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31.
Fitting complex population models by combining particle filters with Markov chain Monte Carlo 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
We show how a recent framework combining Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with particle filters (PFMCMC) may be used to estimate population state-space models. With the purpose of utilizing the strengths of each method, PFMCMC explores hidden states by particle filters, while process and observation parameters are estimated using an MCMC algorithm. PFMCMC is exemplified by analyzing time series data on a red kangaroo (Macropus rufus) population in New South Wales, Australia, using MCMC over model parameters based on an adaptive Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. We fit three population models to these data; a density-dependent logistic diffusion model with environmental variance, an unregulated stochastic exponential growth model, and a random-walk model. Bayes factors and posterior model probabilities show that there is little support for density dependence and that the random-walk model is the most parsimonious model. The particle filter Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is a brute-force method that may be used to fit a range of complex population models. Implementation is straightforward and less involved than standard MCMC for many models, and marginal densities for model selection can be obtained with little additional effort. The cost is mainly computational, resulting in long running times that may be improved by parallelizing the algorithm. 相似文献
32.
The invasive red alga Gracilaria vermiculophylla has quickly spread across Europe, but it is unclear whether its success is based on a high tolerance to variations in environmental conditions or to the absence of native grazers that feed on this alga. We tested whether native invertebrate grazers prefer native algae to G. vermiculophylla. Feeding preferences of three common herbivores were quantified when offered G. vermiculophylla and native Fucus vesiculosus, Ceramium virgatum, and Ulva intestinalis in no-, two- and multiple-choice trials. Herbivore growth was measured when fed each of the algae separately. Grazers consumed G. vermiculophylla in no-choice trials, but avoided generally this alga when having a choice. U. intestinalis was always preferred over G. vermiculophylla, and grazers fed with U. intestinalis grew faster than those fed with G. vermiculophylla. We conclude that grazers avoid G. vermiculophylla to most native algae, which may benefit G. vermiculophylla in northern European estuaries. 相似文献
33.
Pérez-Coll CS Herkovits J Fridman O Daniel P D'Eramo JL 《Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)》1997,97(3):311-315
Bufo arenarum females were treated daily with 0.5 mg Cd kg(-1) during 10 days to evaluate the uptake of this heavy metal and the induction of metallothionein synthesis in the liver. The liver incorporated 26% of the Cd administered, about 6.5 times higher than the average uptake of the other tissues of B. arenarum. Three protein fractions from the B. arenarum liver bound Cd, and were induced by this xenobiotic up to approx. 24 times above the basal level of these proteins. 相似文献
34.
ABSTRACTPolicy evaluation has grown significantly in the EU environmental sector since the 1990s. In identifying and exploring the putative drivers behind its rise – a desire to learn, a quest for greater accountability, and a wish to manipulate political opportunity structures – new ground is broken by examining how and why the existing literatures on these drivers have largely studied them in isolation. The complementarities and potential tensions between the three drivers are then addressed in order to advance existing research, drawing on emerging empirical examples in climate policy, a very dynamic area of evaluation activity in the EU. The conclusions suggest that future studies should explore the interactions between the three drivers to open up new and exciting research opportunities in order to comprehend contemporary environmental policy and politics in the EU. 相似文献
35.
In search of human-associated bacterial pathogens in Antarctic wildlife: report from six penguin colonies regularly visited by tourists 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
We investigated the potential role of Antarctic tourism in the introduction of human-associated pathogens into Antarctic wildlife. We collected and analyzed 233 fecal samples from eight bird species. The samples were collected at six localities on the Antarctic Peninsula, which often is visited by tourists. Every sample was investigated for pathogens of potential human origin: Campylobacter jejuni, Salmonella spp., and Yersina spp. None of these bacteria was found. Our data suggest that the tourism industry so far has achieved its goal of not introducing pathogens into the Antarctic region. There is, however, an urgent need to further investigate the situation in areas closer to permanent Antarctic settlements. 相似文献
36.
