Sensitivity to assumptions in models of generalist predation on a cyclic prey

Ecological theory predicts that generalist predators should damp or suppress long-term periodic fluctuations (cycles) in their prey populations and depress their average densities. However, the magnitude of these impacts is likely to vary depending on the availability of alternative prey species and the nature of ecological mechanisms driving the prey cycles. These multispecies effects can be modeled explicitly if parameterized functions relating prey consumption to prey abundance, and realistic population dynamical models for the prey, are available. These requirements are met by the interaction between the Hen Harrier (Circus cyaneus) and three of its prey species in the United Kingdom, the Meadow Pipit (Anthus pratensis), the field vole (Microtus agrestis), and the Red Grouse (Lagopus lagopus scoticus). We used this system to investigate how the availability of alternative prey and the way in which prey dynamics are modeled might affect the behavior of simple trophic networks. We generated cycles in one of the prey species (Red Grouse) in three different ways: through (1) the interaction between grouse density and macroparasites, (2) the interaction between grouse density and male grouse aggressiveness, and (3) a generic, delayed density-dependent mechanism. Our results confirm that generalist predation can damp or suppress grouse cycles, but only when the densities of alternative prey are low. They also demonstrate that diametrically opposite indirect effects between pairs of prey species can occur together in simple systems. In this case, pipits and grouse are apparent competitors, whereas voles and grouse are apparent facilitators. Finally, we found that the quantitative impacts of the predator on prey density differed among the three models of prey dynamics, and these differences were robust to uncertainty in parameter estimation and environmental stochasticity.     

Stable lead isotope profiles in smelter and general urban communities: a comparison of environmental and blood measures

High-precision lead isotope ratios and lead concentrations have been compared statistically and graphically in women of child-bearing age (n = 77) from two smelter communities and one general urban community to evaluate the relative contributions to blood lead of tissue lead stores and lead from the contemporaneous environment (soil, floor dust, indoor airborne dust, water, food). Blood lead (PbB) contents were generally low (e.g. <10 g dL^–1). Statistically significant isotopic differences in blood and environmental samples were observed between the three cities although isotopic differences in blood for individual subjects living in close proximity (200 m radius) was as large as the differences within a city. No single environmental measure dominated the biological isotope profile and in many cases the low levels of blood lead meant that their isotopic profiles could be easily perturbed by relatively small changes of environmental exposure. Apportioning of sources using lead isotopes is possibly not feasible, nor cost effective, when blood lead levels are <5 g dL^–1. Interpretations based on statistical analyses of city-wide data do not give the same conclusions as when the houses are considered individually. Aggregating data from multiple subjects in a study such as this obscures potentially useful information. Most of the measures employed in this study, and many other similar studies, are markers of only short-to-medium integration of lead exposure. Serial sampling of blood and longer sampling times, especially for household variables, should provide more meaningful information.     

A framework for understanding climate change impacts on coral reef social–ecological systems

Corals and coral-associated species are highly vulnerable to the emerging effects of global climate change. The widespread degradation of coral reefs, which will be accelerated by climate change, jeopardizes the goods and services that tropical nations derive from reef ecosystems. However, climate change impacts to reef social–ecological systems can also be bi-directional. For example, some climate impacts, such as storms and sea level rise, can directly impact societies, with repercussions for how they interact with the environment. This study identifies the multiple impact pathways within coral reef social–ecological systems arising from four key climatic drivers: increased sea surface temperature, severe tropical storms, sea level rise and ocean acidification. We develop a novel framework for investigating climate change impacts in social–ecological systems, which helps to highlight the diverse impacts that must be considered in order to develop a more complete understanding of the impacts of climate change, as well as developing appropriate management actions to mitigate climate change impacts on coral reef and people.     

Heavy metals in potable groundwater of mining-affected river catchments,northwestern Romania

Groundwater, accessed using wells and municipal springs, represents the major source of potable water for the human population outside of major urban areas in northwestern Romania, a region with a long history of metal mining and metallurgy. The magnitude and spatial distribution of metal contamination in private-supply groundwater was investigated in four mining-affected river catchments in Maramureş and Satu Mare Counties through the collection of 144 groundwater samples. Bedrock geology, pH and Eh were found to be important controls on the solubility of metals in groundwater. Peak metal concentrations were found to occur in the Lapuş catchment, where metal levels exceed Dutch target and intervention values in up to 49% and 14% of samples, respectively. A 700 m wide corridor in the Lapuş catchment on either side of the main river channel was identified in which peak Cd (31 μg l⁻¹), Cu (50 μg l⁻¹), Pb (50 μg l⁻¹) and Zn (3,000 μg l⁻¹) concentrations were found to occur. Given the generally similar bedrock geologies, lower metal levels in other catchments are believed to reflect differences in the magnitude of metal loading to the local environment from both metal mining and other industrial and municipal sources. Sampling of groundwater in northwestern Romania has indicated areas of potential concern for human health, where heavy metal concentrations exceed accepted environmental quality guidelines. The presence of elevated metal levels in groundwater also has implications for the implementation of the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) and achieving ‘good’ status for groundwater in this part of the Danube River Basin District (RBD).     

Attitudes towards relocation following Hurricane Sandy: should we stay or should we go?

