Post-development Auditing of EIA Predictive Techniques: A Spatial Analytical Approach

Despite widespread recognition that post-development auditing has the potential to provide feedback which could improve future Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA), there remains a paucity of research which relates specifically to the evaluation of EIA predictive techniques, with even less progress in the development of audit methodologies. This paper describes a spatial analytical approach to post-development auditing that focuses upon the identification and analysis of the residual errors between the impacts predicted at a site using a particular predictive method and the actual impacts found to occur through monitoring. For three case studies, relevant impact predictions are tested (to determine the residual errors) and statistical models of the errors are developed in order to explore factors which may explain the performance of the predictive technique. The paper then considers the broader lessons and limitations that can be drawn out from the research both for auditing and EIA practice, including feedback on predictive techniques, the potential role of scoping decisions in generating errors in impact prediction, and the implications of uncertainty over future baseline conditions for auditing and impact prediction/interpretation.     

Women executives and off-the-job misconduct by high-profile employees: A study of National Football League team organizations

The risk of off-the-job misconduct by high-profile employees is a serious concern of top management in professional sport organizations, media and entertainment companies, and public-facing entities in the government and education sectors. Yet there is little research on how to prevent or mitigate this form of misconduct in organizations. Utilizing upper echelons theory and the literature on demographic composition, we examine the relationship between the gender composition of executives of team organizations in a men's professional sport league and subsequent misconduct by players on those teams. Specifically, we employed multilevel and logistic regression analyses to unique data on U.S. National Football League team organizations, and we found that firms with a critical mass of women executives experienced fewer player arrests. No support was found for executive power as a moderator of this relationship. We discuss the implications of our findings for the demographic composition literature. We also offer guidance for preventing and managing off-the-job misconduct by high-profile employees.     

Spatial and temporal drivers of zoonotic pathogen contamination of an agricultural watershed

In regions where animal agriculture is prominent, such as southern Alberta, higher rates of gastrointestinal illness have been reported when compared with nonagricultural regions. This difference in the rate of illness is thought to be a result of increased zoonotic pathogen exposure through environmental sources such as water. In this study, temporal and spatial factors associated with bacterial pathogen contamination of the Oldman River, which transverses this region, were analyzed using classification and regression tree analysis. Significantly higher levels of fecal indicators; more frequent isolations of Campylobacter spp., Escherichia coli O157:H7, and Salmonella enterica spp.; and higher rates of detection of pig-specific Bacteroides markers occurred at downstream sites than at upstream sites, suggesting additive stream inputs. Fecal indicator densities were also significantly higher when any one of these three bacterial pathogens was present and where there were higher total animal manure units; however, occasionally pathogens were present when fecal indicator levels were low or undetectable. Overall, Salmonella spp., Campylobacter spp., and E. coli O157:H7 presence was associated with season, animal manure units, and total rainfall on the day of sampling and 3 d in advance of sampling. Several of the environmental variables analyzed in this study appear to influence pathogen prevalence and therefore may be useful in predicting water quality and safety and in the improvement of watershed management practices in this and other agricultural regions.     

Navigating the Perfect Storm: Research Strategies for Socialecological Systems in a Rapidly Evolving World

The ‘Perfect Storm’ metaphor describes a combination of events that causes a surprising or dramatic impact. It lends an evolutionary perspective to how social-ecological interactions change. Thus, we argue that an improved understanding of how social-ecological systems have evolved up to the present is necessary for the modelling, understanding and anticipation of current and future social-ecological systems. Here we consider the implications of an evolutionary perspective for designing research approaches. One desirable approach is the creation of multi-decadal records produced by integrating palaeoenvironmental, instrument and documentary sources at multiple spatial scales. We also consider the potential for improved analytical and modelling approaches by developing system dynamical, cellular and agent-based models, observing complex behaviour in social-ecological systems against which to test systems dynamical theory, and drawing better lessons from history. Alongside these is the need to find more appropriate ways to communicate complex systems, risk and uncertainty to the public and to policy-makers.     

Comparison of the cytotoxic responses of Escherichia coli (E. coli) AMC 198 to different fullerene suspensions (nC60)

Fullerenes are set to be produced on an industrial scale in anticipation of their wide applications. This calls for research on their environmental and health impacts. This study investigates and compares the cell toxicity of different aqueous fullerene aggregates. Popular C₆₀ dispersal methods were used to prepare four types of nC₆₀ aggregates. These aggregates were tested against the indicator species Escherichia coli (E. coli) AMC 198. With aggregates of around 150 nm in diameter, the THF/nC₆₀ suspension was very toxic and gave rise to a half maximal effective concentration (EC₅₀) of 0.54 mg L⁻¹ in E. coli. By contrast, the Tol/nC₆₀ suspension exhibited a cytoprotective role while the Aqu-N₂/nC₆₀ and Aqu-O₂/nC₆₀ suspensions enhanced the metabolism of E. coli. Although some toxicants, such as THF and THF-peroxide, were introduced into the THF/nC₆₀ suspension during the dispersion, the toxicity of nC₆₀ itself cannot be neglected.     

