Incremental cost-effectiveness of incorporating oestriol evaluation in down syndrome screening programmes

As screening for Down syndrome becomes increasingly sophisticated, it is important to evaluate the newer technologies in terms of their cost-effectiveness. One recent addition to Down syndrome screening programmes is maternal serum unconjugated oestriol (uE₃), especially when used in conjunction with maternal serum α-fetoprotein and human chorionic gonadotropin. Using assumptions used in a California proposal to justify an expanded screening programme for Down syndrome, we calculated both the average and the incremental cost-effectiveness of adding uE₃. Using the base case assumptions, including an $8 fee for the uE₃, the incremental cost-effectiveness of adding uE₃ to the proposed California programme is $119 100 per case detected, a value that compares favourably with other Down syndrome screening programmes. The sensitivity analysis supports this conclusion over a wide range of assumptions. However, because of the uncertainty with some key data, it is still too early to fully support the inclusion of uE₃ in Down syndrome screening programmes.     

Red legs and golden gasters: Batesian mimicry in australian ants

 There are numerous reports of invertebrates that are visual mimics of ants, but no formal reports of mimicry of an ant, by an ant. Two endemic Australian ants, Myrmecia fulvipes and Camponotus bendigensis are remarkably similar in colour and size; both are generally black but have red legs and golden gasters. The density and hue of the pubescence of each ant's gaster are relatively uncommon in ants, but are very rare when combined with the black forebody and red legs. The ants are similarly sized but are smaller than other species closely related to M. fulvipes. The range of C. bendigensis lies entirely within that of M. fulvipes, and both species excavate ground nests in open woodland. Finally, workers of both species are crepuscular and forage solitarily. These data suggest that the relatively benign formicine C. bendigensis is a Batesian mimic of the formidable myrmeciine M. fulvipes. Received: 9 August 1999 / Accepted in revised form: 22 December 1999     

Predatory spider mimics acquire colony-specific cuticular hydrocarbons from their ant model prey

The integrity of social insect colonies is maintained by members recognising and responding to the chemical cues present on the cuticle of any intruder. Nevertheless, myrmecophiles use chemical mimicry to gain access to these nests, and their mimetic signals may be acquired through biosynthesis or through contact with the hosts or their nest material. The cuticular hydrocarbon profile of the myrmecophilous salticid spider Cosmophasis bitaeniata closely resembles that of its host ant Oecophylla smaragdina. Here, we show that the chemical resemblance of the spider does not arise through physical contact with the adult ants, but instead the spider acquires the cuticular hydrocarbons by eating the ant larvae. More significantly, we show that the variation in the cuticular hydrocarbon profiles of the spider depends upon the colony of origin of the ant larvae prey, rather than the parentage of the spider.     

1998年厄尔尼诺后珊瑚礁的侵蚀与恢复:印度洋查戈斯礁群

在印度洋中部查戈斯礁群的大多数珊瑚死亡之后3年,对30m水深以浅珊瑚的侵蚀和恢复情况进行了研究.北部环礁15m水深以浅、中部和南部环礁＞35m处的珊瑚差不多全部死亡.由于密集珊瑚丛的损失,一些礁体"表面"下降了1 5m.珊瑚的生物侵蚀情况严重,减少了三维礁体"结构"并形成松散的碎石.幼年珊瑚数量众多,尽管大部分是在侵蚀的或不稳定的基底上,并且稳定种较少.在15m的深度,礁体间鱼类丰度和多样性仍旧较高;依赖于珊瑚生存的物种减少,而一些食草动物和食碎屑动物则增加.一个新的海面温度(SST)数据集表明,平均SST自1950年以来升高了0.65℃.造成查戈斯珊瑚礁死亡的临界SST是29.9℃.     

Adverse outcome in pregnancy following amniotic fluid isolation of Ureaplasma urealyticum

Infections in pregnancy with Ureaplasma urealyticum have been associated with a wide range of adverse outcomes, such as early abortion, stillbirth, prematurity, and neonatal morbidity and mortality. Causality has been difficult to demonstrate secondary to the high prevalence of asymptomatic lower genital tract (LGT) colonization and culture data from inaccessible or potentially contaminated sites. Between 1985 and 1989, 2461 second-trimester genetic amniocenteses were evaluated at the cytogenetics section of the Children's Hospital Medical Center of Akron. All were cultured for the genital mycoplasmas: Mycoplasma hominis and Ureaplasma urealyticum. A total of nine patients were positive, all for Ureaplasma urealyticum, with one patient excluded because of subsequent therapeutic abortion. In addition, complete follow-up data, such as indication for amniocentesis, serum alpha-fetoprotein levels, gestational age at parturition, and out- come of pregnancy, were available on 86 Ureaplasma-negative (U –) patients during an approximate 2-year span within the time-frame of the study. This was in part due to physician response to a questionnaire sent after amniocentesis. Of the eight positive cultures, 100 per cent were associated with an adverse outcome, defined as fetal loss or premature delivery. This was significant compared with the U–group (p<0.001) with a more than eight times greater risk of adverse outcome. Six (75 per cent) resulted in spontaneous miscarriage within 4 weeks of amniocentesis and at less than 21 weeks' gestation. Two (25 per cent) delivered prematurely, with one (12.5 per cent) neonatal death at 24+ weeks. Histological examination of all eight placentae and the seven fetuses revealed a 100 per cent incidence of chorioamnionitis and pneumonia, respectively. In addition, in four of the five cases (80 per cent), cultures were positive for Ureaplasma urealyticum in pure culture from either placenta, fetal lung, or both tissues. The remaining case (20 per cent) was negative for aerobes, anaerobes, and mycoplasmas. The study demonstrates a significant association and supports a causal relationship between isolation of Ureaplasma from mid-trimester amniotic fluid with fetal wastage and premature birth.     

