Mapping shifts in spatial synchrony in grassland birds to inform conservation planning

Spatial synchrony, defined as the correlated fluctuations in abundance of spatially separated populations, can be caused by regional fluctuations in natural and anthropogenic environmental population drivers. Investigations into the geography of synchrony can provide useful insight to inform conservation planning efforts by revealing regions of common population drivers and metapopulation extinction vulnerability. We examined the geography of spatial synchrony and decadal changes in these patterns for grassland birds in the United States and Canada, which are experiencing widespread and persistent population declines. We used Bayesian hierarchical models and over 50 years of abundance data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey to generate population indices within a 2° latitude by 2° longitude grid. We computed and mapped mean local spatial synchrony for each cell (mean detrended correlation of the index among neighboring cells), along with associated uncertainty, for 19 species in 2, 26-year periods, 1968–1993 and 1994–2019. Grassland birds were predicted to increase in spatial synchrony where agricultural intensification, climate change, or interactions between the 2 increased. We found no evidence of an overall increase in synchrony among grassland bird species. However, based on the geography of these changes, there was considerable spatial heterogeneity within species. Averaging across species, we identified clusters of increasing spatial synchrony in the Prairie Pothole and Shortgrass Prairie regions and a region of decreasing spatial synchrony in the eastern United States. Our approach has the potential to inform continental-scale conservation planning by adding an additional layer of relevant information to species status assessments and spatial prioritization of policy and management actions. Our work adds to a growing literature suggesting that global change may result in shifting patterns of spatial synchrony in population dynamics across taxa with broad implications for biodiversity conservation.     

The Importance of Natural Processes in Understanding Ecosystem Change: A Case Study of Limed Lakes

In order to determine what effects human activities have on natural processes, it is important to thoroughly understand those processes. Unfortunately, we know little about what natural processes are operating, and even less about how they have functioned historically. This paper discusses the importance of natural processes in affecting surface water acidification and the necessity for developing quantitative estimates of natural, as well as anthropogenic, contributions to the acidification of surface waters. A review of the literature and the analysis of chemistry data from six limed lakes in New York and Massachusetts have identified a number of possible processes that may play important roles in acidifying surface waters. At present, these processes are poorly understood and require further research. Once we have such knowledge, we will be able to clearly see the effects of human activities on natural processes and modify those activities in ways that will mitigate negative impact in a predictable manner.     

Fish Cognition and Consciousness

Questions about fish consciousness and cognition are receiving increasing attention. In this paper, I explain why one must be careful to avoid drawing conclusions too hastily about this hugely diverse set of species.     

Method to assess component contribution to toxicity of complex mixtures: Assessment of puberty acquisition in rats exposed to disinfection byproducts

A method based on regression modeling was developed to discern the contribution of component chemicals to the toxicity of highly complex, environmentally realistic mixtures of disinfection byproducts(DBPs). Chemical disinfection of drinking water forms DBP mixtures.Because of concerns about possible reproductive and developmental toxicity, a whole mixture(WM) of DBPs produced by chlorination of a water concentrate was administered as drinking water to Sprague–Dawley(S–D) rats in a multigenerational study. Age of puberty acquisition,i.e., preputial separation(PPS) and vaginal opening(VO), was examined in male and female offspring, respectively. When compared to controls, a slight, but statistically significant delay in puberty acquisition was observed in females but not in males. WM-induced differences in the age at puberty acquisition were compared to those reported in S–D rats administered either a defined mixture(DM) of nine regulated DBPs or individual DBPs. Regression models were developed using individual animal data on age at PPS or VO from the DM study. Puberty acquisition data reported in the WM and individual DBP studies were then compared with the DM models. The delay in puberty acquisition observed in the WM-treated female rats could not be distinguished from delays predicted by the DM regression model, suggesting that the nine regulated DBPs in the DM might account for much of the delay observed in the WM. This method is applicable to mixtures of other types of chemicals and other endpoints.     