Implications of differing input data sources and approaches upon forest carbon stock estimation

Site index is an important forest inventory attribute that relates productivity and growth expectation of forests over time. In forest inventory programs, site index is used in conjunction with other forest inventory attributes (i.e., height, age) for the estimation of stand volume. In turn, stand volumes are used to estimate biomass (and biomass components) and enable conversion to carbon. In this research, we explore the implications and consequences of different estimates of site index on carbon stock characterization for a 2,500-ha Douglas-fir-dominated landscape located on Eastern Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada. We compared site index estimates from an existing forest inventory to estimates generated from a combination of forest inventory and light detection and ranging (LIDAR)-derived attributes and then examined the resultant differences in biomass estimates generated from a carbon budget model (Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3)). Significant differences were found between the original and LIDAR-derived site indices for all species types and for the resulting 5-m site classes (p?<?0.001). The LIDAR-derived site class was greater than the original site class for 42% of stands; however, 77% of stands were within ±1 site class of the original class. Differences in biomass estimates between the model scenarios were significant for both total stand biomass and biomass per hectare (p?<?0.001); differences for Douglas-fir-dominated stands (representing 85% of all stands) were not significant (p?=?0.288). Overall, the relationship between the two biomass estimates was strong (R ²?=?0.92, p?<?0.001), suggesting that in certain circumstances, LIDAR may have a role to play in site index estimation and biomass mapping.     

Dispersion modeling to compare alternative technologies for odor remediation at swine facilities

The effectiveness of 18 alternative technologies for reducing odor dispersion at and beyond the boundary of swine facilities was assessed in conjunction with an initiative sponsored through agreements between the Attorney General of North Carolina and Smithfield Foods, Premium Standard Farms, and Frontline Farmers. The trajectory and spatial distribution of odor emitted at each facility were modeled at 200 and 400 m downwind from each site under two meteorological conditions (daytime and nighttime) using a Eulerian-Lagrangian model. To predict the dispersion of odor downwind, the geographical area containing the odorant sources at each facility was partitioned into 10-m2 grids on the basis of satellite photographs and architectural drawings. Relative odorant concentrations were assigned to each grid point on the basis of intensity measurements made by the trained odor panel at each facility using a 9-point rating scale. The results of the modeling indicated that odor did not extend significantly beyond 400 m downwind of any of the test sites during the daytime when the layer of air above the earth's surface is usually turbulent. However, modeling indicated that odor from all full-scale farms extended beyond 400 m onto neighboring property in the evenings when deep surface cooling through long-wave radiation to space produces a stable (nocturnal) boundary layer. The results also indicated that swine housing, independent of waste management type, plays a significant role in odor downwind, as do odor sources of moderate to moderately high intensity that emanate from a large surface area such as a lagoon. Human odor assessments were utilized for modeling rather than instrument measurements of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), hydrogen sulfide, ammonia, or particulates less than 10 microm in diameter (PM10) because these physical measurements obtained simultaneously with human panel ratings were not found to accurately predict human odor intensity in the field.     

Biomass‐based targets and the management of multispecies coral reef fisheries

The failure of fisheries management among multispecies coral reef fisheries is well documented and has dire implications for the 100 million people engaged in these small‐scale operations. Weak or missing management institutions, a lack of research capacity, and the complex nature of these ecosystems have heralded a call for ecosystem‐based management approaches. However, ecosystem‐based management of coral reef fisheries has proved challenging due to the multispecies nature of catches and the diversity of fish functional roles. We used data on fish communities collected from 233 individual sites in 9 western Indian Ocean countries to evaluate changes in the site's functional composition and associated life‐history characteristics along a large range of fish biomass. As biomass increased along this range, fish were larger and grew and matured more slowly while the abundance of scraping and predatory species increased. The greatest changes in functional composition occurred below relatively low standing stock biomass (<600 kg/ha); abundances of piscivores, apex predators, and scraping herbivores were low at very light levels of fishing. This suggests potential trade‐offs in ecosystem function and estimated yields for different management systems. Current fishing gear and area restrictions are not achieving conservation targets (proposed here as standing stock biomass of 1150 kg/ha) and result in losses of life history and ecological functions. Fish in reefs where destructive gears were restricted typically had very similar biomass and functions to young and low compliance closures. This indicates the potentially important role of fisheries restrictions in providing some gains in biomass and associated ecological functions when fully protected area enforcement potential is limited and likely to fail. Our results indicate that biomass alone can provide broad ecosystem‐based fisheries management targets that can be easily applied even where research capacity and information is limited. Of particular value, is our finding that current management tools may be used to reach key ecosystem‐based management targets, enabling ecosystem‐based management in many socioeconomic contexts.