Misuse of null hypothesis significance testing: would estimation of positive and negative predictive values improve certainty of chemical risk assessment?

Although generally misunderstood, the p value is the probability of the test results or more extreme results given H₀ is true: it is not the probability of H₀ being true given the results. To obtain directly useful insight about H₀, the positive predictive value (PPV) and the negative predictive value (NPV) may be useful extensions of null hypothesis significance testing (NHST). They provide information about the probability of statistically significant and non-significant test outcomes being true based on an a priori defined biologically meaningful effect size. The present study explores the utility of PPV and NPV in an ecotoxicological context by using the frequently applied Daphnia magna reproduction test (OECD guideline 211) and the chemical stressor lindane as a model system. The results indicate that especially the NPV deviates meaningfully between a test design strictly following the guideline and an experimental procedure controlling for α and β at the level of 0.05. Consequently, PPV and NPV may be useful supplements to NHST that inform the researcher about the level of confidence warranted by both statistically significant and non-significant test results. This approach also reinforces the value of considering α, β, and a biologically meaningful effect size a priori.     

Quantitative and qualitative characteristics of dissolved organic matter from eight dominant aquatic macrophytes in Lake Dianchi, China

The aim of this research was to determine and compare the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of dissolved organic matters (DOM) from eight aquatic macrophytes in a eutrophic lake. C, H, N, and P in ground dry leaves and C, N, and P in DOM of the species were determined, and C/N, C/P, C/H, DOC/C, TDN/N, TDP/P, DOC/TDN, and DOC/TDP were calculated. Chemical structures of the DOM were characterized by the use of multiple techniques including UV-visible, FT-IR, and ¹³C CP/MAS spectra. The results showed subtle differences in quantity and quality of DOM among species and life-forms. Except oriental pepper which had a C/H of 0.7, C/H of all the other species was 0.6. C/N and C/P of ground leaves was 10.5–17.3 and 79.4–225.3, respectively, which were greater in floating and submerged species than in the others. Parrot feather also had a small C/P (102.8). DOC/C, TDN/N, and TDP/P were 7.6–16.8, 5.5–22.6, and 22.9–45.6 %, respectively. Except C/N in emergent and riparian species, C/N in the other species and C/P in all the species were lower in their DOM than in the ground leaves. DOM of the macrophytes had a SUVA₂₅₄ value of 0.83–1.80. The FT-IR and ¹³C NMR spectra indicated that the DOM mainly contained polysaccharides and/or amino acids/proteins. Percent of carbohydrates in the DOM was 37.3–66.5 % and was highest in parrot feather (66.5 %) and crofton weed (61.5 %). DOM of water hyacinth, water lettuce, and sago pondweed may have the greatest content of proteins. Aromaticity of the DOM was from 6.9 % in water lettuce to 17.8 % in oriental pepper. DOM of the macrophytes was also different in polarity and percent of Ar–OH. Distinguished characteristics in quantity and quality of the macrophyte-derived DOM may induce unique environmental consequences in the lake systems.     

Low-disturbance manure incorporation effects on ammonia and nitrate loss

Low-disturbance manure application methods can provide the benefits of manure incorporation, including reducing ammonia (NH3) emissions, in production systems where tillage is not possible. However, incorporation can exacerbate nitrate (NO3?) leaching. We sought to assess the trade-offs in NH3 and NO3? losses caused by alternative manure application methods. Dairy slurry (2006-2007) and liquid swine manure (2008-2009) were applied to no-till corn by (i) shallow (<10 cm) disk injection, (ii) surface banding with soil aeration, (iii) broadcasting, and (iv) broadcasting with tillage incorporation. Ammonia emissions were monitored for 72 h after application using ventilated chambers and passive diffusion samplers, and NO3? leaching to 80 cm was monitored with buried column lysimeters. The greatest NH3 emissions occurred with broadcasting (35-63 kg NH3-N ha?), and the lowest emissions were from unamended soil (<1 kg NH-N ha?1). Injection decreased NH-N emissions by 91 to 99% compared with broadcasting and resulted in lower emissions than tillage incorporation 1 h after broadcasting. Ammonia-nitrogen emissions from banding manure with aeration were inconsistent between years, averaging 0 to 71% that of broadcasting. Annual NO3? leaching losses were small (<25 kg NO3-N ha?1) and similar between treatments, except for the first winter when NO3? leaching was fivefold greater with injection. Because NO3? leaching with injection was substantially lower over subsequent seasons, we hypothesize that the elevated losses during the first winter were through preferential flow paths inadvertently created during lysimeter installation. Overall, shallow disk injection yielded the lowest NH3 emissions without consistently increasing NO3? leaching, whereas manure banding with soil aeration conserved inconsistent amounts of N.     

Lidar quantification of bank erosion in Blue Earth County, Minnesota

Sediment and phosphorus (P) transport from the Minnesota River Basin to Lake Pepin on the upper Mississippi River has garnered much attention in recent years. However, there is lack of data on the extent of sediment and P contributions from riverbanks vis-à-vis uplands and ravines. Using two light detection and ranging (lidar) data sets taken in 2005 and 2009, a study was undertaken to quantify sediment and associated P losses from riverbanks in Blue Earth County, Minnesota. Volume change in river valleys as a result of bank erosion amounted to 1.71 million m over 4 yr. Volume change closely followed the trend: the Blue Earth River > the Minnesota River at the county's northern edge > the Le Sueur River > the Maple River > the Watonwan River > the Big Cobb River > Perch Creek > Little Cobb River. Using fine sediment content (silt + clay) and bulk density of 37 bank samples representing three parent materials, we estimate bank erosion contributions of 48 to 79% of the measured total suspended solids at the mouth of the Blue Earth and the Le Sueur rivers. Corresponding soluble P and total P contributions ranged from 0.13 to 0.20% and 40 to 49%, respectively. Although tall banks (>3 m high) accounted for 33% of the total length and 63% of the total area, they accounted for 75% of the volume change in river valleys. We conclude that multitemporal lidar data sets are useful in estimating bank erosion and associated P contributions over large scales, and for riverbanks that are not readily accessible for conventional surveying equipment.     

