A comparison of sensitivity analysis and error analysis based on a stream ecosystem model

When individual model parameters must be measured in field or laboratory experiments, the provision of feedback information for allocation of research efforts is an important function of modeling. Both sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo error analysis can be used to determine which parameters require intensified measurement effort. When both methods are applied to a stream ecosystem model, the assumptions of sensitivity analysis are violated if reasonable estimates of measurement errors on parameters are used. Sensitivity analysis estimates a linear relationship between a state variable and a parameter and largely ignores higher order effects.In the model investigated in this study, higher-order effects dominate prediction error, and the results of sensitivity analysis are misleading. It is suggested that the simple correlation coefficient derived from analysis of Monte Carlo simulations is a more reasonable way to rank model parameters according to their contribution to prediction uncertainty. For the stream model used in this study, halving variance on the four parameters, indicated as most important by sensitivity analysis, reduces prediction errors by only 2–6%. Halving variance on the four, completely different, parameters with the largest simple correlation coefficients reduces prediction errors by 17–31%.     

Influence of Restoration Age and Riparian Vegetation on Reach‐Scale Nutrient Retention in Restored Urban Streams

In urban watersheds, stormwater inputs largely bypass the buffering capacity of riparian zones through direct inputs of drainage pipes and lowered groundwater tables. However, vegetation near the stream can still influence instream nutrient transformations via maintenance of streambank stability, input of woody debris, modulation of organic matter sources, and temperature regulation. Stream restoration seeks to mimic many of these functions by engineering channel complexity, grading stream banks to reconnect incised channels, and replanting lost riparian vegetation. The goal of this study was to quantify these effects by measuring nitrate and phosphate uptake in five restored streams in Charlotte and Raleigh, North Carolina, with a range of restoration ages. Using nutrient spiraling methods, uptake velocity of nitrate (0.02‐3.56 mm/min) and phosphate (0.14‐19.1 mm/min) was similar to other urban restored streams and higher than unimpacted forested streams with variability influenced by restoration age and geomorphology. Using a multiple linear regression approach, reach‐scale phosphate uptake was greater in newly restored sites, which was attributed to assimilation by algal biofilms, whereas nitrate uptake was highest in older sites potentially due to greater channel stability and establishment of microbial communities. The patterns we observed highlight the influence of riparian vegetation on energy inputs (e.g., heat, organic matter) and thereby on nutrient retention.     

Mechanical Equipment Injuries in Small Manufacturing Businesses. Knowledge,Behavioral, and Management Issues

This paper presents findings from an extensive study intofactors that impact upon the high rate of injuries due to mechanical equipment, especially in small manufacturing firms. Issues relating to knowledge of health and safety issues and to management practices have been shown to be extremely important with regards to safety in smaii businesses. Knowledge and awareness of hazards were found to be relatively low and few respondents, especially managers, had received adequate safety training. Managers did not regard the identification and control of risks as a priority. Workplaces generally lacked effective safety management procedures such as safety rules and regulations, procedures for recording and learning from accidents, and clearly defined responsibilities for safety. Some issues requiring further investigation, and some recommendations for improving safety in small businesses, are presented.     

Sustainable shrimp fishery management recommendations for a coastal lagoon in Baja California Sur,Mexico

The Baja California Peninsula is considered México's most productive in terms of commercial fisheries. Very few quantitative assessments of the economic importance of this region exist, especially considering artisanal fisheries and their relationships with ecological data. Datasets from government records on shrimp capture in Magdalena Bay, an arid coastal lagoon of Baja California Sur were collected, analysed and correlated with ecological data. Over the 10-year period analysed, fisheries from Magdalena Bay made up 27.5% of the shrimp capture of the state, contributing over US$15.5 million to the economy of the country. The impressive value of this resource warrants considerable attention in the design of land-use plans for the future of the region. Analysis of ecological and economical data on shrimp fishery activities in the Magdalena Bay region enables us to propose recommendations to enhance the sustainable development of the local inhabitants. A thorough assessment of the potential value of alternative economic activities should be conducted to determine their potential to provide similar productive use of the natural resources of the region as the shrimp fishery. Also, from a more specific management viewpoint, harvest rates of small shrimp in the channels should be reduced.     

Characterization of phosphorus species in biosolids and manures using XANES spectroscopy

Identification of the chemical P species in biosolids or manures will improve our understanding of the long-term potential for P loss when these materials are land applied. The objectives of this study were to determine the P species in dairy manures, poultry litters, and biosolids using X-ray absorption near-edge structure (XANES) spectroscopy and to determine if chemical fractionation techniques can provide useful information when interpreted based on the results of more definitive P speciation studies. Our XANES fitting results indicated that the predominant forms of P in organic P sources included hydroxylapatite, PO(4) sorbed to Al hydroxides, and phytic acid in lime-stabilized biosolids and manures; hydroxylapatite, PO(4) sorbed on ferrihydrite, and phytic acid in lime- and Fe-treated biosolids; and PO(4) sorbed on ferrihydrite, hydroxylapatite, beta-tricalcium phosphate (beta-TCP), and often PO(4) sorbed to Al hydroxides in Fe-treated and digested biosolids. Strong relationships existed between the proportions of XANES PO(4) sorbed to Al hydroxides and NH(4)Cl- + NH(4)F-extractable P, XANES PO(4) sorbed to ferrihydrite + phytic acid and NaOH-extractable P, and XANES hydroxylapatite + beta-TCP and dithionite-citrate-bicarbonate (DCB)- + H(2)SO(4)-extractable P (r(2) = 0.67 [P = 0.01], 0.78 [P = 0.01], and 0.89 [P = 0.001], respectively). Our XANES fitting results can be used to make predictions about long-term solubility of P when biosolids and manures are land applied. Fractionation techniques indicate that there are differences in the forms of P in these materials but should be interpreted based on P speciation data obtained using more advanced analytical tools.     

