages of successively smaller assessment regions with increasingly fine spatial resolution and specificity of criteria. Several sites were identified that best satisfy the suitability criteria for a reserve to represent vernal pool habitat.     

Mixed signals: market incentives, recycling, and the price spike of 1995

Environmental economics assumes that reliance on price signals, adjusted for externalities, normally leads to efficient solutions to environmental problems. We explore a limiting case, when market volatility created ‘mixed signals’: prices of waste paper and other recycled materials were suddenly extremely high in 1994–1995, then plummeted back to traditional low levels in 1996. These rapid reversals resulted in substantial economic and political costs. A review of academic and business literature suggests six possible explanations for abrupt price spikes. An econometric analysis of the prices of wood pulp and waste paper shows that factor which explained price changes in 1983–1993 contribute very little to understanding the subsequent price spike. From the econometric analysis and from other sources, we conclude that speculation must have played a major role in the price spike, perhaps in combination with modest effects from changes in government policy and in export demand. If speculatively driven price spikes can disrupt an environmentally important industry such as recycling, what is the appropriate role for public policy? When price volatility is sufficiently disruptive, then measures to control or stabilize prices, rather than interfering with the market, might help to make it more efficient.     

NETWORK DESIGN FOR WATER SUPPLY FORECASTING IN THE WEST1

ABSTRACT: The objective is to develop techniques to evaluate how changes in basic data networks can improve accuracy of water supply forecasts for mountainous areas. The approach used was to first quantify how additional data would improve our knowledge of winter precipitation, and second to estimate how this knowledge translates, quantitatively, into improvement in forecast accuracy. A software system called DATANET was developed to analyze each specific gage network alternative. This system sets up a fine mesh of grid points over the basin. The long-term winter mean precipitation at each grid point is estimated using a simple atmospheric model of the orographic precipitation process. The mean runoff at each grid point is computed from the long-term mean precipitation estimate. The basic runoff model is calibrated to produce the observed long-term runoff. The error analysis is accomplished by comparing the error in forecasts based on the best possible estimate of precipitation using all available data with the error in the forecasts based on the best possible estimate of winter precipitation using only the gaged data. Different data network configurations of gage sites can be compared in terms of forecast errors.     

DEVELOPMENT OF AN INTERDISCIPLINARY PLANNING MODEL FOR WATER AND FISHERY MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT: This paper describes the development of an interdisciplinary model that analyzes the effects of resource management decisions on New Mexico fishery production, yield, sportfishing effort, and economic benefit to anglers. The model recreates river flows and materials transported through reservoirs and their tailwaters from 1974 through 1987. Solar radiation, water temperature, phosphorus, nitrogen, suspended solids, and water exchange rates determine primary production. Organic loads from watershed sources, added to primary production, form a trophic base for sportfish forage. Fish production is partitioned into biomass and growth of each age class in sportfish and forage fish groups by differential responses to food type, light, water-level fluctuation and predation. Fish biomass, with angler population distribution and site condition, contributes to determining angler effort and economic benefits. Model users can vary and analyze water level and quality, stocking, fishing regulations, site access, site facilities, and site entry fees. The model (on floppy disks with a user manual) is available for operation on MS DOS compatible computers with a hard disk. Contact R. M. Wilson, NMGF, State Capitol, Santa Fe, New Mexico, 87503.     

Road safety: A perspective and a new strategy

The theoretical understanding of road safety has improved in eight respects: recognizing that there can be no cure, abandoning the language of cause and blame, understanding that we need to go beyond crashes to address their consequences, admitting the importance of exposure, taking into account statistical pitfalls and trends, rejecting arguments based on what stands to reason, attempting project evaluation, and, finally, admitting that cost, not carnage, is the issue. A program is proposed with six components: reorganization of road safety under an independent public health agency, planning for the long range, disengagement of road safety from public concern and public relations, commitment to full truthful disclosure to the public and political leaders, reorganization of professional education and public information, and formulation of a coherent modern research program.