A General Stochastic Model for the Prediction of Biodiversity Losses Based on Habitat Conversion

We present a model of species extinction rates that depends on the distribution of species and rates of habitat conversion. This model allows prediction of numbers of species lost as well as current extinction rates. We apply the model to plant species in the Neotropics. We examined distribution data for 51 angiosperm taxa, comprising 4258 species from Flora Neotropica monographs. Of these, 25.7% had been recorded as occurring in a single locality, with 12.8% and 9.5% being recorded from two or three localities respectively. Assuming that 18.7% of Neotropical forested area has been cleared since 1950, when 60,000 plant species existed, the model predicts that 3020 species will have been lost by 1992. At current deforestation rates, the entire Neotropics loses between 71 and 95 plant species per year. We also apply the model to individual Neotropical countries and find annual rates of within-country extinctions ranging from 0 per year in Belize to 63 per year in Ecuador. We suggest a means by which the model may be tested in the field.     

History and Importance of Land Use and Protection in the North Quabbin Region of Massachusetts (USA)

Evaluating the consequences and future of land protection requires broad temporal and spatial perspectives of ecological and cultural factors. We assessed the development of a system of protected areas comprising 37% of central Massachusetts in terms of changing rates and means of land protection. We compared protected areas to the surrounding matrix in terms of physical, biological, and historical features and used these results to raise issues concerning future planning. The rate, purpose, and means of land protection in the North Quabbin Region (168,312 ha) have been dynamic as a result of changes in cultural values and transformation of the landscape from predominantly agriculture to forest. Protected lands are managed by 25 federal and state agencies, private groups, and municipal departments and commissions and are physically and biologically typical of the regional landscape which results from (1) participation of diverse organizations with varied agendas; (2) predominance of large government acquisitions driven by landscape-scale criteria; and (3) absence of coordination among groups. The large area, relative homogeneity and largely undeveloped status of the North Quabbin Region suggest conservation goals distinct from those in the fragmented and extensively developed neighboring areas of the Connecticut River Valley and Cape Cod and Islands Region. Large tracts of forests, wetlands, and lakes in the North Quabbin Region provide (1) habitat for species requiring extensive, intact areas; (2) the opportunity to maintain broad-scale ecological processes; (3) connections to regional conservation areas; and (4) recreation. To realize the area's potential, a comprehensive plan must be based on a broad-scale perspective and historical understanding of the landscape.     

The Ecological Component of Environmental Impact Assessment: A Critical Review of British Environmental Statements

Environmental assessment (EA) of the impacts of development is required under the 1985 European Directive 85/337/EEC, which is implemented in Britain primarily through the 1988 Town and Country Planning (Assessmentof Environmental Effects) Regulations. Ecology provides analytical procedures for studying relationships between organisms and their environment and therefore has an obvious role in EA. The status of ecology within the British EA process was investigated by analysing 179 environmental statements (ESs) produced between 1988 and 1993. In many cases, the ecological information provided was so limited in quantity, or of such poor quality, that it was not possible to assess the ecological implications of proposed schemes. Many ESs failed to provide the data necessary to predict ecological impacts. Potential ecological impacts were reported in 93% of statements, but only 9% made any attempt to quantify them. Of those ESs which made references to ecological effects, only 45% based their findings on new ecological survey information. Consultation with statutory consultees for nature conservation was reported in 48% of ESs. Although 78% of ESs mentioned mitigation measures, only 23% described them in detail. A major shortcoming was the universal failure to make any commitment to monitoring of development impacts. In addition to the lack of formal requirements for monitoring, the lack of guidance for ecologists and developers involved in EA is concluded to be a major factor behind some of the shortcomings summarized in this paper.     

