A comparison of sensitivity analysis and error analysis based on a stream ecosystem model

When individual model parameters must be measured in field or laboratory experiments, the provision of feedback information for allocation of research efforts is an important function of modeling. Both sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo error analysis can be used to determine which parameters require intensified measurement effort. When both methods are applied to a stream ecosystem model, the assumptions of sensitivity analysis are violated if reasonable estimates of measurement errors on parameters are used. Sensitivity analysis estimates a linear relationship between a state variable and a parameter and largely ignores higher order effects.In the model investigated in this study, higher-order effects dominate prediction error, and the results of sensitivity analysis are misleading. It is suggested that the simple correlation coefficient derived from analysis of Monte Carlo simulations is a more reasonable way to rank model parameters according to their contribution to prediction uncertainty. For the stream model used in this study, halving variance on the four parameters, indicated as most important by sensitivity analysis, reduces prediction errors by only 2–6%. Halving variance on the four, completely different, parameters with the largest simple correlation coefficients reduces prediction errors by 17–31%.     

Mechanical Equipment Injuries in Small Manufacturing Businesses. Knowledge,Behavioral, and Management Issues

This paper presents findings from an extensive study intofactors that impact upon the high rate of injuries due to mechanical equipment, especially in small manufacturing firms. Issues relating to knowledge of health and safety issues and to management practices have been shown to be extremely important with regards to safety in smaii businesses. Knowledge and awareness of hazards were found to be relatively low and few respondents, especially managers, had received adequate safety training. Managers did not regard the identification and control of risks as a priority. Workplaces generally lacked effective safety management procedures such as safety rules and regulations, procedures for recording and learning from accidents, and clearly defined responsibilities for safety. Some issues requiring further investigation, and some recommendations for improving safety in small businesses, are presented.     

The role of personal experience in frequency of rainwater tank maintenance and policy implications

Domestic rainwater tanks have a long history in Australia, although more recently they have been common only in remote and rural areas. However, in some urban areas, recent drought conditions have led to the promotion of rainwater tanks to supplement domestic water supplies. Evidence suggests that water tank maintenance may be insufficient in many cases, leading to problems with water quality and the potential spread of vector-borne disease. Drawing on research into the impact of personal experience (i.e. procedural knowledge) relating to pro-environmental behaviour, a survey of urban residents with mandated rainwater tanks (N?=?746) was conducted. The study assessed whether past personal history of living with a tank influenced the frequency of tank maintenance behaviours. Analyses indicated that both childhood and prior adult experience with rainwater tanks were important in predicting adequate tank maintenance behaviour, particularly among males. The results also showed that attitudinal perceptions of water culture did not influence maintenance behaviour, whereas direct past experiences did, suggesting an important role for procedural knowledge. These results are discussed with reference to the promotion of tank maintenance and other pro-environmental behaviours through the development of future environmental policies designed to foster the development of pro-environmental skills to empower citizens.     

Energy efficiency and conservation for individual Americans

Americans make up only 4% of the world population, yet currently consume 25% of the world’s fossil fuels. The U.S. imports 63% of its oil and it is predicted that by 2020 the U.S. will be importing 95% of its oil resources. Over the past century, ample and affordable supplies of fossil fuels have powered the growth and prosperity of the economies of the US and other countries. Within this century, world oil supplies will decline while demand is projected to continue to increase, suggesting that we will have to transition to different fuels or become much more energy efficient or both. Looking ahead to the near decades, estimates are that consumers will have to reduce their energy use by at least 50%. This reduction will be necessary in large part due the decline in the availability of conventional oil and gas, but also because the U.S. population will continue to grow in number. Although government action is important, individuals too often discount their ability to make significant contributions to solving such major problems. This investigation identifies how informed and concerned individuals can collectively conserve fossil energy. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue. An erratum to this article can be found at     

Sustainable shrimp fishery management recommendations for a coastal lagoon in Baja California Sur,Mexico

