Reducing the Risk of Accidental Death Due to Vehicle-Related Carbon Monoxide Poisoning

ABSTRACT

Emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) from motor vehicles cause several hundred accidental fatal poisonings annually in the United States. The circumstances that could lead to fatal poisonings in residential settings with motor vehicles as the source of CO were explored. The risk of death in a garage (volume = 90 m³) and a single-family dwelling (400 m³) was evaluated using a Monte Carlo simulation with varying CO emission rates and ventilation rates. Information on emission rates was obtained from a survey of motor vehicle exhaust gas composition under warm idle conditions in California, and information on ventilation rates was obtained from a summary of published measurements in the U.S. housing stock. The risk of death ranged from 16 to 21% for a 3-hr exposure in a garage to 0% for a 1-hr exposure in a house. Older vehicles were associated with a disproportionately high risk of death. Removing all pre-1975 vehicles from the fleet would reduce the risk of death by one-fourth to two-thirds, depending on the exposure scenario. Significant efforts have been made to control CO emissions from motor vehicles with the goal of reducing CO concentrations in outdoor air. Substantial public health benefit could also be obtained if vehicle control measures were designed to take account of acute CO poisonings explicitly.     

Models of total and presumed wildlife sources of fecal coliform bacteria in coastal ponds

Models that accurately predict fecal coliform bacteria (FCB) concentrations, one of the most widely used measures of estuarine water quality, are needed to improve land use decision-making. Rapidly occurring changes in coastal land uses and the influence on water quality increases the urgency of having improved decision tools. For this study, samples were collected monthly from six coastal ponds, two tidal creeks and four shallow water wells for up to 212 years. These data were used along with other measures of environmental conditions and land classes within each watershed to construct quantitative relationships between combinations of variables and both total and presumed wildlife sources of FCB. Linear regression, bootstrapping and generalized additive modeling that incorporates both linear and nonlinear terms were used. Results of repeated simultaneous sampling on the same tide stage of ponds and downstream estuarine creeks suggest that most FCB come from wildlife and that the ponds effectively remove these bacteria except immediately following heavy rainfall. Predictive models for concentrations of total and presumed wildlife bacteria are provided along with simple measures to estimate watershed boundaries. It is proposed that these tools can be used to minimize impacts on receiving water body quality. The models can be used to test alternative development approaches within coastal watersheds similar to that found in the southeastern USA coastal zone as well as to evaluate specific proposed landscape alterations.     

A model of mercury contamination in a woodland stream

A model for the accumulation of mercury in four compartments of woodland stream has been set up. The four components considered are sediments, detritus, invertebrates and fish. The model inputs are concentrations of dissolved monomethyl mercury and dissolved inorganic mercury (Hg²⁺) in the water. The model predicts that some reevaluation of current safe mercury concentrations in water may be needed in order to keep mercury concentrations in fish below current actions levels.     

Vegetation Mapping for Change Detection on an Arid-Zone River

A vegetation mapping system for change detection was tested at the Havasu National Wildlife Refuge (HNWR) on the Lower Colorado River. A low-cost, aerial photomosaic of the 4200 ha, study area was constructed utilizing an automated digital camera system, supplemented with oblique photographs to aid in determining species composition and plant heights. Ground-truth plots showed high accuracy in distinguishing native cottonwood (Populus fremontii) and willow (Salix gooddingii) trees from other vegetation on aerial photos. Marsh vegetation (mainly cattails, Typha domengensis) was also easily identified. However, shrubby terrestrial vegetation, consisting of saltcedar (Tamarix ramosissima), arrowweed (Pluchea sericea), and mesquite trees (Prosopis spp.), could not be accurately distinguished from each other and were combined into a single shrub layer on the final vegetation map. The final map took the form of a base, shrub and marsh layer, which was displayed as a Normalized Difference Vegetation Index map from a Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+) image to show vegetation intensity. Native willow and cottonwood trees were digitized manually on the photomosaic and overlain on the shrub layer in a GIS. By contrast to present, qualitative mapping systems used on the Lower Colorado River, this mapping system provides quantitative information that can be used for accurate change detection. However, better methods to distinguish between saltcedar, mesquite, and arrowweed are needed to map the shrub layer.     

