A model-based assessment of the environmental impact of land-use change across scales in Southern Amazonia

Regional Environmental Change - This article describes the design of a new model-based assessment framework to identify and analyse possible future trajectories of agricultural development and...     

Estimating population abundance using counts from an auxiliary population

Environmental and Ecological Statistics - We develop a new method for estimating population abundance for notoriously difficult to count populations. This is made possible using an easy to count...     

Deconstructing compassionate conservation

Compassionate conservation focuses on 4 tenets: first, do no harm; individuals matter; inclusivity of individual animals; and peaceful coexistence between humans and animals. Recently, compassionate conservation has been promoted as an alternative to conventional conservation philosophy. We believe examples presented by compassionate conservationists are deliberately or arbitrarily chosen to focus on mammals; inherently not compassionate; and offer ineffective conservation solutions. Compassionate conservation arbitrarily focuses on charismatic species, notably large predators and megaherbivores. The philosophy is not compassionate when it leaves invasive predators in the environment to cause harm to vastly more individuals of native species or uses the fear of harm by apex predators to terrorize mesopredators. Hindering the control of exotic species (megafauna, predators) in situ will not improve the conservation condition of the majority of biodiversity. The positions taken by so-called compassionate conservationists on particular species and on conservation actions could be extended to hinder other forms of conservation, including translocations, conservation fencing, and fertility control. Animal welfare is incredibly important to conservation, but ironically compassionate conservation does not offer the best welfare outcomes to animals and is often ineffective in achieving conservation goals. Consequently, compassionate conservation may threaten public and governmental support for conservation because of the limited understanding of conservation problems by the general public.     

Multiphase extraction radius of influence: Evaluation of design and operational parameters

A common remedial technology for properties with subsurface soil and groundwater contamination is multiphase extraction (MPE). MPE involves the extraction of contaminated groundwater, free‐floating product, and contaminated soil vapor from the subsurface. A network of recovery wells conveys fluids to a vacuum pump and to the treatment system for the contaminated groundwater and soil vapor. This article describes a study of MPE operational data from nine similar remediation projects to determine the most important design parameters. Design equations from guidance manuals were used to estimate the expected radius of influence (ROI) based on measured field data. ROIs were calculated for the vapor flow rate through the subsurface and for the groundwater drawdown caused by the MPE remediation activities. The calculated ROIs were compared to the measured ROIs to corroborate the assumptions made in the calculations. Once it was established that the calculated and field‐measured ROIs were comparable, a sensitivity analysis determined ranges of different design and operational parameters that most affected the ROIs. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Weak climatic control of stand-scale fire history during the late holocene

Forest fire occurrence is affected by multiple controls that operate at local to regional scales. At the spatial scale of forest stands, regional climatic controls may be obscured by local controls (e.g., stochastic ignitions, topography, and fuel loads), but the long-term role of such local controls is poorly understood. We report here stand-scale (<100 ha) fire histories of the past 5000 years based on the analysis of sediment charcoal at two lakes 11 km apart in southeastern British Columbia. The two lakes are today located in similar subalpine forests, and they likely have experienced the same late-Holocene climatic changes because of their close proximity. We evaluated two independent properties of fire history: (1) fire-interval distribution, a measure of the overall incidence of fire, and (2) fire synchroneity, a measure of the co-occurrence of fire (here, assessed at centennial to millennial time scales due to the resolution of sediment records). Fire-interval distributions differed between the sites prior to, but not after, 2500 yr before present. When the entire 5000-yr period is considered, no statistical synchrony between fire-episode dates existed between the two sites at any temporal scale, but for the last 2500 yr marginal levels of synchrony occurred at centennial scales. Each individual fire record exhibited little coherency with regional climate changes. In contrast, variations in the composite record (average of both sites) matched variations in climate evidenced by late-Holocene glacial advances. This was probably due to the increased sample size and spatial extent represented by the composite record (up to 200 ha) plus increased regional climatic variability over the last several millennia, which may have partially overridden local, non-climatic controls. We conclude that (1) over past millennia, neighboring stands with similar modern conditions may have experienced different fire intervals and asynchronous patterns in fire episodes, likely because local controls outweighed the synchronizing effect of climate; (2) the influence of climate on fire occurrence is more strongly expressed when climatic variability is relatively great; and (3) multiple records from a region are essential if climate-fire relations are to be reliably described.     

Populations of the Sydney rock oyster, Saccostrea glomerata, vary in response to ocean acidification

Acidifying oceans are predicted to fundamentally alter marine ecosystems. Over the next century, acute studies suggest that the impacts of climate change on marine organisms and ecosystems may be catastrophic. To date, however, little is known about whether the response of marine organisms varies within a species and whether this provides a potential ??adaptive capacity??. Here, we show that selectively bred lines of the ecologically and economically important estuarine mollusc, the Sydney rock oyster Saccostrea glomerata, are more resilient to ocean acidification than the wild populations. When reared at elevated pCO₂, we found a 25% reduction in shell growth of the selectively bred population of the Sydney rock oyster, Saccostrea glomerata, compared to a 64% reduction in shell growth of wild populations. This study shows that there are significantly different sensitivities to ocean acidification even within the same species, providing preliminary evidence that selective breeding may be a solution for important aquaculture industries to overcome the future effects of ocean acidification.     

Future distribution modelling: A stitch in time is not enough

The last two decades have seen an increasing number of studies assessing the impact of climate change upon biodiversity. A central assumption underpinning research into the potential future habitat of terrestrial biota is that species are presently in equilibrium with their environments and that quantitative climate models adequately represent the distribution of species. Recently, many alarming predictions have emerged concerning the extinction and redistribution of species. Here, we show that even large-scale models of the climatic niche dimensions of species are temporally variable. Distributional models were developed for Salix (willow) species occurring in the province of Ontario, Canada, using three historical climate data sets. Although historical data very accurately represented the distributions of willows, the inherent variability within the models of species based on different periods greatly influenced the direction and magnitude of projected distributional change. We expose a fundamental uncertainty with respect to predicting the responses of species to climate change.     

Assessing options for the development of surface water flood warning in England and Wales

This paper explores the technical options for warning of surface water flooding in England and Wales and presents the results of an Environment Agency funded project. Following the extensive surface water flooding experienced in summer 2007 a rainfall threshold-based Extreme Rainfall Alert (ERA) was piloted by the Met Office and Environment Agency providing initial steps towards the establishment of a warning for some types of surface water flooding. The findings of this paper are based primarily on feedback on technical options from a range of professionals involved in flood forecasting and warning and flood risk management, about the current alerts and about the potential options for developing a more targeted surface water flood warning service. Providing surface water flooding warnings presents a set of technical, forecasting and warning challenges related to the rapid onset of flooding, the localised nature of the flooding, and the linking of rainfall and flood forecasts to flood likelihood and impact on the ground. Some examples of rainfall alerting and surface water flood warning services from other countries are evaluated, as well as a small number of recently implemented local services in England and Wales. Various potential options for implementation of a service are then explored and assessed. The paper concludes that development of a surface water flood warning service for England and Wales is feasible and is likely to be useful to emergency responders and operational agencies, although developing such a service for the pluvial components of this type of flooding is likely to be feasible sooner than for other components of surface water flooding such as that caused by sewers. A targeted surface water flood warning service could be developed for professional emergency responders in the first instance rather than for the public for whom such a service without further operational testing and piloting would be premature.