Recent sediment accumulation rates in contrasting lakes in the Carpathians (Romania): impacts of shifts in socio-economic regime

Longer-term environmental studies are increasingly used to better understand contemporary ecosystems conditions and for forecasting their future trajectories. Here, we use radiometric measurements and the characterisation of sediment properties from six mountain and a lowland lake in Central Eastern Europe with the aim to assess temporal and spatial variability in sediment accumulation rates (SARs) in relation to three socio-economic regimes: traditional (1840–1948), socialist (1948–1989) and post-socialist (post-1990). We also set out to determine reference conditions for these lakes i.e. conditions before significant human impact. Our results show a trend of increasing SARs from basal sediments (pre 1840) towards the present at only two sites. This contrasts with findings from Western and Central European lakes where SARs have predominantly increased from 1850 towards the top of cores. We highlight the differential impacts of the traditional, socialist and post-socialist periods on the SARs at these lakes. Lowland and mid-elevations lakes (n = 2) were most markedly impacted by the socialist period of land use regime; lakes from the southern Carpathians (n = 2) were more impacted in the traditional period (transhumance pastoral activities), whereas those from the north (n = 3) in the socialist and post-socialist periods (summer pastoralism). Results from our study show a continuous anthropogenic impact during the entire period considered, even in remote mountain areas. This suggests that a temporal frame of 100–150 years is too short to meaningfully register the reference conditions of these lakes. Furthermore, a predominantly natural state may not have existed for centuries in this region.     

Present and future climate conditions for winegrowing in Spain

This study deals with the question of how winegrowing in Spain may be altered by anthropogenic climate change. The present state and expected future development of three bioclimatic indices relevant for winegrowing were assessed by observation, and four regional climate models from the EU-ENSEMBLES project were investigated. When comparing the 2061–2090 scenario period to the 1961–1990 reference period, the models unanimously indicate a significant increase in the mean of the two considered thermal indices over the entire study region. However, for the index based on temperature and precipitation, the models are heavily biased when verified against observations and generally disagree on the size of the projected future change. For this index, unanimous model agreement was only found for northwestern Spain where all models indicated a significant decrease in the mean. From these results, regional climate change is expected to negatively affect the quality of wine in the growing regions of central and southern Spain, and the Ebro valley, whereas positive effects should be expected in the northwest. No significant changes in the risk of mildew infestation are to be expected except for the northwest, where this risk is projected to decrease.     

Larch forests of Middle Siberia: long-term trends in fire return intervals

Fire history within the northern larch forests of Central Siberia was studied (65 + °N). Fires within this area are predominantly caused by lightning strikes rather than human activity. Mean fire return intervals (FRIs) were found to be 112 ± 49 years (based on firescars) and 106 ± 36 years (based on firescars and tree natality dates). FRIs were increased with latitude increase and observed to be about 80 years at 64°N, about 200 years near the Arctic Circle and about 300 years nearby the northern range limit of larch stands (~71° + N). Northward FRIs increase correlated with incoming solar radiation (r = ?0.95). Post-Little Ice Age (LIA) warming (after 1850) caused approximately a doubling of fire events (in comparison with a similar period during LIA). The data obtained support a hypothesis of climate-induced fire frequency increase.     

Fine-grain spatial patterning and dynamics of land use and agrobiodiversity amid global changes in the Bolivian Andes

Our research addresses the gap in scientific research on the fine-grain spatial patterns and social–ecological interactions of land use and agrobiodiversity. The spatial dimension of agrobiodiversity dynamics potentially strengthens the social–ecological resilience and food security of smallholders by buffering risk and vulnerability. Our research integrates the scientific theories, concepts, and methods of spatial externalities, social–ecological interactions, geospatial land and global change sciences, and political ecology. We designed a case study of the Arbieto-Tarata landscape in the Bolivian Andes that comprises a globally significant agrobiodiversity hot spot of Andean maize. The Arbieto-Tarata landscape, which contains nearly 8000 fields at 2500–2800 masl, is representative of mixed-use smallholder agri-food systems amid global changes. Our research predicts spatial spillover and edge effects of combined social and environmental factors leading to the clustering of same-crop fields. Findings reveal significant levels of the predicted clustering between 2006 and 2012. The degree of this clustering is found to differ among geographic and environmental sub-areas reflecting fine-grain variation of local causal linkages. Extra-local causal linkages include high levels of migration, water resource shortages, and urbanization. Results show the influences of informal and formal coordination in the spatial clustering of same-crop fields. This field-level coordination improves the efficiency of resource allocations and lowers costs of production. It enables the viability of high-agrobiodiversity Andean maize in smallholder land use and agri-food systems amid global changes. The article discusses the broader policy and scientific implications of these findings including scaling up and support of the social–ecological resilience of agrobiodiversity globally.     

