Community vulnerability and resilience in disaster risk reduction: an example from Phojal Nalla,Himachal Pradesh,India

International Disaster Risk Reduction Frameworks and Indian Plans advocate shared responsibility for reducing disaster risk, in which community vulnerability and resilience conditions are central. This paper presents a case study from the Indian Himalaya (Kullu District) of community vulnerability and resilience conditions following damaging floods, primarily the 1994 Phojal Nalla flood, through the concepts of community heritage and capital. Data were collected in the period 2013–2016, using semi-structured interviews (n?=?129), village reconnaissance and archival/contemporary data searches. The connections between heritage, capital, vulnerability and resilience are complex, but results demonstrate ‘knowledge’ is the principal driver of resilience conditions, via facets of heritage (e.g. religious infrastructure and activities, traditional architectural vernacular, and multi-generational attachments to place) and capital (e.g. income diversification, access to communication technologies, societal welfare measures and positive interactions with water). Persisting vulnerabilities stem from differential access to and implementation of best practice knowledge, governed by social, economic and political conditions. Further improvements in risk reduction require greater consideration of the following: (1) the integration of community local knowledge into the overall disaster management process; (2) the opportunities offered by mobile phone and other technologies for generating and sharing knowledge across society; and (3) the value of under-utilised knowledge of past disaster events, assembled from a systematic evaluation of oral, documentary and landscape evidence, to risk reduction.     

Parameter constraints in a stream ecosystem model: Incorporation of a priori information in Monte Carlo error analysis

Using a model of mass and nutrient dynamics in a stream, we evaluated the use of a priori information (e.g., mass balance constraints, limits for the state variables, etc.) to increase the accuracy and efficiency of Monte Carlo error analysis. The results indicated that a priori information can effectively eliminate physically unrealistic simulations and reduce uncertainty about the predicted values. Some types of a priori information proved more helpful than increased accuracy in measuring model parameters.     

PRICE BEHAVIOR IN THE WATER MARKET OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO1

ABSTRACT Past prices of Colorado-Big Thompson water shares were analyzed using an asset pricing model which incorporated the growth rate in real returns to irrigation water and the value of potential urban water uses. A real growth rate in the returns to irrigation water was estimated at 5.3 percent. Nevertheless, market values for water shares have exceeded capitalized agricultural values since 1969. Historically, urban use potential was heavily discounted, but the implicit discount rate fell rapidly in the last decade. The expectation that water shares will eventually be sold to municipal or industrial consumers now appears to be reflected fully in water prices.     

A TWO-DIMENSIONAL PARTICLE TRACKING ESTUARINE TRANSPORT MODEL1

ABSTRACT: A two-dimensional particle tracking model is developed for estuarine water quality investigation. The method requires only the solution of a two-dimensional hydrodynamics model and, therefore, is more economical to use than conventional multi-dimensional estuarine transport models. The present model does not consider turbulent diffusion, and it handles only conservative constituents. The model was applied to Humboldt Bay, California, where the flushing of sewage effluent was simulated. The model was applied to evaluate the present release plan, and to determine alternative release plans for limiting the transport of sewage effluent into shellfish producing areas Within the Bay.     

Artificial Neural Network-Derived Trends in Daily Maximum Surface Ozone Concentrations

ABSTRACT

Interannual variability in meteorological conditions can confound attempts to identify changes in ozone concentrations driven by reduced precursor emissions. In this paper, a technique is described that attempts to maximize the removal of meteorological variability from a daily maximum ozone time series, thereby revealing longer term changes in ozone concentrations with increased confidence. The technique employs artificial neural network [multilayer perceptron (MLP)] models, and is shown to remove more of the meteorological variability from U.S. ozone data than does a Kolmogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter and conventional regression-based technique.     

Forest-user attitudes toward alternative fire management policies

The formulation and implementation of new fire policies in the national forests depend upon public acceptance. A national survey of organized groups of forest users indicates that, contrary to the concern of many forest managers, considerable support exists for flexible fire suppression policies. Forest users are also willing to accept the risk associated with the manager's use of prescribed fire. However, important intergroup differences do exist. Such variation is discussed in relation to a number of socioeconomic variables, general fire knowledge, specific knowledge about the effects of low-intensity fires, and risk preference levels.     

从法律视角分析三峡库区水环境的保护

随着三峡库区的形成,三峡库区水环境的质量也引起了公众的注意.三峡库区现行的水环境保护法律存在缺陷,即缺乏一部统领性的法律,缺少专门的流域管理机构及协调机制,公众环保意识淡薄,水资源使用制度存在缺陷和污染治理缺乏市场机制.因此,建议采取如下措施:制定三峡库区水污染防治条例,建立库区水环境管理委员会,鼓励公众参与,完善水资源有偿使用制度和排污收费制度.     

Evaluation of the host-specificity and prevalence of enterococci surface protein (esp) marker in sewage and its application for sourcing human fecal pollution

The suitability of the enterococci surface protein (esp) marker to detect human fecal pollution was evaluated by testing 197 fecal samples from 13 host groups in Southeast Queensland, Australia. Overall, this marker was detected in 90.5% of sewage and septic system samples and could not be detected in any fecal samples from 12 animal host groups. The sensitivity of the esp primer to detect the human-specific esp marker in sewage and septic samples was 100 and 67%, respectively. The overall specificity of this marker to distinguish between human and animal fecal pollution was 100%. Its prevalence in sewage was also determined by testing samples from the raw sewage, secondary effluent, and treated effluent of a sewage treatment plant (STP) over five consecutive days. Of the 15 samples tested, 12 (80%) were found to be positive for this marker. In contrast, it was not found in three samples from the treated effluent and these samples did not contain any culturable enterococci. The PCR limit of detection of this marker in freshwater samples was up to dilution 1 x 10(-4) and the number of culturable enterococci at this dilution was 4.8 x 10(1) +/- 7.0 x 10 degrees colony forming unit (CFU). The utility of this marker was evaluated by testing water samples from three non-sewered catchments in Pine Rivers in Southeast Queensland. Of the 13 samples tested, eight were positive for this marker with the number of enterococci ranging between 1.8 x 10(3) to 8.5 x 10(3) CFU per 100 mL of water. Based on the results, it can be concluded that the esp marker appears to be sewage specific and could be used as a reliable marker to detect human fecal pollution in surface waters in Southeast Queensland, Australia.     

中国、印度和世界的新秩序《世界报告2006》第一章(续)

转向世界粮食市场 与严重依赖外国石油的状况形成鲜明对照的是,中国和印度如今在粮食方面处于自给自足的状态,并为它们的成就而自豪（图1-2）.这两个国家都经历过严重饥荒的困难历史,都不希望这一悲剧情况重演.自从1985年以来,中国进口的粮食从来没有超过其消费总量的6%,而印度进口的粮食也没有超过其消费总量的3%（表1-3）.但是,在未来的几十年内,这两个大国是否可以避免求助于全球粮食市场（主要指小麦、水稻、玉米和其他主要基本食品）,已成为这两个国家和全球的一个尚待解决的、重要的问题.这是由于：世界粮食市场与石油市场的状况一样,与20世纪比较,指望生产过剩已经远非那么可靠了.