ASSESSING THE THREAT TO LIFE FROM DAM FAILURE1

ABSTRACT: To facilitate decisions regarding the need for modification of potentially unsafe dams, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation developed procedures for assessing the threat to human lives posed by the failure of individual dams. The procedures provide a conceptual model of the variables influencing the loss of life from dam failure and a method for predicting loss of life based on the size of the population at risk from failure and the amount of warning time available for that population. The prediction equations are based on an analysis of 24 dam failures and major flash floods occurring since 1950. Adjustments to the predictions to reflect special local conditions are also discussed.     

Relating meteorological variables and trends in motor vehicle emissions to monthly urban carbon monoxide concentrations

A model which quantifies the relationship between the monthly time series for CO emissions, the monthly time series in ambient CO concentration, and meteorologically driven dispersion was developed. Fifteen cities representing a wide range of geographical and climatic conditions were selected. An eight-year time series (1984–1991 inclusive) of monthly averaged data were examined in each city. A new method of handling missing ambient concentration values which is designed to calculate city-wide average concentrations that follow the trend seen at individual monitor sites is presented. This method is general and can be used in other applications involving missing data. The model uses emissions estimates along with two meteorological variables (wind speed and mixing height) to estimate monthly averages of ambient air pollution concentrations. The model is shown to have a wide range of applicability; it works equally well for a wide range of cities that have very different temporal CO distributions. The model is suited for assessing long-term trends in ambient air pollutants and can also be used for estimating seasonal variations in concentration, estimation of trends in emissions, and for filling in gaps in the ambient concentration record.     

Prenatal diagnosis of a new syndrome: Holoprosencephaly with hypokinesia

Markedly decreased fetal activity (akinesia/hypokinesia) is usually readily apparent to experienced mothers, and frequently this concern leads to attempts at prenatal diagnosis. We report prenatal diagnosis of two fetuses with congenital contractures, markedly decreased fetal movement, and microcephaly due to severe holoprosencephaly. Such familial recurrence to phenotypically normal parents suggests a newly recognized autosomal recessive or X-linked syndrome that is readily detectable by prenatal ultrasonography.     

Resilience of epilithic algal assemblages in atmospherically and experimentally acidified boreal lakes

Algal assemblages can be highly responsive to environmental changes in recovering acidified lakes. We compared epilithic algal assemblages in boreal lakes during chemical recovery from atmospheric (Killarney Park, Ontario) and experimental (Lake 302S, Experimental Lakes Area, Ontario) acidification to assess the impact of spatial and temporal scale of severe acidification on taxonomic resilience (i.e. recovery rate). Resilience was measured as the distance traveled by lakes in ordination space during pH recovery based on canonical correspondence analysis. Resilience was relatively negligible in the Killarney lakes, suggesting that eight years of experimental acidification in Lake 302S had less impact on biological recovery than did decades of regional acidification. Increases in dissolved organic carbon, dissolved inorganic carbon, and calcium best explained temporal variance of epilithic species abundances in the recovering acidified lakes. In Lake 302S, contrasting trajectories of taxonomic resilience and resistance, i.e. displacement from reference conditions following a perturbation, indicated that ecological factors affecting epilithon differed at corresponding pH levels during recovery and acidification. Our findings reveal that modeling of ecosystem recovery from severe acidification must account for the spatial and temporal scale of the perturbation, and biological delay responses that result in differences between recovery and acidification trajectories.     

Residues of organochlorine pesticides in Alabama soils

A survey was made of 36 Alabama agricultural soils to assess residues of formerly used organochlorine pesticides. Compounds determined comprised alpha- and gamma-hexachlorocyclohexane, heptachlor, heptachlor-exo-epoxide, trans- and cis-chlordane, trans-nonachlor, dieldrin, toxaphene, DDT and DDE. Concentrations varied by several orders of magnitude among farms and appeared to be log-normally distributed. Highest concentrations (ng g(-1) dry soil, arithmetic means) were found for toxaphene (285+/-390) and DDTs (p,p'-DDE, 22.7+/-21.4; p,p'-DDT, 24.6+/-30.5; o,p'-DDT, 4.00+/-5.86; p,p'-DDD, 2.40+/-2.41) which were once heavily used in the southern USA. Pesticide residues were not proportional to soil organic carbon content indicating that residue concentrations were a reflection of pesticide application history and dissipation rates rather than air-soil equilibrium. Mean ratios of DDT/DDE in six regions of the state ranged from 0.39 to 1.5, and compound ratios for chlordanes and toxaphene were different from those in the technical mixtures.     

