Assessing ecological risk on a regional scale

Society needs a quantitative and systematic way to estimate and compare the impacts of environmental problems that affect large geographic areas. This paper presents an approach for regional risk assessment that combines regional assessment methods and landscape ecology theory with an existing framework for ecological risk assessment. Risk assessment evaluates the effects of an environmental change on a valued natural resource and interprets the significance of those effects in light of the uncertainties identified in each component of the assessment process. Unique and important issues for regional risk assessment are emphasized; these include the definition of the disturbance scenario, the assessment boundary definition, and the spatial heterogeneity of the landscape. Although the research described in this article has been funded wholly or in part by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) through Interagency Agreement Number DW89932112-01-2 to the U.S. Department of Energy, it has not been subjected to EPA review and therefore does not necessarily reflect the views of EPA and no official endorsement should be inferred.     

Treatment of risk in environmental impact assessment

Risk assessment and environmental impact assessment have developed as separate traditions. While environmental impact assessment is a broad field that includes all activities that attempt to analyze and evaluate the effects of human and related actions on the environment, risk assessment has been concerned with the relatively well-defined regulatory problems and employs formal quantitative analysis of the probability of specific undesired events, such as cancer. Risk analytic approaches, particularly the explicit treatment of uncertainty, can significantly contribute to environmental assessments. This article discusses the type and sources of uncertainty in environmental assessments, techniques for their quantification, and ways to use uncertainty estimates to calculate probabilities of effects or probabilities of exceeding environmental standards and to determine the need for mitigation or additional research.This article was presented at the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis, Task Force Meeting on Risk and Policy Analysis under Conditions of Uncertainty, Laxenburg, Austria, November 1985.     

Evaluation of methods for determining adverse impacts of air pollution on terrestrial ecosystems

Methods used to determine adverse impacts of air pollution on four levels of biological organization of terrestrial ecosystems were evaluated for their use in decision making by federal land managers of class I areas and as guidelines for scientists employed to design field studies in these areas. At the level of the individual, visible injury, biomass, and sulfur uptake were the most often used components; at the population level, natality and mortality; at the community level, diversity; and at the ecosystem level, biogeochemical cycling. Most studies focused on structural responses of individual organisms. These components are relatively sensitive and are easy and inexpensive to measure; however, linkages of these parameters to adverse impacts on populations, communities, or ecosystems are lacking. Measurements of effects of air pollution at the higher levels of organization are confounded by natural variability, long response times, climatic variation, pathogens, and other factors. In addition, the lack of replication and of true control areas creates severe problems for design of monitoring programs and testing of hypotheses concerning effects.     

Economically optimal nitrogen rate reduces soil residual nitrate

Post-harvest residual soil NO(3)-N (RSN) is susceptible to transfer to water resources. Practices that minimize RSN levels can reduce N loss to the environment. Our objectives were (i) to determine if the RSN after corn (Zea mays L.) harvest can be reduced if N fertilizer is applied at the economically optimal N rate (EONR) as compared to current producer practices in the midwestern USA and (ii) to compare RSN levels for N fertilizer rates below, at, and above the EONR. Six experiments were conducted in producer fields in three major soil areas (Mississippi Delta alluvial, deep loess, claypan) in Missouri over 2 yr. Predominant soil great groups were Albaqualfs, Argiudolls, Haplaquolls, and Fluvaquents. At four transects in each field, six treatment N rates from 0 to 280 kg N ha(-1) were applied, the EONR was determined, and the RSN was measured to a 0.9-m depth from five treatment plots. The EONR at sampling sites varied from 49 to 228 kg N ha(-1) depending on site and year. Estimated average RSN at the EONR was 33 kg N ha(-1) in the 0.9-m profile. This was at least 12 kg N ha(-1) lower than RSN at the producers' N rates. The RSN increased with increasing Delta EONR (total N applied - EONR). This relationship was best modeled by a plateau-linear function, with a low RSN plateau at N rates well below the EONR. A linear increase in RSN began anywhere from 65 kg N ha(-1) below the EONR to 20 kg N ha(-1) above the EONR at the three sites with good data resolution near the EONR. Applying N rates in excess of the EONR produced elevated RSN values in all six experiments. Our results suggest that applying the EONR will produce environmental benefits in an economically sound manner, and that continued attempts to develop methods for accurately predicting EONR are justified.     

CONJUNCTIVE SURFACE AND GROUND WATER MANAGEMENT IN THE JAKARTA REGION,INDONESIA1

ABSTRACT: This study investigates the degree of economic inefficiency of the current institutional arrangements for surface and ground water management in meeting urban water demand in the Jakarta region. A numerical model of integrated surface and ground water management is developed using GAMS (General Algebraic Modelling System) software. The model maximizes the net present value of social benefits from piped water and ground water consumption across all users over time from 1999 to 2025. Four policy scenarios are examined: the status quo, the social planner's solution, and two ground water pumping quota scenarios: an aggregate ground water pumping quota and a partial quota applied to commercial and industrial users. Three variations in each policy scenario are considered: investment in water infrastructure of the Jakarta water enterprise (PAM Jaya), water demand growth, and discount rates. The status quo, depending on the investment option, the growth of water demand, and the discount rate, results in a 7.4 to 47.8 percent loss in economic efficiency relative to the social planner's solution. The partial quota is the most feasible, applicable, and manageable scenario. The optimal investment option could increase the volume of piped water supply and reduce the cost of water production. The volume of water delivery could increase by up to 156 percent, but it implies only a 35 percent increase in the surface raw water demands above the current level. However, it does not significantly reduce cumulative ground water extraction over the time period considered.