The impasse over limits to growth: A suggested course of research

An analysis of the long-term demands, supplies and costs for phosphorus is employed as an example of ‘worst case’ research. Worst case research attempts to bound the problems posed in The Limits to Growth relating to running out of minerals and other raw materials by studying the costs of obtaining such materials from some vast source such as common rock. Since the costs of extracting minerals from these near infinite sources are as high as they would go for thousands of years, they represent the upper limit or worst case outlook, especially since the estimated costs are based on current technology. Recycling, conservation and other possibilities are also examined. At least in certain cases it may be possible from such research to make clearer judgements about the questions of exhaustion posed by the ’limits to growth’ literature.     

A Proposed Aquatic Plant Community Biotic Index for Wisconsin Lakes

The Aquatic Macrophyte Community Index (AMCI) is a multipurpose tool developed to assess the biological quality of aquatic plant communities in lakes. It can be used to specifically analyze aquatic plant communities or as part of a multimetric system to assess overall lake quality for regulatory, planning, management, educational, or research purposes. The components of the index are maximum depth of plant growth; percentage of the littoral zone vegetated; Simpson's diversity index; the relative frequencies of submersed, sensitive, and exotic species; and taxa number. Each parameter was scaled based on data distributions from a statewide database, and scaled values were totaled for the AMCI value. AMCI values were grouped and tested by ecoregion and lake type (natural lakes and impoundments) to define quality on a regional basis. This analysis suggested that aquatic plant communities are divided into four groups: (1) Northern Lakes and Forests lakes and impoundments, (2) North-Central Hardwood Forests lakes and impoundments, (3) Southeastern Wisconsin Till Plains lakes, and (4) Southeastern Wisconsin Till Plains impoundments, Driftless Area Lakes, and Mississippi River Backwater lakes. AMCI values decline from group 1 to group 4 and reflect general water quality and human use trends in Wisconsin. The upper quartile of AMCI values in any region are the highest quality or benchmark plant communities. The interquartile range consists of normally impacted communities for the region and the lower quartile contains severely impacted or degraded plant communities. When AMCI values were applied to case studies, the values reflected known impacts to the lakes. However, quality criteria cannot be used uncritically, especially in lakes that initially have low nutrient levels.     

Bisphenol A: emissions from point sources

Bisphenol A is widely used for the production of epoxy resins and polycarbonate plastics. Special in vitro test systems and animal experiments showed a weak estrogenic activity for Bisphenol A. Based on in vitro receptor interaction studies, the activity was estimated to be 2 x 10(-3) lower than that of estradiol. Especially aquatic wildlife could be endangered by waste water discharges. To manage possible risks arising from Bisphenol A contamination, the major fluxes need to be obtained and the contributors to the contamination of municipal treatment plants need to be determined. In this study, industrial emitters and communal waste waters were monitored simultaneously. Mixed samples were taken over periods of one week at nine sample sites. The results showed that the concentrations and fluxes were variable. The paper industry was the major Bisphenol A contributor to the influent of the waste water treatment plant. All the other fluxes measured, including two household areas, were considerably low. About 90% of the total load was removed during the waste water treatment.     

Impact of prolonged rainy seasons on food crop production in Cameroon

This study set out to examine why agricultural production in differing agro-ecological zones of the same country responds differently to a common environmental event (an extension of the rainy season). We find that the heavy reliance of farmers in the drier agro-ecological zones on seasonal cycles make them more vulnerable to an extension of the rainy season than those in regions where rainfall is less relied on. Effects in these vulnerable regions include significant damage to crops as well as a shortage in local markets, which raises prices of basic food commodities. The difference between prices in low and high food producing periods is low for crops that can easily be preserved during rains (such as cassava at 58% from an average of 20% in previous years and yams at 82% from 65%). Crops that depend on sunshine for preservation experience greater differences between low and high periods (maize at 92% from an average of 31% in previous years, sorghum at 180% from 53%, and beans at 68% from 42%). In zones with a history of unreliable dry seasons, farmers are more adapted to coping with an extension of the rainy season and possess technology and skills which can be made available to others in vulnerable zones through inter-regional knowledge transfer of knowledge and skills. This study further reinforces the understanding that isolated climate shocks could be important in understanding and managing vulnerability. Also, vulnerability is quite variable even among communities in the same country, in which people practice the same economic activity and are exposed to the same shock.     