Ecological Monitoring for Assessing the State of the Nearshore and Open Waters of the Great Lakes

The Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement stipulates that the Governments of Canada and the United States are responsible for restoring and maintaining the chemical, physical and biological integrity of the waters of the Great Lakes Basin Ecosystem. Due to varying mandates and areas of expertise, monitoring to assess progress towards this objective is conducted by a multitude of Canadian and U.S. federal and provincial/state agencies, in cooperation with academia and regional authorities. This paper highlights selected long-term monitoring programs and discusses a number of documented ecological changes that indicate the present state of the open and nearshore waters of the Great Lakes.     

Field validation of sound mitigation models and air pollutant emission testing in support of missile motor disposal activities

The U.S. Department of Defense approved activities conducted at the Utah Test and Training Range (UTTR) include both operational readiness test firing of intercontinental ballistic missile motors as well as the destruction of obsolete or otherwise unusable intercontinental ballistic missile motors through open burn/open detonation (OB/ OD). Within the Utah Division of Air Quality, these activities have been identified as having the potential to generate unacceptable noise levels, as well as significant amounts of hazardous air pollutants. Hill Air Force Base, UT, has completed a series of field tests at the UTTR in which sound-monitoring surveillance of OB/OD activities was conducted to validate the Sound Intensity Prediction System (SIPS) model. Using results generated by the SIPS model to support the decision to detonate, the UTTR successfully disposed of missile motors having an aggregate net explosive weight (NEW) of 56,500 lbs without generating adverse noise levels within populated areas. These results suggest that, under appropriate conditions, missile motors of even larger NEW may be detonated without exceeding regulatory noise limits. In conjunction with collecting noise monitoring data, air quality data was collected to support the development of air emission factors for both static missile motor firings and OB/OD activities. Through the installation of 15 ground-based air samplers, the generation of combustion fixed gases, hazardous air pollutants, and chlorides were monitored during the 56,500-lb NEW detonation event. Comparison of field measurements to predictions generated from the U.S. Navy's energetic combustion pollutant formation model, POLU4WN, indicated that, as the detonation fireball expanded from ground zero, organic compounds as well as carbon monoxide continued to oxidize as the hot gases reacted with ambient air. Hazardous air pollutant analysis of air samplers confirmed the presence of chloromethane, benzene, toluene, 1,2-propadiene, and 2-methyl-l-propene, whereas the absence of hydrogen chloride gas suggested that free chlorine is not generated during the combustion process.     

SUWANNEE RIVER LONG RANGE STREAMFLOW FORECASTS BASED ON SEASONAL CLIMATE PREDICTORS1

ABSTRACT: A study of the influence of climate variability on streamflow in the southeastern United States is presented. Using a methodology previously applied to watersheds in Australia and the United States, a long range streamflow forecast (0 to 9 months in advance) is developed. Persistence (i.e., the previous season's streamflow) and climate predictors of the previous season are used to forecast the following season's (winter and spring) streamflow of the Suwannee River located in northern Florida. The winter and spring streamflow is historically the most likely to have severe flood events due to large scale cyclonic (frontal) storms. Results of the analysis indicated that a strong El Nino‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal exists at various lead times to the winter and spring streamflow of the Suwannee River. These results are based on the high correlation values of two commonly used measurements of ENSO strength, the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) and Sea Surface Temperature Range 1. Using the relationships developed between climate and streamflow, a continuous exceedance probability forecast was developed for two Suwannee River stations. The forecast system provided an improved forecast for ENSO years. The ability to predict above normal (flood) or below normal (drought) years can provide communities the necessary lead time to protect life, property, sensitive wetlands, and endangered and threatened species.