EVALUATION OF PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTIONS IN PRECIPITATION MODELS FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST1

ABSTRACT: Recent work has found that a one-parameter Weibull model of wet day precipitation amount based on the Weibull distribution provides a better fit to historical daily precipitation data for eastern U.S. sites than other one-parameter models. The general two-parameter Weibull distribution was compared in this study to other widely used distributions for describing the distribution of daily precipitation event sizes at 99 sites from the U.S. Pacific Northwest. Surprisingly little performance was sacrificed by reducing the two-parameter Weibull to a single-parameter distribution. Advantages of the single-parameter model included requiring only the mean wet day precipitation amount for calibration, invertibility for simulation purposes, and ease of analytical manipulation. The fit of the single-parameter Weibull to the 99 stations included in this study was significantly better than other single-parameter models tested, and performed as well as the widely endorsed, more cumbersome, two-parameter gamma model. Both the one-and two-parameter Weibull distributions are shown to have b-moments that are consistent with historical precipitation data, while the ratio of b-skew and b-variance in the gamma model is inconsistent with the historical recerd by this measure. In addition, it was found that the two-parameter gamma distribution was better fit using the method of moments estimators than maximum likelihood estimates. These findings suggested that the distribution in precipitation among sites in the Pacific Northwest with dramatically different settings are nearly identical if expressed in proportion to the mean site event size.     

Monitoring Sustainable Forest Management in Different Jurisdictions

The concept of sustainable forest management (SFM) requires forest resource managers to monitor and collect information pertaining to their environmental, economic and social impact. There are increasing expectations from a variety of publics (government, customers, and other stakeholders) that forests be demonstrably well-managed, creating incentives for forest managers to design credible systems for assessing their management performance. It is against this background that local, national and international approaches to regulating forest practices have been evolving. This article reviews the different dimensions of governance as they relate to monitoring and information reporting in the forest sector. Specifically, it discusses the changing role of sovereignty, the effects of globalization and the emergence of civil society stakeholders in forestry-related decision-making. Concepts such as sovereignty and globalization have important implications for monitoring forest practices and for defining SFM. Whether SFM standard creation and enforcement involves a sovereign, shared-sovereignty or civil society approach will affect the level and nature of SFM monitoring. As a result, we need to better consider the concept of monitoring appropriate to the scale and intensity of operations, how monitoring and information reporting standards differ between jurisdictions, and what this means for independently verifying SFM at an inter-jurisdictional level.     

Forced oscillations with damping proportional to velocity on a beta plane: the Southern Oscillation connection

An analogy is made between mechanical and electrical oscillating systems and an oscillating atmospheric system. The problem is to study the behaviour of an oscillator driven by zonal forcing of the annual cycle with damping on an earth beta plane. When the Coriolis parameter is constant the system oscillates in a simple linear manner with the forcing frequency. When the Coriolis parameter is allowed to vary as a function of its latitudinal position, the equations for horizontal motion become non-linear and their numerical solutions exhibit non-linear and sometimes chaotic properties. If the oscillator is initially forced with a west to east (positive) pressure gradient the motion is convergent and stable in character. If it is initially forced with an east to west (negative) pressure gradient the motion is divergent and can be sensitive dependent on the exact starting latitude. Regular periodicities develop for the former case but in the latter case peaks and troughs of apparent cycles are aperiodic, chaotic or blow up. A connection is drawn between the behaviour of such an oscillating dynamical system and the ENSO phenomenon. A paradigm for the latter's observed behaviour is suggested.     

Assessing and evaluating environmental impacts at proposed nuclear power plant sites

The applicability of decision analysis for assessing, evaluating, and reporting possible environmental impacts of proposed large-scale projects is illustrated. A study concerning the ecological impacts of constructing and operating nuclear power facilities in the Pacific Northwest is used as an example. Possible impacts are quantified for two objectives: minimizing adverse impacts on salmonids and minimizing biological disturbance. The results provide information about both the direct and indirect consequences of the impact. This approach explicitly addresses the multiple objective and uncertainty issues inherent in environmental problems. It also provides a mechanism for illuminating the value structure which is utilized in the evaluation process.     

Mapping hazard from urban non-point pollution: a screening model to support sustainable urban drainage planning

Non-point sources of pollution are difficult to identify and control, and are one of the main reasons that urban rivers fail to reach the water quality objectives set for them. Whilst sustainable drainage systems (SuDS) are available to help combat this diffuse pollution, they are mostly installed in areas of new urban development. However, SuDS must also be installed in existing built areas if diffuse loadings are to be reduced. Advice on where best to locate SuDS within existing built areas is limited, hence a semi-distributed stochastic GIS-model was developed to map small-area basin-wide loadings of 18 key stormwater pollutants. Load maps are combined with information on surface water quality objectives to permit mapping of diffuse pollution hazard to beneficial uses of receiving waters. The model thus aids SuDS planning and strategic management of urban diffuse pollution. The identification of diffuse emission 'hot spots' within a water quality objectives framework is consistent with the 'combined' (risk assessment) approach to pollution control advocated by the EU Water Framework Directive.     