Great Basin Land Management Planning Using Ecological Modeling

This report describes a land management modeling effort that analyzed potential impacts of proposed actions under an updated Bureau of Land Management Resource Management Plan that will guide management for 20 years on 4.6 million hectares in the Great Basin ecoregion of the United States. State-and-transition models that included vegetation data, fire histories, and many parameters (i.e., rates of succession, fire return intervals, outcomes of management actions, and invasion rates of native and nonnative invasive species) were developed through workshops with scientific experts and range management specialists. Alternative restoration scenarios included continuation of current management, full fire suppression, wildfire use in designated fire use zones, wildfire use in resilient vegetation types only, restoration with a tenfold budget increase, no restoration treatments, and no livestock grazing. Under all the scenarios, cover of vegetation states with native perennial understory declined and was replaced by tree-invaded and weed-dominated states. The greatest differences among alternative management scenarios resulted from the use of fire as a tool to maintain native understory. Among restoration scenarios, only the scenario assuming a tenfold budget increase had a more desirable outcome than the current management scenario. Removal of livestock alone had little effect on vegetation resilience. Rather, active restoration was required. The predictive power of the model was limited by current understanding of Great Basin vegetation dynamics and data needs including statistically valid monitoring of restoration treatments, invasiveness and invasibility, and fire histories. The authors suggest that such computer models can be useful tools for systematic analysis of potential impacts in land use planning. However, for a modeling effort to be productive, the management situation must be conducive to open communication among land management agencies and partner entities, including nonprofit organizations.     

Soil organic carbon and nitrogen accumulation in plots of rhizoma perennial peanut and bahiagrass grown in elevated carbon dioxide and temperature

Carbon sequestration in soils might mitigate the increase of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere. Two contrasting subtropical perennial forage species, bahiagrass (BG; Paspalum notatum Flügge; C4), and rhizoma perennial peanut (PP; Arachis glabrata Benth.; C3 legume), were grown at Gainesville, Florida, in field soil plots in four temperature zones of four temperature-gradient greenhouses, two each at CO2 concentrations of 360 and 700 micromol mol(-1). The site had been cultivated with annual crops for more than 20 yr. Herbage was harvested three to four times each year. Soil samples from the top 20 cm were collected in February 1995, before plant establishment, and in December 2000 at the end of the project. Overall mean soil organic carbon (SOC) gains across 6 yr were 1.396 and 0.746 g kg(-1) in BG and PP, respectively, indicating that BG plots accumulated more SOC than PP. Mean SOC gains in BG plots at 700 and 360 micromol mol(-1) CO2 were 1.450 and 1.343 g kg(-1), respectively (not statistically different). Mean SOC gains in PP plots at 700 and 360 micromol mol(-1) CO2 were 0.949 and 0.544 g kg(-1), respectively, an increase caused by elevated CO2. Relative SON accumulations were similar to SOC increases. Overall mean annual SOC accumulation, pooled for forages and CO2 treatments, was 540 kg ha(-1) yr(-1). Eliminating elevated CO2 effects, overall mean SOC accumulation was 475 kg ha(-1) yr(-1). Conversion from cropland to forages was a greater factor in SOC accumulation than the CO2 fertilization effect.     

Benchmarking Optical/Thermal Satellite Imagery for Estimating Evapotranspiration and Soil Moisture in Decision Support Tools

Generally, one expects evapotranspiration (ET) maps derived from optical/thermal Landsat and MODIS satellite imagery to improve decision support tools and lead to superior decisions regarding water resources management. However, there is lack of supportive evidence to accept or reject this expectation. We “benchmark” three existing hydrologic decision support tools with the following benchmarks: annual ET for the ET Toolbox developed by the United States Bureau of Reclamation, predicted rainfall‐runoff hydrographs for the Gridded Surface/Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis model developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and the average annual groundwater recharge for the Distributed Parameter Watershed Model used by Daniel B. Stephens & Associates. The conclusion of this benchmark study is that the use of NASA/USGS optical/thermal satellite imagery can considerably improve hydrologic decision support tools compared to their traditional implementations. The benefits of improved decision making, resulting from more accurate results of hydrologic support systems using optical/thermal satellite imagery, should substantially exceed the costs for acquiring such imagery and implementing the remote sensing algorithms. In fact, the value of reduced error in estimating average annual groundwater recharge in the San Gabriel Mountains, California alone, in terms of value of water, may be as large as $1 billion, more than sufficient to pay for one new Landsat satellite.     