This study explores the dilemma of whether to rebuild or relocate from the areas devastated by Hurricane Sandy in 2012. Since disasters represent the discernible manifestation of other complex coastal hazards, they offer a window of opportunity to engage residents in the dialogue on relocation as sometimes the most effective risk reduction strategy. The following research evaluates attitudes towards relocation and willingness to consider buyout among 46 surveyed households located in highly‐affected communities five months after Sandy. It also gauges perceptions of coastal risks and recovery concerns as drivers of relocation, the level of support for different adaptation strategies, and preferences related to the relocation process itself on how and where to relocate and with what type of assistance. Responses indicate that, even though residents prefer structural solutions to address coastal hazards, they are not fully opposed to the possibility of relocation mostly for personal health and safety reasons.     

Semi-volatile and particulate emissions from the combustion of alternative diesel fuels

Motor vehicle emissions are a major anthropogenic source of air pollution and contribute to the deterioration of urban air quality. In this paper, we report results of a laboratory investigation of particle formation from four different alternative diesel fuels, namely, compressed natural gas (CNG), dimethyl ether (DME), biodiesel, and diesel, under fuel-rich conditions in the temperature range of 800-1200 degrees C at pressures of approximately 24 atm. A single pulse shock tube was used to simulate compression ignition (CI) combustion conditions. Gaseous fuels (CNG and DME) were exposed premixed in air while liquid fuels (diesel and biodiesel) were injected using a high-pressure liquid injector. The results of surface analysis using a scanning electron microscope showed that the particles formed from combustion of all four of the above-mentioned fuels had a mean diameter less than 0.1 microm. From results of gravimetric analysis and fuel injection size it was found that under the test conditions described above the relative particulate yields from CNG, DME, biodiesel, and diesel were 0.30%. 0.026%, 0.52%, and 0.51%, respectively. Chemical analysis of particles showed that DME combustion particles had the highest soluble organic fraction (SOF) at 71%, followed by biodiesel (66%), CNG (38%) and diesel (20%). This illustrates that in case of both gaseous and liquid fuels, oxygenated fuels have a higher SOF than non-oxygenated fuels.     

Optimising the preparation of activated carbon from digested sewage sludge and coconut husk.

Preparation of activated carbon from sewage sludge is a promising way to dispose of sewage sludge as well as to produce a low-cost adsorbent for pollutant removal. This research work aimed to optimise the condition for activated carbon preparation from anaerobically digested sewage sludge with the additive coconut husk. The sewage sludge sample was mixed with the additive coconut husk. The preparation condition variables investigated involved the concentration of the ZnCl2 solutions, heating temperature, dwell time and heating rate in pyrolysis and the mixing ratio of coconut husk to sewage sludge. Surface area, pore size distribution, aqueous phenol adsorption capacity and the production yield of the final products were determined and compared. Experimental results revealed that low concentrations of ZnCl2 solution tended to improve the microporosity of the final product. Heating temperature had a considerable impact on the surface area, pore size distribution and phenol adsorption capacity of the final products, whereas dwell time and heating rate performed comparatively insignificantly. The effect of increasing the mixing ratio of coconut husk to sewage sludge was principally to increase the microporosity of the final products. The activated carbon with the highest BET surface area was produced with the activation of 5 M ZnCl2 solution and, thereafter, pyrolysis at a heating temperature of 500 degrees C for 2 h with a heating rate of 10 degrees C/min. The mixing ratio of 1:4 in terms of coconut husk to sewage sludge based on their dried weights was found to be most cost effective.     

SHOULD DAMS BE MODIFIED FOR THE PROBABLE MAXIMUM FLOOD?1

ABSTRACT: The probable maximum flood (PMF) currently serves as the design standard for many U.S. dams. Floods used for design have increased and currently thousands of dams in the U.S. would be overtopped and possibly fail using the latest calculated PMF at each dam site. Some researchers have suggested that modifying dams to accommodate the PMF could be wasteful. Objections to using the PMF for dam modification include: (1) larger spillway capacity may increase annual downstream flood losses, (2) benefit‐cost ratios may be low, (3) construction accidents associated with dam modification may cause fatalities, and (4) the dollar amount spent to save lives by making dams safer is often very high. Based on these objections, a procedure is presented for evaluating the effectiveness of a proposed dam modification. A change in spillway design policy is recommended. Accepting the status quo at a dam that cannot accommodate the PMF may be the best course of action.     

Lessons from Integrating Fishers of Arapaima in Small-Scale Fisheries Management at the Mamirauá Reserve,Amazon

Fishers and small-scale fisheries worldwide have been marginalized historically. Now it is clear that integrating fishers in management processes is key to resource conservation, but it is less clear how to do it. Here, based on a literature review and new information, we present and analyze a case in which the participation of fishers in the management process was crucial in recovering an overexploited small-scale fishery for the pirarucu (Arapaima spp.) in the Amazon Basin, Brazil. In 8 years of experimental management, from 1999 to 2006, the population of pirarucu increased 9-fold (from about 2200 to 20,650 individuals), harvest quotas increased 10-fold (from 120 to 1249 individuals), and fishers’ participation in the management process increased and they benefited from increased monetary returns. Additionally, the number of communities conducting the management scheme increased from 4 in 1999 to 108 in 2006, following the demands of fishers and regional government agencies. Based on our analysis, we suggest that the participation of fishers in the management of other small-scale fisheries in the world can be improved by focusing on (1) applying the knowledge and skills of fishers in resource monitoring and management, (2) bridging knowledge systems among all involved stakeholders, (3) collaborating with fishers that are interested in, and capable of conducting, resource conservation schemes, and (4) conducting management under conditions of uncertainty.