Dynamics of Turbulence in Low-Speed Oscillating Bottom-Boundary Layers of Stratified Basins 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Lorke Andreas Umlauf Lars Jonas Tobias Wüest Alfred 《Environmental Fluid Mechanics》2002,2(4):291-313
This paper focuses on the impact of an oscillating low-speed current on the structure and dynamics of the bottom-boundary layer (BBL) in a small stratified basin. A set of high-resolution current profile measurements in combination with temperature-microstructure measurements were collected during a complete cycle of the internal oscillation (`seiching') in the BBL of Lake Alpnach, Switzerland. It was found that even a relatively long seiching period of 24 hours significantly changed the form of the near-bottom current profiles as well as the dynamics of the turbulent dissipation rate compared to the steady-state law-of-the-wall. A logarithmic fit to the measured current profiles starting at a distance of 0.5 m above the sediment led to inconsistent estimates of both friction velocity and roughness length. Moreover, a phase lag between the current and the turbulent dissipation of 1.5 hours and a persistent maximum in the current profile at a height of 2.5 to 3 m above the sediment were observed. The experimental findings were compared to the results of a k- turbulence model and showed good agreement in general. Specifically, the inconsistent logarithmic fitting results and the observed phase lag were reproduced well by the model. 相似文献
37.
38.
Conservation operates within complex systems with incomplete knowledge of the system and the interventions utilized. This frequently results in the inability to find generally applicable methods to alleviate threats to Earth's vanishing wildlife. One approach used in medicine and the social sciences has been to develop a deeper understanding of positive outliers. Where such outliers share similar characteristics, they may be considered exceptional responders. We devised a 4‐step framework for identifying exceptional responders in conservation: identification of the study system, identification of the response structure, identification of the threshold for exceptionalism, and identification of commonalities among outliers. Evaluation of exceptional responders provides additional information that is often ignored in randomized controlled trials and before–after control‐intervention experiments. Interrogating the contextual factors that contribute to an exceptional outcome allow exceptional responders to become valuable pieces of information leading to unexpected discoveries and novel hypotheses. 相似文献
39.
Marine Elbakidze Kjell Andersson Per Angelstam Glen W. Armstrong Robert Axelsson Frederik Doyon Martin Hermansson Jonas Jacobsson Yurij Pautov 《Ambio》2013,42(2):160-173
This paper analyzes how sustained yield (SY) forestry is defined and implemented in Sweden and Russia, two countries with different forest-industrial regimes. We first compare definitions of SY forestry in national legislation and policies. Then we study forest management planning in two large forest management units with respect to: delivered forest products and values, how the harvest level of timber is defined, where the harvest takes place, and what treatments are used to sustain desired forest products and values. In Sweden SY forestry is maximum yield based on high-input forest management, and in Russia it is forestry based on natural regeneration with minimum investments in silviculture. We conclude that how SY forestry contributes to SFM depends on the context. Finally, we discuss the consequences of SY forestry as performed in Sweden and Russia related to its ability to support diverse forest functions, as envisioned in sustainable forest management policy. 相似文献
40.
Models to Assess the Risk of Snow and Wind Damage in Pine, Spruce, and Birch Forests in Sweden 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
3 are damaged annually by snow and wind, roughly corresponding to a value of US$150 million, and in Europe, the damage amounts
to hundreds of millions of US dollars each year. To help to reduce these losses, tools for risk assessment within forest management
have been developed. Predictions were developed of the risk of damage from snow and wind to Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), Norway spruce [Picea abies (L.) Karst.] and Birch (Betula spp. L.) plots using tree, stand, and site characteristics. The data were obtained from 6756 permanent sample plots within
the Swedish National Forest Inventory, which were inventoried twice at five-year intervals between 1983 and 1992. Input data
for model development used measurements from the first inventory of tree characteristics for the largest sample tree, stand,
and site data, and records of snow and wind damage from the second inventory. Models were developed for three different regions
for pine- and spruce-dominated sites, while models for the whole country were developed for birch sites. In general the estimated
proportion of damaged plots was highly overestimated (31.7%–56.2%), compared with the observed proportion of 3.4%–11.9%. The
models for Norway spruce comprising tree, stand, and site data show the best predictability of damaged plots, with 60.6%–67.6%
of plots correctly classified. It is concluded that the models developed can be used to detect sites with a high probability
of damage from snow and wind, and thus be used as tools to reduce future damage and costs in practical forestry. 相似文献