ASSESSING THE THREAT TO LIFE FROM DAM FAILURE1

ABSTRACT: To facilitate decisions regarding the need for modification of potentially unsafe dams, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation developed procedures for assessing the threat to human lives posed by the failure of individual dams. The procedures provide a conceptual model of the variables influencing the loss of life from dam failure and a method for predicting loss of life based on the size of the population at risk from failure and the amount of warning time available for that population. The prediction equations are based on an analysis of 24 dam failures and major flash floods occurring since 1950. Adjustments to the predictions to reflect special local conditions are also discussed.     

Household size and composition and implications for housing need in Kumasi,Ghana: a research note

A simple method of calculating the scale of housing need for Kumasi, Ghana, uses two likely variations in household size distribution and an overcrowding threshold of 3 p.p.r., and a measure of preference. The two household size distributions take account both of trends and of changes which may occur if and when new housing is provided. At that time, released from the current constraints, household formation along traditional lines may again be possible. The preferred supply equates households’ perceived need to their ability to pay at current rents. The resulting range of rooms required is wide but even the lowest need is so far in excess of supply that conventional approaches are self‐evidently inadequate and greater client involvement must be encouraged.     

A risk model for predicting the effects of lake-side development on wildfowl populations

The lack of quantitative analysis and general scientific rigour in environmental impact assessment (EIA) is well documented. While reasons for this may include political and economic factors, the lack of high-level statistical knowledge and skills in environmental consultancies probably contributes to the problem, particularly with regard to ecological studies. This paper develops a simple model for wintering wildfowl populations that predicts different levels of risk from lake-side development. The aim was to create a model that could be used easily and quickly by consultants, is readily understandable for developers and various groups associated with the planning process, with explicit assumptions that can be criticised, and predictions that can be tested with post-development audits. The model is used in a case study. The basic parameters of the model are (i) average wildfowl abundance on lakes before development, (ii) maximum potential density of wildfowl across lakes (Kmax) before development, and (iii) reduction in lake area suitable for wildfowl after development. The model includes abundance-area relationships that are useful for highlighting the importance of particular lakes at a site. In the case study, abundance-area relationships focused attention on two lakes with thick charophyte beds which supported higher than expected numbers of pochard and coot given their size. As well as being robust (confidence limits are calculated), the model's predictions are quantitative and testable, making it possible to compare the predictions with on-going post-development monitoring of wildfowl population levels. The predictions rely on the effectiveness of path screening, and post-development monitoring can suggest where screening should be strengthened if the model's predictions are not met. Similarly, if other assumptions in the model are not met by the development, appropriate action can be implemented.     

Survey of land degradation in New South Wales,Australia

A survey of land degradation was undertaken in New South Wales, Australia during 1987–1988. The aims of the survey were to assess the location, extent, and severity of ten forms of degradation and to present the data in map and statistical form. Sample points were located on a regular grid. The method was designed so that data could be acquired from aerial photographs, expert local knowledge, and limited field checking. Individual statewide maps were prepared for each form of degradation. Map data were shown in pixel form. Sheet and rill erosion and soil structure decline were confined mostly to lands used for cropping. Gully erosion was commonly found across the state, while mass movement was confined to steeper lands. There were three severe areas of dryland salinity; irrigation salinity was mapped in parts of the southern irrigation lands. Induced soil acidity was severe in some cropping and pasture lands. Absence of tree regrowth was a noticeable feature of lands used for cropping. The survey enabled community awareness of the problems of land degradation to be increased, in addition to assisting regional land managers in resource allocation. The survey also provided the basis for the future location of sites that could be used to monitor the trends in the status of land degradation.     

Packaging waste and the polluter pays principle: a taxation solution

Packaging waste has become a focus for attention by policy‐makers in a number of countries. This article offers a simple policy measure — a packaging tax or levy — which serves the required aims of policy, namely: reducing waste at source; increasing the rate of recycling; and consistency with the polluter pays principle. The tax is illustrated in the context of beverage containers in the UK and Japan. The merits of the proposal are its simplicity and flexibility. The article suggests that the relevant environmental damages are captured by waste disposal costs and litter. Other life cycle impacts, such as emissions from energy use, could be included but only if there are not more efficient ways of regulating them.     

