Comparison of stack measurement data from R&D facilities to regulatory criteria: A case study from PNNL

Chemical emissions from research and development (R&D) activities are difficult to estimate because of the large number of chemicals used and the potential for continual changes in processes. In this case study, stack measurements taken from R&D facilities at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) were examined, including extreme worst-case emissions estimates and alternate analyses using a Monte Carlo method that takes into account the full distribution of sampling results. The objective of this study was to develop techniques to estimate emissions from stack measurement data that take into account a high degree of variability in the actual emissions. The results from these analyses were then compared to emissions estimated from chemical inventories. Results showed that downwind ambient air concentrations calculated from the stack measurement data were below acceptable source impact levels (ASILs) for almost all compounds, even under extreme worst-case analyses. However, for compounds with averaging periods of a year, the unrealistic but simplifying extreme worst-case analysis often resulted in calculated emissions that were above the lower level regulatory criteria used to determine modeling requirements or to define trivial releases. Compounds with 24-hr averaging periods were nearly all several orders of magnitude below all, including the trivial release, criteria. The alternate analysis supplied a more realistic basis of comparison and an ability to explore effects under different operational modes.

Implications:

Air emissions from research operations are difficult to estimate because of the changing nature of research processes and the small quantity and wide variety of chemicals used. Stack measurements can be used to verify compliance with applicable regulatory criteria. This study shows that while extreme worst-case assumptions can be used for a relatively simple initial comparison, methods that take into account the full range of measurement data are needed to provide a more realistic estimate of emissions for comparison to regulatory criteria, particularly those criteria that define trivial levels of environmental concern.     

Models,Assumptions, and Stakeholders: Planning for Water Supply Variability in the Colorado River Basin1

Abstract: Declining reservoir storage has raised the specter of the first water shortage on the Lower Colorado River since the completion of Glen Canyon and Hoover Dams. This focusing event spurred modeling efforts to frame alternatives for managing the reservoir system during prolonged droughts. This paper addresses the management challenges that arise when using modeling tools to manage water scarcity under variable hydroclimatology, shifting use patterns, and institutional complexity. Assumptions specified in modeling simulations are an integral feature of public processes. The policymaking and management implications of assumptions are examined by analyzing four interacting sources of physical and institutional uncertainty: inflow (runoff), depletion (water use), operating rules, and initial reservoir conditions. A review of planning documents and model reports generated during two recent processes to plan for surplus and shortage in the Colorado River demonstrates that modeling tools become useful to stakeholders by clarifying the impacts of modeling assumptions at several temporal and spatial scales. A high reservoir storage‐to‐runoff ratio elevates the importance of assumptions regarding initial reservoir conditions over the three‐year outlook used to assess the likelihood of reaching surplus and shortage triggers. An ensemble of initial condition predictions can provide more robust initial conditions estimates. This paper concludes that water managers require model outputs that encompass a full range of future potential outcomes, including best and worst cases. Further research into methods of representing and communicating about hydrologic and institutional uncertainty in model outputs will help water managers and other stakeholders to assess tradeoffs when planning for water supply variability.     

Modelling Replicated Weed Growth Data using Spatially-varying Growth Curves

Weed growth in agricultural fields constitutes a major deterrent to the growth of crops, often resulting in low productivity and huge losses for the farmers. Therefore, proper understanding of patterns in weed growth is vital to agricultural research. Recent advances in Geographical Information Systems (GIS) now allow geocoding of agricultural data, which enable more sophisticated spatial analysis. Our current application concerns the development of statistical models for conducting spatial analysis of growth patterns in weeds. Our data comes from an experiment conducted in Waseca, Minnesota, that recorded growth of the weed Setariaspp. We capture the spatial variation in Setaria spp. growth using spatially-varying growth curves. An added challenge is that these designs are spatially replicated, with each plot being a lattice of sub-plots. Therefore, spatial variation may exist at different resolutions – a macro level variation between the plots and micro level variation between the sub-plots nested within each plot. We develop a Bayesian hierarchical framework for this setting. Flexible classes of models result which are fitted using simulation-based methods.     

ESTIMATING EVAPORATION FROM UTAH'S GREAT SALT LAKE USING THERMAL INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY1

ABSTRACT: Water surface temperatures can be obtained from satellite thermal remote sensing. Landsat and other satellites sense emitted thermal infrared radiation on a regular basis over much of the earth's surface. Evaporation is accomplished by the net transport of mass from the water surface to the atmosphere. The evaporative transfer predominantly determines the water surface temperature. Hence, there should be good correlations between evaporation and surface temperatures. Previous investigations on Utah Lake with satellite-derived temperatures and pan- and model-derived evaporation values have produced good correlations. However, more study was required with additional satellite data and evaporation measurements for saltwater conditions. The applicability of this method for estimating evaporation on Utah's Great Salt Lake was of particular interest at this time because of the unprecedented rise of this terminal lake. Satellite thermal data and evaporation data from four different years were obtained for the Great Salt Lake and the surrounding region. More than 350 correlation and linear regression analyses were performed on the temperature and evaporation data. The lake salt concentrations were also factored into the analyses in several different ways. The correlation results were generally very good and a methodology for using satellite-derived water surface temperatures along with salt concentrations was developed to estimate evaporation.     