Evaluation of best management practice products in preventing discharge of metals: a laboratory evaluation

Heavy metal accumulation in soil poses serious environmental and health risks, as metals are carried with eroded soils. In this study, 17 different soil erosion and sediment control products were investigated for their effectiveness in controlling transport of particulate heavy metals (Cu, Zn, Pb, Cd). Among the treatments investigated, wood mulch and tackifiers were found to be the most effective in reducing total suspended solids (TSS) and total heavy metal losses. They reduced TSS to an undetectable level during short-term simulation tests. Paper mulch was the only treatment that had no significant reduction in both total metal loss and TSS. Fiber rolls, silt fences, and gravel bags were effective in reducing sediment loss. Although the netting/blanket treatments were not effective in reducing total metal discharge, they significantly reduced sediment loss compared with the control.     

Transport and retention of Cryptosporidium parvum oocysts in sandy soils

A series of miscible-displacement experiments was conducted to examine the retention and transport behavior of oocysts in natural porous media. Three soils and a model sand were used that differed in physical and geochemical properties. Transport behavior was examined under various treatment conditions to help evaluate retention mechanisms. Significant retention of oocysts was observed for all media despite the fact that conditions were unfavorable for physicochemical interactions with respect to DLVO theory. The magnitude of retention was not influenced significantly by alterations in solution chemistry (reduction in ionic strength) or soil surface properties (removal of soil organic matter and metal oxides). On the basis of the observed results, it appears that retention by secondary energy minima or geochemical microdomains was minimal for these systems. The porous media used for the experiments exhibited large magnitudes of surface roughness, and it is suggested that this surface roughness contributed significantly to oocyst retention.     

Identification of Swamp Deer (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Cervus duvauceli duvauceli</Emphasis> Cuvier) Potential Habitat in Jhilmil Jheel Conservation Reserve,Uttarakhand, India Using Multi-Criteria Analysis

The present study aims to identify the potential habitat for swamp deer (Cervus duvauceli duvauceli Cuvier) in Jhilmil Jheel Conservation Reserve in the Uttarakhand province of India using multi-criteria analysis. The study area represents one of the last remnant habitats of the flagship species, the swamp deer in Uttarakhand, which is considered as vulnerable. The study showed that only 6.08% of the study area (225 km²) was highly suitable to suitable for the swamp deer. An area of 135.52 km² (60.23%) turned out to be moderately suitable. Within the officially designated Conservation Reserve (area 37.84 km²), 10.91% (4.13 km²) area was found highly suitable to suitable, while 74.19% (28.07 km²) happens to be moderately suitable. Only 14 km² area, which was found as suitable habitat for swamp deer falls short of the space required by a population of 134 animals. The problem could be mitigated if the agricultural land (2.47 km²) adjacent to the Jhilmil Jheel is brought under the Reserve management. This would provide additional area to meet the fodder requirement. The study brings out a particularly grim situation with limited options for conservation and management of the swamp deer in the Indo-Gangetic plains. It also emphasizes the role of geospatial techniques in quick appraisal of habitat attributes and identification of potential sites for protected areas.     

Homegardens as a Multi-functional Land-Use Strategy in Sri Lanka with Focus on Carbon Sequestration

This paper explores the concept of homegardens and their potential functions as strategic elements in land-use planning, and adaptation and mitigation to climate change in Sri Lanka. The ancient and locally adapted agroforestry system of homegardens is presently estimated to occupy nearly 15 % of the land area in Sri Lanka and is described in the scientific literature to offer several ecosystem services to its users; such as climate regulation, protection against natural hazards, enhanced land productivity and biological diversity, increased crop diversity and food security for rural poor and hence reduced vulnerability to climate change. Our results, based on a limited sample size, indicate that the homegardens also store significant amount of carbon, with above ground biomass carbon stocks in dry zone homegardens (n = 8) ranging from 10 to 55 megagrams of carbon per hectare (Mg C ha⁻¹) with a mean value of 35 Mg C ha⁻¹, whereas carbon stocks in wet zone homegardens (n = 4) range from 48 to 145 Mg C ha⁻¹ with a mean value of 87 Mg C ha⁻¹. This implies that homegardens may contain a significant fraction of the total above ground biomass carbon stock in the terrestrial system in Sri Lanka, and from our estimates its share has increased from almost one-sixth in 1992 to nearly one-fifth in 2010. In the light of current discussions on reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+), the concept of homegardens in Sri Lanka provides interesting aspects to the debate and future research in terms of forest definitions, setting reference levels, and general sustainability.     

Insights into the dissolution and the three-dimensional structure of insensitive munitions formulations

Two compounds, 2,4-dinitroanisole (DNAN) and 3-nitro-1,2,4-triazol-5-one (NTO) are the main ingredients in a suite of explosive formulations that are being, or soon will be, fielded at military training ranges. We aim to understand the dissolution characteristics of DNAN and NTO and three insensitive muntions (IM) formulations that contain them. This information is needed to accurately predict the environmental fate of IM constituents, some of which may be toxic to people and the environment. We used Raman spectroscopy to identify the different constituents in the IM formulations and micro computed tomography to image their three-dimensional structure. These are the first three-dimensional images of detonated explosive particles.