Statistical Modelling of Extreme Rainfall Indices using Multivariate Extreme Value Distributions

Environmental Modeling & Assessment - Multivariate extreme value models are used to investigate the combined behaviour of several weather variables. To investigate joint dependence of extreme...     

Production and partial characterization of bioemulsifier from a chromium-resistant actinobacteria

Surface-active compounds such as synthetic emulsifiers have been used for several decades, both for the degradation of hydrocarbons and increasing desorption of soil-bound metals. However, due to their high toxicity, low degradability, and production costs unaffordable for use in larger ecosystems, synthetic emulsifiers have been gradually replaced by those derived from natural sources such as plants or microbes. In previous studies, the bacterium Streptomyces sp. MC1 has shown the ability to reduce and/or accumulate Cr(VI), a highly promising advance in the development of methods for environmental clean-up of sites contaminated with chromium. Here, new studies on the production of emulsifier from this strain are presented. The cultivation factors that have a significant influence on emulsifier biosynthesis, as well as the interactions among them, were studied by factorial design. Based upon optimization studies, maximum bioemulsifier production was detected in the culture medium having an initial pH of 8 with phosphate 2.0 g L^?1 and Ca⁺² 1.0 g L^?1 added, with an emulsification index about 3.5 times greater compared to the basal value. Interestingly, in the presence of 5.0 g L^?1 Cr(VI), Streptomyces sp. MC1 retained about 65% of its emulsifier production ability. Partially purified emulsifier presented high thermo-stability and partial water solubility. These findings could have promising future prospects for the remediation of organic- and metal-contaminated sites.     

Social and Ecological Aspects of Resettlement and Villagization among the Konso of Southwestern Ethiopia

TEKLEMARIAM AYELE²
This is a study of the changing settlement and land use patterns of the Konso in three peasant associations in southwestern Ethiopia and an evaluation of their attitudes toward government-sponsored villagization in the lowlands. Over the years, the Konso have moved spontaneously from the overpopulated highlands toward lower elevations and have recently begun to cultivate on the Yanda plain, but without settling there. Fear of tropical diseases, armed conflict with pastoralists and the Konso perception of lowland living continue to be powerful deterrents to settlement in the lowlands. Major objectives of the government villagization programme are unlikely to be achieved in the Konso area and may instead lead to disaster unless this programme is drastically revised to provide suitable conditions for resettlement and to meet the specific needs of the population.     

Characterization of drug and alcohol use among senior drivers fatally injured in U.S. motor vehicle collisions, 2008–2012

Objective: Adults 65 years of age and older comprise the fastest growing demographic in the United States. As substance use is projected to increase in this population, there is concern that more seniors will drive under the influence of impairing drugs. The purpose of this analysis was to characterize the drug and alcohol usage among senior drivers fatally injured (FI) in traffic collisions.

Methods: Data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System were analyzed from 2008 to 2012. Commonly used classes and specific drugs were explored. Rates of drug use, multiple drugs, concomitant drug and alcohol use, and alcohol use alone were generated using Poisson regression with robust error variance estimation. Rates were compared to a reference population of FI middle-aged drivers (30 to 50 years old) using rate ratios.

Results: Drug use among FI senior drivers occurred in 20.0% of those tested. Among drug-positive FI senior drivers, narcotics and depressants were frequent. The prevalence of testing positive for any drug, multiple drugs, combined drug and alcohol, and alcohol use alone among FI seniors were 47% less (relative risk [RR] = 0.53, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.47, 0.62), 59% less (RR = 0.41, 95% CI, 0.34, 0.51), 87% less (RR = 0.13, 95% CI, 0.09, 0.19), and 77% less (RR = 0.23, 95% CI, 0.19, 0.28), respectively, compared to FI middle-aged drivers.

Conclusions: Though overall drug use is less common among FI senior drivers relative to FI middle-aged drivers, driving under the influence of drugs may be a relevant traffic safety concern in a portion of this population.     

Prenatal diagnosis of haemoglobin disorders by cordocentesis at 12 weeks' gestation

Prenatal diagnosis of haemoglobin disorders is accepted to be a useful procedure to avoid births of infants with homozygous diseases. Advances in sampling and molecular techniques, such as polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and chorionic villus sampling (CVS), have made earlier and safer first-trimester prenatal diagnosis possible. However, these procedures need previous studies of at-risk couples, which can be very time-consuming when a number of different β-thalassaemia mutations occur in the region. We describe the possibility of making a first-trimester prenatal diagnosis by cordocentesis and fetal blood analysis at the 12th week of gestation. We found no statistically significant difference (p>0.05) between β/γ values in fetuses at the 12th and 18th weeks of gestation. In seven affected fetuses aborted at the 12th week of gestation, the diagnosis was confirmed in all cases by PCR analysis. These findings suggest that early cordocentesis could be an alternative procedure to CVS and PCR analysis.     