Preliminary Studies on the Population Genetics of the Central Stoneroller (Campostoma anomalum) from the Great Miami River Basin, Ohio

Molecular approaches are particularly useful for measuring genetic diversity and were applied to samples of central stonerollers obtained from sites along tributaries to the Great Miami River in Ohio. We used Random Amplified Polymorphic DNA (RAPD) analysis to assess the level of genetic diversity within and among these populations. RAPD analysis generates genetic profiles that were used to develop indices of genetic similarity. The RAPD method provides a cost effective means of generating an arbitrary sample of anonymous loci across the genome and generate a virtually unlimited set of loci for use in genetic analysis in the absence of specific sequence information. These attributes make RAPDs well suited for use in evaluating the diversity and assessing the potential vulnerability to exposure of populations across multiple spatial scales. The results demonstrate that a significant amount of structuring exists among populations analyzed to date and that a trend exists towards genetic diversity being an inverse function of site distance from the main stem as well as a being directly related to stream order. This indicates that populations farthest from main conduits or in lower order streams, and thereby most isolated, may be the most vulnerable populations to stressor exposure. It is hoped that information pertaining to genetic diversity, when integrated with other metrics of resource condition, will aid in making scientifically grounded decisions on resource management that enhance the probability of population survival and preserve natural evolutionary processes.     

Legalizing markets and the consequences for poaching of wildlife species: the vicuña as a case study

Vicuña provide an excellent case study for examining the sustainable use of wildlife outside protected areas: the community-based conservation approach. Vicuña populations in the high Andes of Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Ecuador and Perú fell to a critically low level, but a Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) ban on trade in their fiber has seen numbers recover dramatically, and now live shearing of vicuña for a high-value international market is being promoted as a mechanism to secure both sustainable vicuña populations and local livelihoods. We used a dynamic optimization model to explore the consequences of legalizing markets, including the consequences for poaching which is critical in vicuña dynamics. Using parameters obtained from the literature and expert knowledge, we explored different scenarios for the Argentine region of Cieneguillas. Our results showed that the role of the international market is ambiguous; live shearing for an international market can provide the very best of outcomes for both vicuña and local people, with large herds generating high revenues. But an international market also creates a market for poached vicuña fiber; as a result, vicuña numbers risk once again falling to critically low levels, resulting also in minimal revenues from sale of fiber. The message for the international community is that if community-based conservation is not implemented carefully then its impact can easily be perverse.     

Status of Aquatic Bioassessment in U.S. EPA Region IX

U.S. EPA Region IX is supporting bioassessment programs in Arizona, California, Hawaii and Nevada using biocriteria program and Regional Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (R-EMAP) resources. These programs are designed to improve the state, tribal and regional ability to determine the status of water quality. Biocriteria program funds were used to coordinate with Arizona, California and Hawaii which resulted in these states establishing reference conditions and in developing biological indices. U.S. EPA Region IX has initiated R-EMAP projects in California and Nevada. These U.S. EPA Region IX sponsored programs have provided an opportunity to interact with the States and provide them with technical and management support. In Arizona, several projects are being conducted to develop the State's bioassessment program. These include the development of a rotational random monitoring program; a regional reference approach for macroinvertebrate bioassessments; ecoregion approach to testing and adoption of an alternate regional classification system; and development of warm-water and cold-water indices of biological integrity. The indices are projected to be used in the Arizona Department of Environmental Quality (ADEQ) 2000 water quality assessment report. In California, an Index of Biological Integrity (IBI) has been developed for the Russian River Watershed using resources from U.S. EPA's Non-point Source (NPS) Program grants. A regional IBI is under development for certain water bodies in the San Diego Regional Water Quality Control Board. Resources from the U.S. EPA Biocriteria program are being used to support the California Aquatic Bioassessment Workgroup (CABW) in conjunction with the California Department of Fish & Game (CDFG), and to support the Hawaii Department of Health (DoH) Bioassessment Program to refine biological metrics. In Nevada, R-EMAP resources are being used to create a baseline of aquatic information for the Humboldt River watershed. U.S. EPA Region IX is presently working with the Nevada Division of Environmental Protection (NDEP) to establish a Nevada Aquatic Bioassessment Workgroup. Future R-EMAP studies will occur in the Calleguas Creek watershed in Southern California, and in the Muddy and Virgin River watersheds in southern Nevada, and the Walker River watershed in eastern California and west-central Nevada.     

An empirical study of estimating vehicle emissions under cordon and distance based road user charging in Leeds, UK

This paper presents the impact of road user charging (RUC) on vehicle emissions through application of traffic assignment and pollutant emission models. It presents results of an analysis of five RUC schemes on vehicle emissions in Leeds, UK for 2005. The schemes were: a ￡3 inner ring road cordoncharge; a double cordon with a ￡2 inner ring road and a ￡1 outer ring road charge; and distance charges of 2, 10 and 20 p/km levied for travel within the outer cordon. Schemes were compared to a no charge option and results presented here. Emissions are significantly reduced within the inner cordon, whilst beyond the cordon, localised increases and decreases occur. The double cordon exhibits a similar but less marked pattern. Distance charging reduces city-wide emissions by 10% under a 2 p/km charge, 42–49% under a 10 p/km charge and 52–59% under a 20 p/km charge. The higher distance charges reduce emissions within the charge zone, and are also associated with elevated emissions outside the zone, but to a lesser extent than that observed for cordon charging.