Pyrosequencing reveals bacteria carried in different wind-eroded sediments

Little is known about the microbial communities carried in wind-eroded sediments from various soil types and land management systems. The novel technique of pyrosequencing promises to expand our understanding of the microbial diversity of soils and eroded sediments because it can sequence 10 to 100 times more DNA fragments than previous techniques, providing enhanced exploration into what microbes are being lost from soil due to wind erosion. Our study evaluated the bacterial diversity of two types of wind-eroded sediments collected from three different organic-rich soils in Michigan using a portable field wind tunnel. The wind-eroded sediments evaluated were a coarse sized fraction with 66% of particles >106 μm (coarse eroded sediment) and a finer eroded sediment with 72% of particles <106 μm. Our findings suggested that (i) bacteria carried in the coarser sediment and fine dust were effective fingerprints of the source soil, although their distribution may vary depending on the soil characteristics because certain bacteria may be more protected in soil surfaces than others; (ii) coarser wind-eroded sediment showed higher bacterial diversity than fine dust in two of the three soils evaluated; and (iii) certain bacteria were more predominant in fine dust (, , and ) than coarse sediment ( and ), revealing different locations and niches of bacteria in soil, which, depending on wind erosion processes, can have important implications on the soil sustainability and functioning. Infrared spectroscopy showed that wind erosion preferentially removes particular kinds of C from the soil that are lost via fine dust. Our study shows that eroded sediments remove the active labile organic soil particulates containing key microorganisms involved in soil biogeochemical processes, which can have a negative impact on the quality and functioning of the source soil.     

The role of personal experience in frequency of rainwater tank maintenance and policy implications

Domestic rainwater tanks have a long history in Australia, although more recently they have been common only in remote and rural areas. However, in some urban areas, recent drought conditions have led to the promotion of rainwater tanks to supplement domestic water supplies. Evidence suggests that water tank maintenance may be insufficient in many cases, leading to problems with water quality and the potential spread of vector-borne disease. Drawing on research into the impact of personal experience (i.e. procedural knowledge) relating to pro-environmental behaviour, a survey of urban residents with mandated rainwater tanks (N?=?746) was conducted. The study assessed whether past personal history of living with a tank influenced the frequency of tank maintenance behaviours. Analyses indicated that both childhood and prior adult experience with rainwater tanks were important in predicting adequate tank maintenance behaviour, particularly among males. The results also showed that attitudinal perceptions of water culture did not influence maintenance behaviour, whereas direct past experiences did, suggesting an important role for procedural knowledge. These results are discussed with reference to the promotion of tank maintenance and other pro-environmental behaviours through the development of future environmental policies designed to foster the development of pro-environmental skills to empower citizens.     

Case 5B: Proposed overhead aqueduct (Aqua Marcia) for the city of Rome

These days almost any construction plan gives rise to environmental, economic, and other concerns. In November 1977, the EPA funded a $9,000 two-day seminar at the University City Science Center in Philadelphia to examine the possible merits of Environmental Mediation as a procedure. The study materials supplied in advance contained eight cases for discussion. Case 5B was not one of them and was not prepared by federal officials. Though the situation described in Case 5B dates from 165 BC it is, coincidentally, in the same style and format (situation, problems, possible options) as the other eight cases of current vintage.However, there is one important difference. While the necessary permits for a proposed refinery at Portsmouth, Virginia (Case 2), or for conversion of VEPCO's power plant at Yorktown, Virginia from oil to coal (Case 3), or the Trexler, Pennsylvania, Lake Project (Case 7), may be held up forever, the aqueduct in Case 5B was built and performed its intended function well.     

The Mytilus edulis species complex in southwest England: effects of hybridization and introgression upon interlocus associations and morphometric variation

Loglinear analysis of electrophoretic data from two hybrid Mytilus edulis x galloprovincialis populations in southwest England revealed non-significant associations between genotypes at four allozyme loci, each of which is partially diagnostic for differences between the two taxa. Significant non-random genotypic associations within the context of the non-significant model involved all four assayed loci equally, consistent with their occurrence in a relatively tight linkage group. Multivariate analyses were used to examine electrophoretic variation from the two hybrid populations, and morphometric variation in the hybrid populations and in four allopatric (two M. edulis and two M. galloprovincialis) populations from western Europe While the number of hybrid mussels is high at both sites (22% at Croyde, 53% at Whitsand) the two taxa have largely maintained the genetic differences which exist between them in allopatry. However, morphological differences between the taxa have been eroded for mussels within the hybrid zone, whereas these differences are quite pronounced for mussels from allopatric populations. It is proposed that each taxon within the genus maintains its genetic identity, despite high dispersal potential, widespread hybridization, and high levels of introgression, as a result of adaptation to different environments. The worlwide occurrence of all four Mytilus hybrid zones at ecotones between recognized biogeographical provinces which are characterized by differences in temperature and salinity is consistent with such an interpretation.     

The Inefficiency of Decentralized Non-renewable Resource Extraction: The Case of Soviet Timber

This paper argues that the structure of the government in the former Soviet Union and the present Russia has led to inefficiency in harvesting non-renewable resources such as timber. It analyzes the dynamic optimization problems of the central and local authorities in choosing the path of harvesting and explains the sources and effects of inefficiency. The features of the model are compared with a hypothetical one in which the inefficiency has been removed. This hypothetical model is then applied to suggest some policies for reducing the existing inefficiency.