Assessing the vulnerability of rare plants using climate change velocity,habitat connectivity,and dispersal ability: a case study in Alberta,Canada

Climate change generally requires species to migrate northward or to higher elevation to maintain constant climate conditions, but migration requirement and migration capacity of individual species can vary greatly. Individual populations of species occupy different positions in the landscape that determine their required range shift to maintain similar climate, and likewise the migration capacity depends on habitat connectivity. Here, we demonstrate an approach to quantifying species vulnerabilities to climate change for 419 rare vascular plants in Alberta, Canada, based on a multivariate velocity of climate change metric, local habitat fragmentation, and migration capacity. Climate change velocities indicated that future migration requirements ranged from 1 to 5 km/year in topographically complex landscapes, such as the Alberta Foothills and Rocky Mountains. In contrast, migration requirements to maintain constant climate in relatively flat Boreal Plains, Parkland, and Grassland ranged from 4 to 8 km/year. Habitat fragmentation was also highest in these flat regions, particularly the Parkland Natural Region. Of the 419 rare vascular plants assessed, 36 were globally threatened (G1–G3 ranking). Three globally threatened species were ranked as extremely vulnerable and five species as highly vulnerable to the interactions among climate change velocity, habitat fragmentation, and migration capacity. Incorporating dispersal characteristics and habitat fragmentation with local patterns in climate change velocity improves the assessment of climate change threats to species and may be applied to guide monitoring efforts or conservation actions.     

Livelihood vulnerability approach to assessing climate change impacts on mixed agro-livestock smallholders around the Gandaki River Basin in Nepal

Climate change vulnerability depends upon various factors and differs between places, sectors and communities. People in developing countries whose subsistence livelihood depends mainly upon agriculture and livestock production are identified as particularly vulnerable. Nepal, where the majority of people are in a mixed agro-livestock system, is identified as the world’s fourth most vulnerable country to climate change. However, there is limited knowledge on how vulnerable mixed agro-livestock smallholders are and how their vulnerability differs across different ecological regions in Nepal. This study aims to test two vulnerability assessment indices, livelihood vulnerability index and IPCC vulnerability index, around the Gandaki River Basin of central Nepal. A total of 543 households practicing mixed agro-livestock were surveyed from three districts, namely Dhading, Syangja and Kapilvastu representing three major ecological zones: mountain, mid-hill and Terai (lowland). Data on socio-demographics, livelihood determinants, social networks, health, food and water security, natural disasters and climate variability were collected and combined into the indices. Both indices differed for mixed agro-livestock smallholders across the three districts, with Dhading scoring as the most vulnerable and Syangja the least. Substantial variation across the districts was observed in components, sub-components and three dimensions (exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity) of vulnerability. The findings help in designing site-specific intervention strategies to reduce vulnerability of mixed agro-livestock smallholders to climate change.     

Cognitive and institutional influences on farmers’ adaptive capacity: insights into barriers and opportunities for transformative change in central Arizona

The prospect of unprecedented environmental change, combined with increasing demand on limited resources, demands adaptive responses at multiple levels. In this article, we analyze different attributes of farm-level capacity in central Arizona, USA, in relation to farmers’ responses to recent dynamism in commodity and land markets, and the institutional and social contexts of farmers’ water and production portfolios. Irrigated agriculture is at the heart of the history and identity of the American Southwest, although the future of agriculture is now threatened by the prospect of “mega-droughts,” urbanization and associated inter-sector and inter-state competition over water in an era of climatic change. We use farm-level survey data, supplemented by in-depth interviews, to explore the cross-level dimensions of capacity in the agriculture–urban nexus of central Arizona. The surveyed farmers demonstrate an interest in learning, capacity for adaptive management and risk-taking attitudes consistent with emerging theory of capacity for land use and livelihood transformation. However, many respondents perceive their self-efficacy in the face of future climatic and hydrological change as uncertain. Our study suggests that the components of transformational capacity will necessarily need to go beyond the objective resources and cognitive capacities of individuals to incorporate “linking” capacities: the political and social attributes necessary for collective strategy formation to shape choice and opportunity in the future.     