The Baja California Peninsula is considered México's most productive in terms of commercial fisheries. Very few quantitative assessments of the economic importance of this region exist, especially considering artisanal fisheries and their relationships with ecological data. Datasets from government records on shrimp capture in Magdalena Bay, an arid coastal lagoon of Baja California Sur were collected, analysed and correlated with ecological data. Over the 10-year period analysed, fisheries from Magdalena Bay made up 27.5% of the shrimp capture of the state, contributing over US$15.5 million to the economy of the country. The impressive value of this resource warrants considerable attention in the design of land-use plans for the future of the region. Analysis of ecological and economical data on shrimp fishery activities in the Magdalena Bay region enables us to propose recommendations to enhance the sustainable development of the local inhabitants. A thorough assessment of the potential value of alternative economic activities should be conducted to determine their potential to provide similar productive use of the natural resources of the region as the shrimp fishery. Also, from a more specific management viewpoint, harvest rates of small shrimp in the channels should be reduced.     

The Mytilus edulis species complex in southwest England: effects of hybridization and introgression upon interlocus associations and morphometric variation

Loglinear analysis of electrophoretic data from two hybrid Mytilus edulis x galloprovincialis populations in southwest England revealed non-significant associations between genotypes at four allozyme loci, each of which is partially diagnostic for differences between the two taxa. Significant non-random genotypic associations within the context of the non-significant model involved all four assayed loci equally, consistent with their occurrence in a relatively tight linkage group. Multivariate analyses were used to examine electrophoretic variation from the two hybrid populations, and morphometric variation in the hybrid populations and in four allopatric (two M. edulis and two M. galloprovincialis) populations from western Europe While the number of hybrid mussels is high at both sites (22% at Croyde, 53% at Whitsand) the two taxa have largely maintained the genetic differences which exist between them in allopatry. However, morphological differences between the taxa have been eroded for mussels within the hybrid zone, whereas these differences are quite pronounced for mussels from allopatric populations. It is proposed that each taxon within the genus maintains its genetic identity, despite high dispersal potential, widespread hybridization, and high levels of introgression, as a result of adaptation to different environments. The worlwide occurrence of all four Mytilus hybrid zones at ecotones between recognized biogeographical provinces which are characterized by differences in temperature and salinity is consistent with such an interpretation.     

The Inefficiency of Decentralized Non-renewable Resource Extraction: The Case of Soviet Timber

This paper argues that the structure of the government in the former Soviet Union and the present Russia has led to inefficiency in harvesting non-renewable resources such as timber. It analyzes the dynamic optimization problems of the central and local authorities in choosing the path of harvesting and explains the sources and effects of inefficiency. The features of the model are compared with a hypothetical one in which the inefficiency has been removed. This hypothetical model is then applied to suggest some policies for reducing the existing inefficiency.     

Effect of turfgrass cover and irrigation on soil mobility and dissipation of mefenoxam and propiconazole

Irrigation effects on pesticide mobility have been studied, but few direct comparisons of pesticide mobility or persistence have been conducted on turfgrass versus bare soil. The interaction of irrigation practices and the presence of turfgrass on the mobility and dissipation of mefenoxam [N-(2,6-dimethylphenyl)-N-(methoxyacetyl)-D-alanine methyl ester] and propiconazole (1-[[2-(2,4-dichlorophenyl)-4-propyl-1,3-dioxolan-2-yl]methyl]-1H-1,2,4-triazole) was studied. Sampling cylinders (20-cm diam.) were placed in either creeping bentgrass [Agrostis stolonifera L. var. palustris (Huds.) Farw.] or bare soil. Mefenoxam was applied at 770 g a.i. ha(-1) and propiconazole was applied at 1540 g a.i. ha(-1) on 14 June 1999. Sampling cylinders were removed 2 h after treatment and 4,8,16, 32, and 64 days after treatment (DAT) and the cores were sectioned by depth. Dissipation of mefenoxam was rapid, regardless of the amount of surface organic matter or irrigation. The half-life (t1/2) of mefenoxam was 5 to 6 d in turf and 7 to 8 d in bare soil. Most mefenoxam residues found in soil under turfgrass were in the 0- to 1-cm section at 0, 4, and 8 DAT. Residues were found in the 15- to 30-cm section at 4, 8, 16, 32, and 64 DAT, regardless of turf cover or irrigation. The t1/2 of propiconazole was 12 to 15 d in turfgrass and 29 d in bare soil. Little movement of propiconazole was observed in either bare soil or turf.