Founding Lineages and Genic Variability in Plains Bison (Bison bison) from Badlands National Park, South Dakota

Abstract: Starch-gel electrophoresis was used to screen 101 bison from Badlands National Park, South Dakota, for variation at 24 genetic loci. The population was descended from founder groups of about 6 and 3 individuals, separated geographically for a minimum of 64 years. The purpose of this study was (1) to estimate levels of genic variability in this bison population, (2) to assess the extent to which descendents of the two founder groups differ genetically, and (3) to compare the genetic characteristics of the Badlands population with other bison populations. The Badlands herd was found to be polymorphic for only a single locus (MDH–1). Descendents of the founder groups were homogeneous with respect to allelic and genotypic frequencies at this locus. The MDH–1 polymorphism has not been observed in other bison populations, while several polymorphism reported in other bison populations were not detected in the Badlands herd. A mean heterozygosity of 0.012 was observed in the Badlands herd; this value is lower than that typically reported for mammals, though not as low as heterozygosities seen in other populations that have passed through severe bottlenecks in size. These results underscore the need for genetic data in planning breeding programs for species in captivity or managed in isolate reserves.     

A contact sex pheromone component of the emerald ash borer Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire (Coleoptera: Buprestidae)

Analyses of the elytral hydrocarbons from male and female emerald ash borer, Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire, that were freshly emerged vs. sexually mature (>10 days old) revealed a female-specific compound, 9-methyl-pentacosane (9-Me-C₂₅), only present in sexually mature females. This material was synthesized by the Wittig reaction of 2-decanone with (n-hexadecyl)-triphenylphosphonium bromide followed by catalytic reduction to yield racemic 9-Me C₂₅, which matched the natural compound by gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (retention time and EI mass spectrum). In field bioassays with freeze-killed sexually mature A. planipennis females, feral males spent significantly more time in contact and attempting copulation with unwashed females than with females that had been washed in n-hexane to remove the cuticular lipids. Hexane-washed females to which 9-Me-C₂₅ had been reapplied elicited similar contact time and percentage of time attempting copulation as unwashed females, indicating that 9-methyl-pentacosane is a contact sex pheromone component of A. planipennis. This is the first contact sex pheromone identified in the Buprestidae.     

A viscosity correction factor for shear-thinning liquid flows in safety valves

At the moment there is lack in the existing standards of a sizing procedure for media of more complex rheological behavior than Newtonian. A formulation for the generalized Reynolds number to calculate the viscosity correction factor and size safety valves for the flows of shear-thinning media is proposed in this work. The various formulations in the literature are validated in their accuracy of estimation of the mass flow rates of aqueous solutions of polyvinylpyrrolidone. Among them the generalized Reynolds number defined using the wall viscosity of the annulus between the seat and the disk gives the highest accuracy without overestimating the measured mass flow rates. On the base of these results this generalized Reynolds number is recommended for introduction in the next review of both ISO 4126-1 Part 1 and API 520 for the sizing of safety valves for shear-thinning media.     

Epidemiology of occupational acute traumatic hand injuries: a literature review

The purpose of this review was to summarize the literature on occupational, acute, traumatic hand injury and suggest directions for future research. In 1996, the leading occupational injury treated in United States' hospital emergency departments was an acute hand injury (e.g. laceration, crush or fracture). These injuries affected 30% of an estimated 3.3 million injured workers (990,000). Cuts and lacerations of the fingers ranked third after back and leg strains in the number of lost workday cases in the USA in 1994. The incidence rate of hand injuries studied in seven manufacturing environments around the world ranged from 4 to 11 per 100 workers per year. Workers aged 24 years or less had the highest risk of hand injury. Men had higher rates of severe hand injury than women.Despite the high frequency and significant amount of lost work time associated with these injuries, they are poorly understood from an etiological perspective. There is only one case-control study of occupational hand injury in the literature. That study suggested an important role for both fixed (age) and transient risk factors (doing an unusual task) at the time of the injury. More analytic epidemiological research is needed to identify potentially modifiable risk or protective factors (e.g. glove use) for acute hand injuries. In this regard, the case-crossover design, a relatively new epidemiological approach using cases as their own controls, could prove an efficient method for determining transient, modifiable risk factors for acute, occupational hand injury.     

Twenty-five years of HAZOPs

The HAZOP or hazard and operability study was developed by ICI over 25 years ago and is in wide use today throughout the world. The technique is intended to review, in a formalized manner, the design of a system such as a chemical process production plant to detect potential problems in the operation of the system. The system has been extended for use on all types of production, storage and distribution units. Experience in the use of hazard studies has lead to the development of a phased approach with three distinct design phases.