Conditions for the development of anaerobic digestion technologies using the organic fraction of municipal solid waste: perspectives for Poland

This article outlines problems related to the location of facilities designed to treat the organic fraction of municipal solid waste (OFMSW). Anaerobic digestion (AD) facilities are investigated as a treatment option, while taking into account the aspects of renewable energy generation. This research has been spurred on by the relationship between waste management, energy generation issues and spatial planning procedures. The analysis is focused on urban and semi-urban areas of medium and large cities. One of the most difficult issues associated with siting of waste processing plants is its integration with local infrastructures, avoiding conflicts and negative environmental impacts at the same time. This research aims to analyse possible locations for AD plants fuelled by OFMSW in Poland. Based on the experience gained from other countries and lessons learnt from the analysis of existing facilities in Europe, conditions for the location of this type of waste treatment plants have been defined, with the focus on economic, environmental and social issues. Most likely, the results of the multicriteria decision analysis for siting of municipal solid waste AD plants (M-BIST tool) could be transferred to other countries, especially those with a comparable GDP level and a similar framework for a waste management system.     

Climate change adaptation strategies for transportation infrastructure in Prince George,Canada

Transport infrastructure is particularly vulnerable to climate impacts as it is designed for long operational lives, and both episodic and seasonal conditions contribute to deterioration, disruption and unsafe incidents. There are some examples of adaptation in transportation design, but many communities do not have the capacity to incorporate climate change considerations into infrastructure planning and management. Researchers worked closely with the City of Prince George, in Central British Columbia, Canada, to build on existing work and explore how the City could plan, design, and maintain roads and other structures to account for climate change. A local steering committee was formed, and created and evaluated 23 potential research topics. Two focus areas were selected for further investigation and explored during a workshop with practitioners, researchers, consultants and other representatives. The workshop precipitated an investigation of projected impacts of climate change on road maintenance and road safety, and plans to explore alternative paving techniques. Outcomes of the case study provide insights regarding climate change and local transportation infrastructure, including: how researchers can engage with local experts to explore adaptation; issues local governments perceive as important; and barriers communities face as they attempt to address vulnerabilities.     

A review of vulnerability indicators for deltaic social–ecological systems

The sustainability of deltas worldwide is under threat due to the consequences of global environmental change (including climate change) and human interventions in deltaic landscapes. Understanding these systems is becoming increasingly important to assess threats to and opportunities for long-term sustainable development. Here, we propose a simplified, yet inclusive social–ecological system (SES)-centered risk and vulnerability framework and a list of indicators proven to be useful in past delta assessments. In total, 236 indicators were identified through a structured review of peer-reviewed literature performed for three globally relevant deltas—the Mekong, the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna and the Amazon. These are meant to serve as a preliminary “library” of potential indicators to be used for future vulnerability assessments. Based on the reviewed studies, we identified disparities in the availability of indicators to populate some of the vulnerability domains of the proposed framework, as comprehensive social–ecological assessments were seldom implemented in the past. Even in assessments explicitly aiming to capture both the social and the ecological system, there were many more indicators for social susceptibility and coping/adaptive capacities as compared to those relevant for characterizing ecosystem susceptibility or robustness. Moreover, there is a lack of multi-hazard approaches accounting for the specific vulnerability profile of sub-delta areas. We advocate for more comprehensive, truly social–ecological assessments which respond to multi-hazard settings and recognize within-delta differences in vulnerability and risk. Such assessments could make use of the proposed framework and list of indicators as a starting point and amend it with new indicators that would allow capturing the complexity as well as the multi-hazard exposure in a typical delta SES.