On the Evaluation of Predictions from a Gaussian Plume Model

The performance of a CRSTER equivalent Gaussian plume model (CEQM) is examined using data from the EPRI Plume Model Validation study at the Klncaid, Illinois site. Four-way comparisons are made on the ordered statistics or the cumulative frequency distribution (CFD) of maximum hourly observed and predicted concentrations. Using the uniform random distribution and the lognormal random distribution as simple predictive schemes without any physical context, it Is found that the CEQM predicts a concentration CFD which matches the observed CFD significantly closer than the CFD predicted by the uniform random distribution. The two-parameter lognormal random distribution predicts the concentration CFD better than the CEQM over all concentration ranges; however, the CEQM fits the upper range of the concentration distribution better than the lognormal random distribution,, despite the fact that the predictions are generated using dispersion conditions entirely different from those of the observations. The nature of this ergodicity of distribution is probed by exercising CEQM using randomized input based on the observed frequency distributions of the Input parameters instead of feeding the hour-by-hour model input matched by time into CEQM as is customarily done. The exercise of the model by uncoupling the time linkage in model Input has no systematic effect on the predicted cumulative frequency distribution of concentrations. Only at the highest concentration range (99.5% or higher) do the two sets of predictions begin to diverge.     

A SCALED HYDRAULIC MODEL OF THE PEACH BOTTOM ATOMIC POWER STATION DISCHARGE1

ABSTRACT: A scaled hydraulic model was used as a schematic representation of the Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station (PBAPS) discharge into Conowingo Pond during critically low river flows. The model approximated flow and temperature patterns and the degree of recirculation are assessed. Under normal operation the effluent is carried downstream and dissipated within about two miles. However, during dry weather years, river inflows can decrease substantially, resulting in unknown recirculation of effluent and flow patterns in Conowingo Pond. This study was conducted to investigate and predict flow patterns in Conowingo Pond under critically dry weather conditions. A threshold river flow is also identified that indicates a measure of the river's ability to maintain downstream advection of the effluent. The study suggests a number of unexpected current patterns, potential recirculation of the effluent, and changes in the dilution of the effluent.     

Development and Application of the 2010 Chesapeake Bay Watershed Total Maximum Daily Load Model

The Phase 5.3 Watershed Model simulates the Chesapeake watershed land use, river flows, and the associated transport and fate of nutrient and sediment loads to the Chesapeake Bay. The Phase 5.3 Model is the most recent of a series of increasingly refined versions of a model that have been operational for more than two decades. The Phase 5.3 Model, in conjunction with models of the Chesapeake airshed and estuary, provides estimates of management actions needed to protect water quality, achieve Chesapeake water quality standards, and restore living resources. The Phase 5.3 Watershed Model tracks nutrient and sediment load estimates of the entire 166,000 km² watershed, including loads from all six watershed states. The creation of software systems, input datasets, and calibration methods were important aspects of the model development process. A community model approach was taken with model development and application, and the model was developed by a broad coalition of model practitioners including environmental engineers, scientists, and environmental managers. Among the users of the Phase 5.3 Model are the Chesapeake watershed states and local governments, consultants, river basin commissions, and universities. Development and application of the model are described, as well as key scenarios ranging from high nutrient and sediment load conditions if no management actions were taken in the watershed, to low load estimates of an all‐forested condition.     

Reducing Air Pollutant Emissions at Airports by Controlling Aircraft Ground Operations

Potential reductions in air pollutant emissions were determined for four strategies to control aircraft ground operations at two case study airports, Los Angeles and San Francisco International Airports. Safety, cost, and fuel savings associated with strategy implementation were examined.

Two strategies, aircraft towing and shutdown of one engine during taxi operations, provided significant emission reductions. However, there are a number of safety problems associated with aircraft towing. The shutdown of one engine while taxiing was found to be the most viable strategy because of substantial emission reductions, cost benefits resulting from fuel savings, and no apparent safety problems.     

Islands at bay: rising seas,eroding islands,and waterbird habitat loss in Chesapeake Bay (USA)

Like many resources in the Chesapeake Bay region of the U.S., many waterbird nesting populations have suffered over the past three to four decades. In this study, historic information for the entire Bay and recent results from the Tangier Sound region were evaluated to illustrate patterns of island erosion and habitat loss for 19 breeding species of waterbirds. Aerial imagery and field data collected in the nesting season were the primary sources of data. From 1993/1994 to 2007/2008, a group of 15 islands in Tangier Sound, Virginia were reduced by 21% in area, as most of their small dunes and associated vegetation and forest cover were lost to increased washovers. Concurrently, nesting American black ducks (Anas rubripes) declined by 66% , wading birds (herons-egrets) by 51%, gulls by 72%, common terns (Sterna hirundo) by 96% and black skimmers (Rynchops niger) by about 70% in this complex. The declines noted at the larger Bay-wide scale suggest that this study area maybe symptomatic of a systemic limitation of nesting habitat for these species. The island losses noted in the Chesapeake have also been noted in other Atlantic U.S. coastal states. Stabilization and/or restoration of at least some of the rapidly eroding islands at key coastal areas are critical to help sustain waterbird communities.     

