MODELING THE IMPACTS OF WATER LEVEL CHANGES ON A GREAT LAKES COMMUNITY1

ABSTRACT: Recent research that couples climate change scenarios based on general circulation models (GCM) with Great Lakes hydrologic models has indicated that average water levels are projected to decline in the future. This paper outlines a methodology to assess the potential impact of declining water levels on Great Lakes waterfront communities, using the Lake Huron shoreline at Goderich, Ontario, as an example. The methodology utilizes a geographic information system (GIS) to combine topographic and bathymetric datasets. A digital elevation surface is used to model projected shoreline change for 2050 using water level scenarios. An arbitrary scenario, based on a 1 m decline from February 2001 lake levels, is also modeled. By creating a series of shoreline scenarios, a range of impact and cost scenarios are generated for the Goderich Harbor and adjacent marinas. Additional harbor and marina dredging could cost as much as CDN $7.6 million. Lake freighters may experience a 30 percent loss in vessel capacity. The methodology is used to provide initial estimates of the potential impacts of climate change that can be readily updated as more robust climate change scenarios become available and is adaptable for use in other Great Lakes coastal communities.     

Effects of calibration on L-THIA GIS runoff and pollutant estimation

Urbanization can result in alteration of a watershed's hydrologic response and water quality. To simulate hydrologic and water quality impacts of land use changes, the Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment (L-THIA) system has been used. The L-THIA system estimates pollutant loading based on direct runoff quantity and land use based pollutant coefficients. The accurate estimation of direct runoff is important in assessing water quality impacts of land use changes. An automated program was developed to calibrate the L-THIA model using the millions of curve number (CN) combinations associated with land uses and hydrologic soil groups. L-THIA calibration for the Little Eagle Creek (LEC) watershed near Indianapolis, Indiana was performed using land use data for 1991 and daily rainfall data for six months of 1991 (January 1-June 30) to minimize errors associated with use of different temporal land use data and rainfall data. For the calibration period, the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient was 0.60 for estimated and observed direct runoff. The calibrated CN values were used for validation of the model for the same year (July 1-December 31), and the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient was 0.60 for estimated and observed direct runoff. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient was 0.52 for January 1, 1991 to December 31, 1991 using uncalibrated CN values. As shown in this study, the use of better input parameters for the L-THIA model can improve accuracy. The effects on direct runoff and pollutant estimation of the calibrated CN values in the L-THIA model were investigated for the LEC. Following calibration, the estimated average annual direct runoff for the LEC watershed increased by 34%, total nitrogen by 24%, total phosphorus by 22%, and total lead by 43%. This study demonstrates that the L-THIA model should be calibrated and validated prior to application in a particular watershed to more accurately assess the effects of land use changes on hydrology and water quality.     

Managing disposal of water produced with petroleum in Kuwait

Disposal of water produced with petroleum has been of great interest in Kuwait for the last 20 years. The current problem arose when the Burgan oil field, which is the second largest field in the world, experienced successive increases in the water content of the produced oil. This study introduces a decision-making analysis of the considered alternatives for the disposal of the produced water. Four alternative solutions exist for the industry as practical solutions for the disposal of water produced in Kuwait. The first method utilizes a large number of pits to discharge water. The second alternative depends on discharging water into sealed pits. The third approach to dispose water is by injecting the water underground. The last method is similar to the previous one, but takes into consideration the recovery of reservoir pressure to maintain the rate of oil production. A questionnaire was distributed to 48 experts at the top management level of the petroleum companies and the governmental authority. The data collected considered cost, efficiency, and environmental parameters. Based on the data, a statistical analysis was conducted using the factor analysis method to reduce the number of investigated variables. The analysis concluded that the optimal solution is to use the effluent injection method to discharge water produced with oil in Burgan and similar fields in Kuwait.     