A study on PCB, PCDD/PCDF industrial contamination in a mixed urban-agricultural area significantly affecting the food chain and the human exposure. Part I: soil and feed

This study deals with a PCB, PCDD and PCDF contamination in Brescia, a city in the North-West of Italy, affecting an area with about 11000 inhabitants. The area is close to an industrial plant that produced, in total, some 31,000 ton of PCB. A relevant part of the polluted area is agricultural soil, where cattle were fed with polluted forage and farmers were consuming their own products, so that contamination led eventually to human exposure. Total levels of PCDD/Fs varied from 8 to 592 pgTE(WHO)/g for soil samples and when the dioxin-like PCBs (dl-PCBs) are included, the levels varied from 14.6 to 1033.7 pgTE(WHO)/g. In several cases, the legal limit was exceeded by more than one order of magnitude, with the highest contamination in some agricultural areas and in the surrounding zones. For the forage samples, total levels of PCDD/Fs varied from 0.29 to 2.04 pgTE(WHO)/g and, when dl-PCBs are included, this range increased from 2.04 to 4.75 pgTE(WHO)/g. PCB contamination of the forage through vapor condensation seemed to be relevant. The toxic contribution of dl-PCBs is always relevant and must be considered for risk management. The main component of the contamination source is probably a heavy PCB mixture, such as Aroclor 1262. The study dealt generally with the contamination transfer of PCBs, PCDDs and PCDFs from soil up to humans across the food chain. Results on soils and forages are shown, while measurements concerning the contamination of the animals fed with contaminated forage, and the exposure of the farmers (through human serum analyses), as compared to general population, will be reported in a dedicated paper.     

Persistence and changes in the peripheral Beles basin of Ethiopia

We have investigated the relevance of the notion of “peripheralism” in the Beles basin. In this lowland border area of Ethiopia, important investments require an evaluation of their socio-economic and ecological impacts in the light of Ethiopia’s Climate-Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) strategy. We contrasted literature of different periods with field observations. In the middle and lower parts of the basin, the Gumuz people traditionally practised shifting cultivation. Resettlement of highlanders is particularly linked to water and land resources. A large irrigation project was initiated in the 1980s, but vegetables and fruits face post-harvest losses. Large water transfers from Lake Tana since 2010 affect the movement of people, the hydrogeomorphology, and ecology of the river. In several parts of the basin, the settlers’ economy now dominates. Many Gumuz became sedentary but maintained their agricultural system, particularly in the south of the lower basin. Land titling allowed allocation of “vacant” areas to transnational or domestic investors. As a result, the semi-natural vegetation is frequently replaced by open cropland, leading to decreased carbon storage and increased soil erosion. This and water abstraction for irrigation jeopardise hydropower production, in contradiction with the CRGE objectives. Despite the recent developments, the contrasts in economic activity make the core-periphery dichotomy to remain actual in the Beles basin. The resettlements and permanent cropping tend to make the upper basin part of the core. However, the installation of a transit road and commercial farms in the lower basin do not allow to consider that a non-peripheral integration has taken place.     

Modelling dependence structures of extreme wind speed using bivariate distribution: a Bayesian approach

When investigating extremes of weather variables, it is seldom that a single weather station determines the damage, and extremes may be caused from the combined behaviour of several weather stations. To investigate joint dependence of extreme wind speed, a bivariate generalised extreme value distribution (BGEVD) was considered from frequentist and Bayesian approaches to analyse the extremes of component-wise monthly maximum wind speed at selected weather stations in South Africa. In the frequentist approach, the parameters of extreme value distributions (EVDs) were estimated with maximum likelihood, whereas in the Bayesian approach the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique was used with the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm. The results showed that when fitted to component-wise maxima of extreme weather variables, the BGEVD provided apparent benefits over the univariate method, which allowed information to be pooled across stations and resulted in improved precision of the estimates for the parameters and return levels of the distributions. The paper also discusses a method to construct informative priors empirically using historical data of the underlying process from weather characteristics of four pairs of surrounding weather stations at various distances. The results from the Bayesian analysis showed that posterior inference might be affected by the choice of priors that were used to formulate the informative priors. From the results, it could be inferred that the Bayesian approach provides a satisfactory estimation strategy in terms of precision, compared with the frequentist approach, because it accounts for uncertainty in parameters and return level estimations.     

Bayesian modelling of extreme wind speed at Cape Town,South Africa

In the framework of generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution, the frequentist and Bayesian methods have been used to analyse the extremes of annual maxima wind speed recorded by automatic weather stations in Cape Town, Western Cape, South Africa. In the frequentist approach, the GEV distribution parameters were estimated using maximum likelihood, whereas in the Bayesian method the Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique with the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm was used. The results show that the GEV model with trend in the location parameter appears to be a better model for annual maxima data. The paper also discusses a method to construct informative priors empirically using historical data of the underlying process from other weather stations. The results from the Bayesian analysis show that posterior inference might be affected by the choice of priors and hence by the distance between a weather station used to formulate the priors and the point of interest.