Extra-pair paternity in eastern bluebirds: effects of manipulated density and natural patterns of breeding synchrony

The causes of variation in rates of extra-pair paternity among avian populations remain unclear, but could include environmental factors such as breeding density and synchrony. By experimentally manipulating nest site availability, we tested the effects of breeding density on the frequency of extra-pair paternity in eastern bluebirds (Sialia sialis). We also examined the role of breeding synchrony on extra-pair paternity using natural timing of nests. Microsatellite analysis revealed 34 of 305 nestlings (11.2%) were the result of extra-pair fertilizations; and 21 of 79 broods (26.6%) had at least one extra-pair nestling. Several measures of breeding density had independent effects on extra-pair paternity. First, experimental plot type affected extra-pair paternity, with 28 of 34 (82.4%) extra-pair young from nests in high density areas, and only six (17.6%) from nests in low density areas. Independently of plot type, the number of breeding neighbors within a 320-m radius was a significant predictor of the likelihood of extra-pair paternity at the nest. Extra-pair paternity was associated with temporal factors such as absolute timing of breeding and natural levels of local breeding synchrony, but only in bivariate comparisons. We found a positive interaction between density of neighbors within a 320-m radius and local breeding synchrony; this term reduced the main effects of synchrony and number of neighbors, but not experimental treatment. Our results demonstrate the importance of utilizing multiple aspects of proximity in breeding density analyses and testing for interactions between ecological factors that can influence the behavioral events leading to extra-pair fertilizations.     

Using Multiple Watershed Models to Predict Water,Nitrogen, and Phosphorus Discharges to the Patuxent Estuary1

Boomer, Kathleen M.B., Donald E. Weller, Thomas E. Jordan, Lewis Linker, Zhi‐Jun Liu, James Reilly, Gary Shenk, and Alexey A. Voinov, 2012. Using Multiple Watershed Models to Predict Water, Nitrogen, and Phosphorus Discharges to the Patuxent Estuary. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1‐25. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2012.00689.x Abstract: We analyzed an ensemble of watershed models that predict flow, nitrogen, and phosphorus discharges. The models differed in scope and complexity and used different input data, but all had been applied to evaluate human impacts on discharges to the Patuxent River or to the Chesapeake Bay. We compared predictions to observations of average annual, annual time series, and monthly discharge leaving three basins. No model consistently matched observed discharges better than the others, and predictions differed as much as 150% for every basin. Models that agreed best with the observations in one basin often were among the worst models for another material or basin. Combining model predictions into a model average improved overall reliability in matching observations, and the range of predictions helped describe uncertainty. The model average was not the closest to the observed discharge for every material, basin, and time frame, but the model average had the highest Nash–Sutcliffe performance across all combinations. Consistently poor performance in predicting phosphorus loads suggests that none of the models capture major controls. Differences among model predictions came from differences in model structures, input data, and the time period considered, and also to errors in the observed discharge. Ensemble watershed modeling helped identify research needs and quantify the uncertainties that should be considered when using the models in management decisions.     

Total Maximum Daily Load Criteria Assessment Using Monitoring and Modeling Data

Applications of Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) criteria for complex estuarine systems like Chesapeake Bay have been limited by difficulties in estimating precisely how changes in input loads will impact ambient water quality. A method to deal with this limitation combines the strengths of the Chesapeake Bay's Water Quality Sediment Transport Model (WQSTM), which simulates load response, and the Chesapeake Bay Program's robust historical monitoring dataset. The method uses linear regression to apply simulated relative load responses to historical observations of water quality at a given location and time. Steps to optimize the application of regression analysis were to: (1) determine the best temporal and spatial scale for applying the WQSTM scenarios, (2) determine whether the WQSTM method remained valid with significant perturbation from calibration conditions, and (3) evaluate the need for log transformation of both dissolved oxygen (DO) and chlorophyll a (CHL) datasets. The final method used simple linear regression at the single month, single WQSTM grid cell scale to quantify changes in DO and CHL resulting from simulated load reduction scenarios. The resulting linear equations were applied to historical monitoring data to produce a set of “scenario‐modified” DO or CHL concentration estimates. The utility of the regression method was validated by its ability to estimate progressively increasing attainment in support of the 2010 Chesapeake Bay TMDL.     

The use of personalised social marketing to foster voluntary behavioural change for sustainable travel and lifestyles

Changing public attitudes and behaviour is key to achieving the UK target of a 60% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by 2050. Top-down campaigns that have provided information to a passive public have not necessarily resulted in pro-environmental behavioural change. This paper examines the use of a personalised social marketing approach to engage the public in changing their personal travel. It provides the results of a project in the City of York to foster voluntary travel behavioural change. Using face-to-face discussions, personalised information and incentives, a statistically significant reduction in car use and an increase in cycling and the use of public transport were achieved over a six-month period. However, this change was not sustained 12 months later. The paper explores the contrasting perspectives on behavioural change and examines the possible lessons that can be learnt to foster voluntary behavioural change in other aspects of household consumption.     

A targeted social marketing approach for community pro-environmental behavioural change

Community-level initiatives will play a key role in meeting greenhouse gas reduction targets. This paper examines the experience gained in applying a targeted social marketing approach to foster local-scale community pro-environmental behavioural change in the City of York, UK. This involved determining the neighbourhood carbon footprint, identifying residents that had access to appropriate infrastructure and were receptive to green issues. Six community teams were recruited from the selected neighbourhoods and provided with information, advice and mentoring on how to reduce their carbon footprint over a six-month period. A statistically significant reduction in carbon emissions was achieved. Each participant achieved a mean reduction in their carbon footprint of 2.0 tonnes of CO₂e/year. The largest reductions were achieved in the areas of shopping and home energy. In addition, it helped to foster community spirit. Based on the experience gained from implementing this approach, a cost-effective model of community engagement is proposed.