On international equity in reducing emissions from deforestation

Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) can be an effective and efficient means of mitigating climate change. However, the perceived equity in the distribution of financial incentives for REDD could also emerge as a critical issue in international negotiations. The design of reference levels, which provide the benchmark for crediting emissions reductions, affects the economic incentives for national participation in a REDD mechanism and thus the overall willingness to reach an agreement on REDD. This paper compares the equity impacts of five proposed reference level designs using a partial-equilibrium model. Tradeoffs among equity, environmental effectiveness and cost-efficiency indicate the proposals trigger similar aggregate emissions reductions but lead to different outcomes in efficiency and alternative measures of equity. If equity across countries is measured as the financial incentive provided relative to a country's forest carbon stock, then a REDD mechanism compensating a uniform share of at-risk carbon stocks is the most equitable. On the other hand, if equity is evaluated as the financial incentive relative to the opportunity costs of participating in REDD, then the most equitable approach would be compensating emissions reductions but withholding a part of the payments to compensate for carbon stocks, which also encourages broader country participation under our model.     

Food security and climate change in drought-sensitive savanna zones of Ghana

Desertification, climate variability and food security are closely linked through drought, land cover changes, and climate and biological feedbacks. In Ghana, only few studies have documented these linkages. To establish this link the study provides historical and predicted climatic changes for two drought sensitive agro-ecological zones in Ghana and further determines how these changes have influenced crop production within the two zones. This objective was attained via Markov chain and Fuzzy modelling. Results from the Markov chain model point to the fact that the Guinea savanna agro-ecological zone has experienced delayed rains from 1960 to 2008 while the Sudan savanna agro-ecological zone had slightly earlier rains for the same period. Results of Fuzzy Modelling indicate that very suitable and moderately suitable croplands for millet and sorghum production are evenly distributed within the two agro-ecological zones. For Ghana to adapt to climate change and thereby achieve food security, it is important to pursue strategies such as expansion of irrigated agricultural areas, improvement of crop water productivity in rain-fed agriculture, crop improvement and specialisation, and improvement in indigenous technology. It is also important to encourage farmers in the Sudan and Guinea Savanna zones to focus on the production of cereals and legumes (e.g. sorghum, millet and soybeans) as the edaphic and climatic factors favour these crops and will give the farmers a competitive advantage. It may be necessary to consider the development of the study area as the main production and supply source of selected cereals and legumes for the entire country in order to free lands in other regions for the production of crops highly suitable for those regions on the basis of their edaphic and climatic conditions.     

Multicenter clinical experience with non-invasive cell-free DNA screening for monosomy X and related X-chromosome variants

Objective

We aimed to investigate how the presence of fetal anomalies and different X chromosome variants influences Cell-free DNA (cfDNA) screening results for monosomy X.

Methods

From a multicenter retrospective survey on 673 pregnancies with prenatally suspected or confirmed Turner syndrome, we analyzed the subgroup for which prenatal cfDNA screening and karyotype results were available. A cfDNA screening result was defined as true positive (TP) when confirmatory testing showed 45,X or an X-chromosome variant.

Results

We had cfDNA results, karyotype, and phenotype data for 55 pregnancies. cfDNA results were high risk for monosomy X in 48/55, of which 23 were TP and 25 were false positive (FP). 32/48 high-risk cfDNA cases did not show fetal anomalies. Of these, 7 were TP. All were X-chromosome variants. All 16 fetuses with high-risk cfDNA result and ultrasound anomalies were TP. Of fetuses with abnormalities, those with 45,X more often had fetal hydrops/cystic hygroma, whereas those with “variant” karyotypes had different anomalies.

Conclusion

Both, 45,X or X-chromosome variants can be detected after a high-risk cfDNA result for monosomy X. When there are fetal anomalies, the result is more likely a TP. In the absence of fetal anomalies, it is most often an FP or X-chromosome variant.