Food caching in orb-web spiders (Araneae: Araneoidea)

Caching or storing surplus prey may reduce the risk of starvation during periods of food deprivation. While this behaviour occurs in a variety of birds and mammals, it is infrequent among invertebrates. However, golden orb-web spiders, Nephila edulis, incorporate a prey cache in their relatively permanent web, which they feed on during periods of food shortage. Heavier spiders significantly reduced weight loss if they were able to access a cache, but lost weight if the cache was removed. The presence or absence of stored prey had no effect on the weight loss of lighter spiders. Furthermore, N. edulis always attacked new prey, irrespective of the number of unprocessed prey in the web. In contrast, females of Argiope keyserlingi, who build a new web every day and do not cache prey, attacked fewer new prey items if some had already been caught. Thus, a necessary preadaptation to the evolution of prey caching in orb-web spiders may be a durable or permanent web, such as that constructed by Nephila.     

Early amniocentesis at 11–14 weeks' gestation for the diagnosis of fetal chromosomal abnormality—a clinical evaluation

Early arnniocentesis between 11 and 14 weeks' gestation was offered to 110 women at risk of a chromosomally abnormal fetus due to maternal age. Four were found to be unsuitable for the procedure, and 106 early amniocenteses were performed. In 102 cases, clear amniotic fluid was obtained with a single tap. There were two dry taps and two bloodstained tapis; sampling was repeated in three of these cases before 15 weeks. In the fourth case, placental biopsy was performed at 16 weeks. Thus, we were able to obtain a satisfactory sample in all but three cases(2.8 percent). Karyotyping of cells harvested from the early amniotic fluid samples was successful in all the 105 cases. Cell culture from the initial samples revealed a normal karyotype in 99 cases, two balanced translocations, two tetraploid karyotypes, and two cases of pseudomosaicism. Of the 105 pregnancies successfully sampled, there have been two losses to date (1–8 per cent). Two further patients presented with premature rupture of membranes, both pregnancies having successful outcomes. Sixty-two babies have delivered to date, with four congenital anomalies. There were no respiratory problems. Twenty-nine pregnancies are continuing without known complications, and details are not yet available on the remaining 12. The results indicate that early arnniocentesis may replace the traditional test at 15–17 weeks.     

Determinants of parental decisions to abort for chromosome abnormalities

Parental decisions concerning the continuation of pregnancy following prenatal detection of abnormal chromosomes were evaluated for 80 patients whose diagnosis and prenatal counselling were performed in our centre. Twenty-two anomalies were diagnosed by chorionic villus sampling (CVS) and 58 by amniocentesis. The severity of the chromosome anomaly and associated ultrasound findings in the first vs. second trimester were correlated with patients' decisions. No difference was found in the likelihood of parental decisions to interrupt or continue a pregnancy between CVS and amniocentesis for either the‘severe’ or the‘questionable’ group of chromosome anomalies. Ninety-three per cent of patients with severe prognosis and 27 per cent with questionable prognosis opted for pregnancy termination (p <0·0001). The association of ultrasound anomalies and termination was highly significant (p< 0·001). The severity of the chromosome anomaly, and, to a lesser extent, the visualization of anomalies on ultrasound were the major determinants of parental decisions to terminate the pregnancy. The diagnosis of an anomaly in the first trimester was no more likely ito lead to a termination of pregnancy than in the second trimester.     

A framework to assess regional environmental impacts of dedicated energy crop production

Numerous studies have evaluated air quality and greenhouse gas mitigation benefits of biomass energy systems, but the potential environmental impacts associated with large-scale changes in land-use patterns needed to produce energy crops have not been quantified. This paper presents a framework to assess the potential soil, water, and biodiversity impacts that may result from the large-scale production of dedicated energy crops. The framework incorporates producer economic decision models with environmental models to assess changes in land use patterns and to quantify the consequent environmental impacts. Economic and policy issues that will affect decisions to produce energy crops are discussed. The framework is used to evaluate erosion and chemical runoff in two Tennessee regions. The analysis shows that production of dedicated energy crops in place of conventional crops will significantly reduce erosion and chemical runoff.