Recycling of an industrial sludge and marine clay as light-weight aggregates

The geographical limitations of Singapore, its restricted natural resources and voluminous municipal and industrial waste streams, make environmental management a major challenge for the island state. In an attempt to find ways to reduce importation of raw materials and the waste sent to landfill, light weight aggregates were produced from marine clay and a CaF(2)-rich semiconductor industry sludge. Aggregates were produced in a bench-scale rotary kiln with three clay/sludge loadings (90/10, 70/30 and 50/50%). All three mixtures showed good bloating behavior during firing and the ceramic pellets (1-1.5cm diameter) had densities well below that required for light-weight aggregates. In the initial tests, the pore sizes of the aggregates were in general too large resulting in high water absorption. Comparisons between the composition of the two waste products and the aggregates showed a significant loss of fluorine (40-60%) during processing; a problem which may require flue gas treatment. Leach testing showed that the formed aggregates would not pose a human or environmental hazard in terms of fluorine mobilization.     

Estimates of residual dairy manure nitrogen availability using various techniques

It is common practice to repeatedly apply dairy manure to the same fields. To accurately assess the total plant availability of manure nutrients, it is necessary to account for the nutrients remaining in soil from previous manure applications. A field experiment studying manure nitrogen (N) uptake by corn (Zea mays L.) was conducted from 1998 to 2003 on a Plano silt loam (fine-silty, mixed, mesic, Typic Argiudolls). Plots received two rates of semisolid manure either every year, every 2 yr, or every 3 yr to estimate first-, second-, and third-year dairy manure N residuals. Residual manure N availability was estimated from single and multiple manure applications using (i) the fertilizer N equivalence method, (ii) the apparent recovery (difference) method, (iii) relative effectiveness method, and (iv) recovery of (15)N-labeled manure. Second-year availabilities after a single manure application using the fertilizer equivalence, difference, and relative effectiveness methods were estimated to be 12, 8, and 4% of total manure N applications, respectively. Estimates of third-year availability by these methods were 3, 1, and 5%, respectively. Measurement of (15)N recovered from labeled manure was 6 and 2% in the second and third year, respectively. Fertilizer equivalence, difference, and relative effectiveness methods showed great year to year variability, reducing the confidence in the residual manure N availability estimates by these methods, but using (15)N-labeled manures reduced variability substantially. Based on this and other studies, we suggest that second- and third-year residual N availability from a single application of semisolid dairy manure would be 9 to 12%, and 3 to 5% of the original manure N application, respectively.     

Sorption and degradation of pesticides in nursery recycling ponds

Knowledge of pesticide distribution and persistence in nursery recycling pond water and sediment is critical for preventing phytotoxicity of pesticides during water reuse and to assess their impacts to the environment. In this study, sorption and degradation of four commonly used pesticides (diazinon, chlorpyrifos, chlorothalonil, and pendimethalin) in sediments from two nursery recycling ponds was investigated. Results showed that diazinon and chlorothalonil were moderately sorbed [K(OC) (soil organic carbon distribution coefficient) from 732 to 2.45 x 10(3) mL g(-1)] to the sediments, and their sorption was mainly attributable to organic matter content, whereas chlorpyrifos and pendimethalin were strongly sorbed (K(OC) > or = 7.43 x 10(3) mL g(-1)) to the sediments, and their sorption was related to both organic matter content and sediment texture. The persistence of diazinon and chlorpyrifos was moderate under aerobic conditions (half-lives = 8 to 32 d), and increased under anaerobic conditions (half-lives = 12 to 53 d). In contrast, chlorothalonil and pendimethalin were quickly degraded under aerobic conditions with half-lives < 2.8 d, and their degradation was further enhanced under anaerobic conditions (half-lives < 1.9 d). The strong sorption of chlorpyrifos and pendimethalin by the sediments suggests that the practice of recycling nursery runoff would effectively retain these compounds in the recycling pond, minimizing their offsite movement. The prolonged persistence of diazinon and chlorpyrifos, however, implies that incidental spills, such as overflows caused by storm events, may contribute significant loads of such pesticides into downstream surface water bodies.     