Emissions from oil and gas operations in the United States and their air quality implications

The energy supply infrastructure in the United States has been changing dramatically over the past decade. Increased production of oil and natural gas, particularly from shale resources using horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, made the United States the world’s largest producer of oil and natural gas in 2014. This review examines air quality impacts, specifically, changes in greenhouse gas, criteria air pollutant, and air toxics emissions from oil and gas production activities that are a result of these changes in energy supplies and use. National emission inventories indicate that volatile organic compound (VOC) and nitrogen oxide (NO_x) emissions from oil and gas supply chains in the United States have been increasing significantly, whereas emission inventories for greenhouse gases have seen slight declines over the past decade. These emission inventories are based on counts of equipment and operational activities (activity factors), multiplied by average emission factors, and therefore are subject to uncertainties in these factors. Although uncertainties associated with activity data and missing emission source types can be significant, multiple recent measurement studies indicate that the greatest uncertainties are associated with emission factors. In many source categories, small groups of devices or sites, referred to as super-emitters, contribute a large fraction of emissions. When super-emitters are accounted for, multiple measurement approaches, at multiple scales, produce similar results for estimated emissions. Challenges moving forward include identifying super-emitters and reducing their emission magnitudes. Work done to date suggests that both equipment malfunction and operational practices can be important. Finally, although most of this review focuses on emissions from energy supply infrastructures, the regional air quality implications of some coupled energy production and use scenarios are examined. These case studies suggest that both energy production and use should be considered in assessing air quality implications of changes in energy infrastructures, and that impacts are likely to vary among regions.

Implications: The energy supply infrastructure in the United States has been changing dramatically over the past decade, leading to changes in emissions from oil and natural gas supply chain sources. In many source categories along these supply chains, small groups of devices or sites, referred to as super-emitters, contribute a large fraction of emissions. Effective emission reductions will require technologies for both identifying super-emitters and reducing their emission magnitudes.     

Air pollutant concentrations near three Texas roadways, part II: Chemical characterization and transformation of pollutants

Spatial gradients of vehicular emitted air pollutants were measured in the vicinity of three roadways in the Austin, Texas area: (1) State Highway 71 (SH-71), a heavily traveled arterial highway dominated by passenger vehicles; (2) Interstate 35 (I-35), a limited access highway north of Austin in Georgetown; and (3) Farm to Market Road 973 (FM-973), a heavily traveled surface roadway with significant truck traffic. A mobile monitoring platform was used to characterize the gradients of CO and NO_x concentrations with increased distance from each roadway, while concentrations of carbonyls in the gas-phase and fine particulate matter mass and composition were measured at stationary sites upwind and at one (I-35 and FM-973) or two (SH-71) downwind sites. Regardless of roadway type or wind direction, concentrations of carbon monoxide (CO), nitric oxide (NO), and oxides of nitrogen (NO_x) returned to background levels within a few hundred meters of the roadway. Under perpendicular wind conditions, CO, NO and NO_x concentrations decreased exponentially with increasing distance perpendicular to the roadways. The decay rate for NO was more than a factor of two greater than for CO, and it comprised a larger fraction of NO_x closer to the roadways than further downwind suggesting the potential significance of near roadway chemical processing as well as atmospheric dilution. Concentrations of most carbonyl species decreased with distance downwind of SH-71. However, concentrations of acetaldehyde and acrolein increased farther downwind of SH-71, suggesting chemical generation from the oxidation of primary vehicular emissions. The behavior of particle-bound organic species was complex and further investigation of the size-segregated chemical composition of particulate matter (PM) at increasing downwind distances from roadways is warranted. Fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) mass concentrations, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), hopanes, and elemental carbon (EC) concentrations generally exhibited concentrations that decreased with distance downwind of SH-71. Concentrations of organic carbon (OC) increased from upwind concentrations immediately downwind of SH-71 and continued to increase further downwind from the roadway. This behavior may have primarily resulted from condensation of semi-volatile organic species emitted from vehicle sources with transport downwind of the roadway.