Derelict land: the case for a strategic approach

This paper examines the rationale underlying the ‘strategic approach’ to the prevention and reclamation of derelict land proposed in research recently published by the Department of the Environment. It outlines the main features and the processes involved in this approach and indicates the form and content of the documentation which might accompany its adoption. The paper focuses upon the tasks involved in the preparation of strategies for derelict land but the principles it examines will have wider application in other policy fields. It concludes with an examination of the practical problems which the adoption of a strategic approach may entail and the ways in which it would enhance the activities of the recently announced Urban Regeneration Agency for England.     

MTBE oxidation byproducts from the treatment of surface waters by ozonation and UV-ozonation

In recent years, there has been considerable concern over the release of methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE), a gasoline additive, into the aquifers used as potable water sources. MTBE readily dissolves in water and has entered the environment via gasoline spills and leaking storage tanks. In this paper, we investigate ozonation and UV-ozonation for treatment of MTBE in contaminated drinking water sources. We report the test protocol and results of using solid-phase microextraction (SPME) to determine the level of MTBE and its oxidation byproducts in samples drawn from laboratory-scale ozone and UV-ozone reactors being evaluated at a US EPA research facility. Analysis of a prepared MTBE standard indicated a detection limit on the order of 0.1 microgl(-1) with a repeatability of +/-0.4%. Results show that the overall rate of removal of MTBE via UV-ozonation in a relatively turbid surface water (15 ntu) is twice that of ozonation alone. In addition, GC-MS analysis of decomposition products showed that tert-butyl formate (TBF), methyl acetate, butene, acetone, and acetaldehyde were produced by both processes. TBF and butene reach similar maximum yields from the two processes, but are more efficiently degraded by UV-ozonation treatment. This indicates that these treatment processes also degrade these byproducts. In contrast, the remaining byproducts (methyl acetate, acetone, and acetaldehyde) are formed at similar levels during treatment, but are not degraded once formed. These byproducts may be resistant to hydrogen abstraction by hydroxyl radical.     

Use of Remote Sensing Techniques to Determine the Effects of Grazing on Vegetation Cover and Dune Elevation at Assateague Island National Seashore: Impact of Horses

The effects of grazing by feral horses on vegetation and dune topography at Assateague Island National Seashore were investigated using color-infrared imagery, lidar surveys, and field measurements. Five pairs of fenced and unfenced plots (300 m²) established in 1993 on sand flats and small dunes with similar elevation, topography, and vegetation cover were used for this study. Color-infrared imagery from 1998 and field measurements from 2001 indicated that there was a significant difference in vegetation cover between the fenced and unfenced plot-pairs over the study period. Fenced plots contained a higher percentage of vegetation cover that was dominated by American beachgrass (Ammophila breviligulata). Lidar surveys from 1997, 1999, and 2000 showed that there were significant differences in elevation and topography between fenced and unfenced plot-pairs. Fenced plots were, on average, 0.63 m higher than unfenced plots, whereas unfenced plots had generally decreased in elevation after establishment in 1993. Results demonstrate that feral horse grazing has had a significant impact on dune formation and has contributed to the erosion of dunes at Assateague Island. The findings suggest that unless the size of the feral horse population is reduced, grazing will continue to foster unnaturally high rates of dune erosion into the future. In order to maintain the natural processes that historically occurred on barrier islands, much larger fenced exclosures would be required to prevent horse grazing.     

Advanced solid-state carbon-13 nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopic studies of sewage sludge organic matter: detection of organic "domains"

Two novel solid-state 13C nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopic techniques, PSRE (proton spin relaxation editing) and RESTORE [Restoration of Spectra via T(CH) and T(1rho)H (T One Rho H) Editing], were used to provide detailed chemical characterization of the organic matter from six Australian sewage sludges. These methods were used to probe the submicrometer heterogeneity of sludge organic matter, and identify and quantify spatially distinct components. Analysis of the T1H relaxation behavior of the sludges indicated that each sludge contained two types of organic domains. Carbon-13 PSRE NMR subspectra were generated to determine the chemical nature of these domains. The rapidly relaxing component of each sludge was rich in protein and alkyl carbon, and was identified as dead bacterial material. The slowly relaxing component of each sludge was rich in carbohydrate and lignin structures, and was identified as partly degraded plant material. The bacterial domains were shown, using the RESTORE technique, to also have characteristically rapid T(1rho)H relaxation rates. This rapid T(1rho)H relaxation was identified as the main cause of underrepresentation of these domains in standard 13C cross polarization (CP) NMR spectra of sludges. The heterogeneous nature of sewage sludge organic matter has implications for land application of sewage sludge, since the two components are likely to have different capacities for sorbing organic and inorganic toxicants present in sewage sludge, and will decompose at different rates.