Effects of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide on biomass and carbon accumulation in a model regenerating longleaf pine community

Plant species vary in response to atmospheric CO2 concentration due to differences in physiology, morphology, phenology, and symbiotic relationships. These differences make it very difficult to predict how plant communities will respond to elevated CO2. Such information is critical to furthering our understanding of community and ecosystem responses to global climate change. To determine how a simple plant community might respond to elevated CO2, a model regenerating longleaf pine community composed of five species was exposed to two CO2 regimes (ambient, 365 micromol mol(-1) and elevated, 720 micromol mol(-1)) for 3 yr. Total above- and belowground biomass was 70 and 49% greater, respectively, in CO2-enriched plots. Carbon (C) content followed a response pattern similar to biomass, resulting in a significant increase of 13.8 Mg C ha(-1) under elevated CO2. Responses of individual species, however, varied. Longleaf pine (Pinus palustris Mill.) was primarily responsible for the positive response to CO2 enrichment. Wiregrass (Aristida stricta Michx.), rattlebox (Crotalaria rotundifolia Walt. Ex Gmel.), and butterfly weed (Asclepias tuberosa L.) exhibited negative above- and belowground biomass responses to elevated CO2, while sand post oak (Quercus margaretta Ashe) did not differ significantly between CO2 treatments. As with pine, C content followed patterns similar to biomass. Elevated CO2 resulted in alterations in community structure. Longleaf pine comprised 88% of total biomass in CO2-enriched plots, but only 76% in ambient plots. In contrast, wiregrass, rattlebox, and butterfly weed comprised 19% in ambient CO2 plots, but only 8% under high CO2. Therefore, while longleaf pine may perform well in a high CO2 world, other members of this community may not compete as well, which could alter community function. Effects of elevated CO2 on plant communities are complex, dynamic, and difficult to predict, clearly demonstrating the need for more research in this important area of global change science.     

Soil organic carbon and nitrogen accumulation in plots of rhizoma perennial peanut and bahiagrass grown in elevated carbon dioxide and temperature

Carbon sequestration in soils might mitigate the increase of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere. Two contrasting subtropical perennial forage species, bahiagrass (BG; Paspalum notatum Flügge; C4), and rhizoma perennial peanut (PP; Arachis glabrata Benth.; C3 legume), were grown at Gainesville, Florida, in field soil plots in four temperature zones of four temperature-gradient greenhouses, two each at CO2 concentrations of 360 and 700 micromol mol(-1). The site had been cultivated with annual crops for more than 20 yr. Herbage was harvested three to four times each year. Soil samples from the top 20 cm were collected in February 1995, before plant establishment, and in December 2000 at the end of the project. Overall mean soil organic carbon (SOC) gains across 6 yr were 1.396 and 0.746 g kg(-1) in BG and PP, respectively, indicating that BG plots accumulated more SOC than PP. Mean SOC gains in BG plots at 700 and 360 micromol mol(-1) CO2 were 1.450 and 1.343 g kg(-1), respectively (not statistically different). Mean SOC gains in PP plots at 700 and 360 micromol mol(-1) CO2 were 0.949 and 0.544 g kg(-1), respectively, an increase caused by elevated CO2. Relative SON accumulations were similar to SOC increases. Overall mean annual SOC accumulation, pooled for forages and CO2 treatments, was 540 kg ha(-1) yr(-1). Eliminating elevated CO2 effects, overall mean SOC accumulation was 475 kg ha(-1) yr(-1). Conversion from cropland to forages was a greater factor in SOC accumulation than the CO2 fertilization effect.     