Contribution of vehicle emissions from an attached garage to residential indoor air pollution levels

The infiltration of vehicle emissions into a house from the attached garage was studied for 16 homes of differing designs using the same extensively characterized vehicle at each home. Before the in-home measurement program, the cold-start and hot-start tailpipe emissions and hot-soak evaporative emissions from a 1993 Buick Regal were measured using standard vehicle emissions measurement methods. The emissions were chemically characterized for methane, nonmethane hydrocarbons (NMHC), and carbonyl compounds. The in-home measurements occurred over two winter seasons (1997-1998 and 1998-1999) in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada. Samples of indoor air and garage atmosphere were characterized for carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, methane, NMHC, and carbonyl compounds. During the second year, real-time measurements of carbon, carbon dioxide, and total hydrocarbons were made to determine when and for how long the emissions plume infiltrates the house. Chemical mass balance modeling results using 31 NMHC species suggest that between 9 and 71% of the concentrations measured in the house during the hot-soak test and between 13 and 85% of the concentrations measured in the house during the cold-start test could be attributed to vehicle emissions infiltrating from the garage. In contrast, increases in carbonyl compound concentrations caused by the vehicle were difficult to detect above the already significant levels found in the houses.     

Effects of skin and hydraulic fractures on SVE wells

Soil vapor extraction (SVE) systems are intended to cause substantial volumes of air to flow through the subsurface with the purpose of removing volatile contaminants. The effectiveness of SVE can be influenced by any effect that changes the specific gas capacity (discharge as a function of vacuum) of a well. Skins of low permeability material enveloping a well bore are widely recognized to affect the performance of wells used to recover water, natural gas, or petroleum, and skin can also significantly diminish the performance of an SVE well. Skins a few mm thick consisting of material whose gas phase permeability is 0.01 of the formation can reduce the specific gas capacity of an SVE well by factors of 2 to 10 or more. Hydraulic fractures created in the vicinities of shallow wells commonly resemble sand-filled layers shaped like flat-lying disks or gently dipping saucers. The contrast between the gas-phase permeability of the sand in the fracture and that of the formation is particularly important, with significant effects requiring the ratio to be greater than approximately 50. Shallow hydraulic fractures filled with several tenths of m3 of sand in formations that are several orders of magnitude less permeable than that of the enveloping formation should increase specific gas capacity by factors of 10 or more. Field tests of the effects of hydraulic fractures on the performance of SVE were conducted by creating four wells intersecting fractures and a suite of control wells created using conventional methods in silty saprolite. Specific gas capacities ranged over more than an order of magnitude for 10 wells completed within a small area (2 m2) and at the same depth. Specific capacities correlate to the drilling method that was used to create the bore for the well: lowest values occurred in wells drilled with a machine auger, slightly better results were obtained using a Shelby tube, and the best results were obtained from conventional wells bored with a hand auger. Skin factors determined for wells created with a machine auger could be explained by a layer 1 cm thick that has 0.007 times the permeability of the enveloping material, which could readily have been created during the drilling procedure. Specific capacities of wells intersecting hydraulic fractures were 5 to 100 times more than those of conventional wells. The large difference in performance appears to be due in part to the beneficial effects of the fracture, and in part to the detrimental effects of well skin.     

Appraisal of visual assessments of habitat complexity and benthic composition on coral reefs

Visual assessments of topographic habitat structure and benthos on coral reefs were appraised using quantitative data collected from 16 replicate surveys within each of 21 sites on Seychelles reefs. Results from visual assessments of reef benthos were similar to those obtained using techniques frequently used to assess benthic complexity and composition. Visual estimates of habitat topography were correlated with rugosity, reef height and holes of 10–70 cm diameter, whilst visual estimates of benthic composition were very similar to those obtained from line intercept transects. Visual estimates of topography correlated strongly with species richness of fish communities and explained 42% of the variation in these data. The relationship between visual estimates of topography and species richness is strongest with fish 10–30 cm total length (TL), abundance of fish within this size category also correlating positively with topographic visual assessments. Visual techniques are prone to observer bias, however with regular training they can be used to quickly provide a reliable and effective means of assessing habitat complexity and benthos on coral reefs.