A distributed approach to accounting for carbon in wood products

With an evolving political environment of commitments to limit emissions of greenhouse gases, and of markets to trade in emissions permits, there is growing scientific, political, and economic need to accurately evaluate carbon (C) stocks and flows—especially those related to human activities. One component of the global carbon cycle that has been contentious is the stock of carbon that is physically held in harvested wood products. The carbon stored in wood products has been sometimes overlooked, but the amount of carbon contained in wood products is not trivial, it is increasing with time, and it is significant to some Parties. This paper is concerned with accurate treatment of harvested wood products in inventories of CO₂ emissions to the atmosphere. The methodologies outlined demonstrate a flexible way to expand current methods beyond the assumption of a simple, first-order decay to include the use of more accurate and detailed data while retaining the simplicity of simple formulas. The paper demonstrates that a more accurate representation of decay time can have significant economic implications in a system where emissions are taxed or emissions permits are traded. The method can be easily applied using only data on annual production of wood products and two parameters to characterize their expected lifetime. These methods are not specific to wood products but can be applied to long-lived, carbon-containing products from sources other than wood, e.g. long-lived petrochemical products. A single unifying approach that is both simple and flexible has the potential to be both more accurate in its results, more efficient in its implementation, and economically important to some Parties.     

Household evacuation characteristics in American Samoa during the 2009 Samoa Islands tsunami

Tsunamis represent significant threats to human life and development in coastal communities. This quantitative study examines the influence of household characteristics on evacuation actions taken by 211 respondents in American Samoa who were at their homes during the 29 September 2009 M_w 8.1 Samoa Islands earthquake and tsunami disaster. Multiple logistic regression analysis of survey data was used to examine the association between evacuation and various household factors. Findings show that increases in distance to shoreline were associated with a slightly decreased likelihood of evacuation, whereas households reporting higher income had an increased probability of evacuation. The response in American Samoa was an effective one, with only 34 fatalities in a tsunami that reached shore in as little as 15 minutes. Consequently, future research should implement more qualitative study designs to identify event and cultural specific determinants of household evacuation behaviour to local tsunamis.     

Carbon management and biodiversity

International efforts to mitigate human-caused changes in the Earth's climate are considering a system of incentives (debits and credits) that would encourage specific changes in land use that can help to reduce the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. The two primary land-based activities that would help to minimize atmospheric carbon dioxide are carbon storage in the terrestrial biosphere and the efficient substitution of biomass fuels and bio-based products for fossil fuels and energy-intensive products. These two activities have very different land requirements and different implications for the preservation of biodiversity and the maintenance of other ecosystem services. Carbon sequestration in living forests can be pursued on lands with low productivity, i.e. on lands that are least suitable for agriculture or intensive forestry, and are compatible with the preservation of biodiversity over large areas. In contrast, intensive harvest-and-use systems for biomass fuels and products generally need more productive land to be economically viable. Intensive harvest-and-use systems may compete with agriculture or they may shift intensive land uses onto the less productive lands that currently harbor most of the Earth's biodiversity. Win-win solutions for carbon dioxide control and biodiversity are possible, but careful evaluation and planning are needed to avoid practices that reduce biodiversity with little net decrease in atmospheric carbon dioxide. Planning is more complex on a politically subdivided Earth where issues of local interest, national sovereignty, and equity come into play.     

137Cs and excess 210Pb deposition patterns in estuarine and marine sediment in the central region of the Great Barrier Reef Lagoon, north-eastern Australia

This paper focuses on the distribution of 137Cs and 210Pb(xs) in 51 estuarine and marine sediment cores collected between the Upstart Bay and Rockingham Bay in the Great Barrier Reef Lagoon, north-eastern Australia. Historical records of 210Pb(xs) and 137Cs atmospheric deposition and present day terrestrial inventories in north-eastern Australia are presented. 210Pb(xs) and 137Cs fluxes measured on suspended sediments in the Burdekin River are considered to be a source of recent inputs of these nuclides to the nearshore region of this part of the Great Barrier Reef. Direct correlations between sediment nuclide inventories, maximum detectable depths, and sediment mass accumulation rates (MARs), calculated using both 137Cs and 210Pb(xs), are explored. In relation to inventories of 210Pb(xs), 60% of atmospheric fallout 137Cs appears to be missing from the sediments. The reasons for these differences in two tracers, primarily of atmospheric origin, are discussed in terms of the geochemical properties of these two nuclides. Evidence is presented to support the hypothesis that the 137Cs distribution in these cores can be a useful independent tracer which provides confirmation of MARs calculated from the decay of 210Pb(xs).     

CLIMATE SCIENCE AND DROUGHT PLANNING: THE ARIZONA EXPERIENCE1

ABSTRACT: In response to recent severe drought conditions throughout the state, Arizona recently developed its first drought plan. The Governor's Drought Task Force focused on limiting the economic and social impacts of future droughts through enhanced adaptation and mitigation efforts. The plan was designed to maximize the use of new, scientific breakthroughs in climate monitoring and prediction and in vulnerability assessment. The long term objective of the monitoring system is to allow for evaluation of conditions in multiple sectors and at multiple scales. Stakeholder engagement and decision support are key objectives in reducing Arizona's vulnerability in light of the potential for severe, sustained drought. The drivers of drought conditions in Arizona include the El Nino‐Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.