Distance and flow effects on microsphere transport in a large gravel column

Consumption of microbially contaminated ground water can cause adverse health effects and the processes involved in pathogen transport in aquifers need to be understood. The influences of distance, flow velocity, and colloid size on colloid transport were examined in homogenous pea-gravel media using an 8-m column and three sizes (1, 5, and 10 microm) of microspheres. Experiments were conducted at three flow rates by simultaneously injecting microspheres with a conservative tracer, bromide. Observed concentrations were simulated with CXTFIT and analyzed with filtration theory. The results demonstrate that colloid concentration is strongly log-linearly related to transport distance (as suggested by filtration theory) in coarse gravels, similar to our previous field studies. In contrast, the log-linear relationship is often reported to be invalid in fine porous media. The observed log-linear relationship is possibly because straining is negligible in the coarse gravels investigated. This has implications in predicting setback distances for land disposal of effluent, and suggests that setback distances in gravel aquifers can be estimated using constant spatial removal rates (f). There was an inverse relationship between transport distance and colloidal concentration, but not with temporal attachment rate (katt) and collision coefficient (alpha). Increases in flow velocity result in increasing colloidal recovery, katt and alpha but decreasing f. Increases in sphere size result in decreasing colloidal recovery with increasing katt, f, alpha, and velocity enhancement. Diffusion is the dominant collision mechanism for 1-microm spheres (81-88%), while settling dominates for 5- and 10-microm spheres (> 87%), and interception is very small for all spheres investigated.     

Environmental assessment of mercury dispersion, transformation and bioavailability in the Lake Victoria Goldfields, Tanzania

Environmental dispersion and transformation of mercury discharged from gold mining operations has been investigated in field and laboratory studies in order to provide better understanding of the degree of mercury (Hg) pollution and bioavailability in the Lake Victoria goldfields (LVGF) ecosystems. This paper reviews results already published elsewhere and presents additional data on Hg dynamics in the LVGF. Studies conducted at the Mugusu and Rwamagaza artisanal mines indicated different degrees of Hg contamination and dispersion in environmental matrices. Mercury concentration in contaminated river sediments near the Mugusu mine varied from 6.0 to 0.5 mg/kg on a dry weight basis. The highest Hg contamination levels (165-232 mg/kg) were associated with mine tailings at the Rwamagaza mine. Mercury concentrations in fish representing different dietary habits on the southwestern shore of Lake Victoria at the Nungwe Bay were very low (2-35 microg/kg) and thought to represent background levels. These and other results suggested that the use of Hg in gold extraction in the LVGF has not caused high Hg levels in lake fish. The study of Hg in lichens showed Parmelia lichen to be an effective bioindicator for atmospheric Hg contamination due to Hg emissions from gold-amalgam firing and purification operations. The Hg levels in the lichens around the Mugusu mine ranged from 3.1 to 0.1 microg/g; the highest levels were recorded in the lichens sampled close to gold-amalgam processing sites. The regional background level in the Parmelia lichen was 0.05-0.10 microg/g, with a mean level of 0.07 microg/g. Studies of Hg transformation in the mine tailings revealed unexpectedly high methylmercury (MeHg) levels in the tailings (629-710 ng/g), which indicated that oxidation and methylation of metallic Hg in the tailings occurred at significant levels under tropical conditions. Re-equilibration of the tailings with freshwater (FW) indicated the MeHg was firmly bound in the tailings and therefore very little MeHg was released to the water column (0.2-1.5 ng/L). The methylation of Hg in tropical loamy clay soil contaminated with HgCl(2) (5 mg Hg/kg) yielded MeHg concentrations of 11 and 14 ng/g when inundated with seawater and FW, respectively, for 4 weeks. Little MeHg was transferred from the soil to the equilibrated water (< or = 0.4 ng/L). Atmospheric exposure of the soil pre-inundated with FW resulted in net degradation of MeHg during the 1st week of exposure, followed by net production and accumulation of MeHg in the soil (up to 15.5 ng/g) during atmospheric desiccation. Mercury uptake by fish from the Hg(0)-contaminated aquatic sediment-tailings system in the aquarium experiment was found to be low, suggesting the low availability of MeHg for bioaccumulation in the system. These and other results provide useful insights into Hg transformation, mobility and bioavailability in tropical aquatic systems affected by Hg pollution from gold mining operations.