Forecasting Air Pollution Potential: A Synoptic Climatological Approach

ABSTRACT

This paper describes the development and application of an air pollution potential (APP) forecast model based on a synoptic climatological approach in a heavily industrialized area in Durban, South Africa. The aim of the forecasting procedure, based on a system of orange, red, and all-clear alerts, was to give industry advance warning of periods of poor atmospheric dispersion so that it could take action to reduce emissions. The key meteorological parameter in accurately identifying the commencement of an APP episode was found to be negative surface pressure tendency. Wind direction was the most useful parameter in estimating the end point of an APP episode. The model was very successful in identifying periods of elevated SO₂, but there is a need for further refinement in forecasting the end point of an episode.     

Particulate Emissions from Construction Activities

Abstract

Although it has long been recognized that road and building construction activity constitutes an important source of particulate matter (PM) emissions throughout the United States, until recently only limited research has been directed to its characterization. This paper presents the results of PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 (particles ≤10 μm and ≤2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter, respectively) emission factor development from the onsite testing of component operations at actual construction sites during the period 1998 –2001. Much of the testing effort was directed at earthmoving operations with scrapers, because earthmoving is the most important contributor of PM emissions across the construction industry. Other sources tested were truck loading and dumping of crushed rock and mud and dirt carryout from construction site access points onto adjacent public paved roads. Also tested were the effects of watering for control of scraper travel routes and the use of paved and graveled aprons at construction site access points for reducing mud and dirt carryout. The PM₁₀ emissions from earthmoving were found to be up to an order of magnitude greater than predicted by AP-42 emission factors drawn from other industries. As expected, the observed PM_2.5:PM₁₀ emission factor ratios reflected the relative importance of the vehicle exhaust and the resuspended dust components of each type of construction activity. An unexpected finding was that PM_2.5 emissions from mud and dirt carryout were much less than anticipated. Finally, the control efficiency of watering of scraper travel routes was found to closely follow a bilinear moisture model.     

Parts-per-trillion LC-MS(Q) analysis of herbicides and transformation products in surface water

The goal of this study was to develop a robust method of analyzing surface water samples for S-triazine herbicides, chloroacetanilide herbicides, and their transformation products (TPs) using solid-phase extraction (SPE) followed by liquid chromatograph-mass spectrometry (LC-MS) with electrospray ionization (ESI) by in-source collision-induced dissociation (ISCID) capability of an orthogonal electrospray ionization probe on a single quadrupole LC-MS system. The method developed here met the goals of the study and yielded estimated method detection limits (EMDLs) averaging 0.3 ± 0.1 ng L(-1) for S-triazines and their TPs and 0.7 ± 0.4 ng L(-1) for chloroacetanilides and TPs. Spiked filtered river water yielded SPE recoveries ranging from 94.2 % ± 4.8 % for S-triazines and TPs after eliminating three compounds with less that 65 % recovery from analysis and 95.9 % ± 19 % for chloroacetanilides and their TPs. The method was field-tested with filtered water samples collected from four sites over a four-month period. Detectible values of S-triazines and TPs ranged from 0.3 to 1540 ng L(-1) with a mean of 79.3 and a median of 19.4 ng L(-1). Detectible values for chloroacetanilides and TPs ranged from 0.31 to 3780 ng L(-1) with a mean of 252 and a median of 25.6 ng L(-1). An additional goal was to determine if the method was useful for microbial degradation studies using native bacterial communities. The bacteria transformed atrazine (2-chloro-4-ethylamino-6-isopropylamino-S-triazine) solely into 2-hydroxy atrazine (2-hydroxy-4-ethylamino-6-isopropylamino-S-triazine) with concentrations of 78.4, 63.3 and 32.5 ng L(-1) after 12 days of incubation compared with 6.3 and 7.1 ng L(-1) for control dark and control sunlight respectively.     

Modeling transit bus fuel consumption on the basis of cycle properties

A method exists to predict heavy-duty vehicle fuel economy and emissions over an "unseen" cycle or during unseen on-road activity on the basis of fuel consumption and emissions data from measured chassis dynamometer test cycles and properties (statistical parameters) of those cycles. No regression is required for the method, which relies solely on the linear association of vehicle performance with cycle properties. This method has been advanced and examined using previously published heavy-duty truck data gathered using the West Virginia University heavy-duty chassis dynamometer with the trucks exercised over limited test cycles. In this study, data were available from a Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority emission testing program conducted in 2006. Chassis dynamometer data from two conventional diesel buses, two compressed natural gas buses, and one hybrid diesel bus were evaluated using an expanded driving cycle set of 16 or 17 different driving cycles. Cycle properties and vehicle fuel consumption measurements from three baseline cycles were selected to generate a linear model and then to predict unseen fuel consumption over the remaining 13 or 14 cycles. Average velocity, average positive acceleration, and number of stops per distance were found to be the desired cycle properties for use in the model. The methodology allowed for the prediction of fuel consumption with an average error of 8.5% from vehicles operating on a diverse set of chassis dynamometer cycles on the basis of relatively few experimental measurements. It was found that the data used for prediction should be acquired from a set that must include an idle cycle along with a relatively slow transient cycle and a relatively high speed cycle. The method was also applied to oxides of nitrogen prediction and was found to have less predictive capability than for fuel consumption with an average error of 20.4%.     

Think globally,act locally: neighbourhood pollution and the future of the earth

Each year governments and industry around the globe spend billions of dollars in search of treatments and cures for diseases that shorten lives, which often means gadgets, implants, radiation and pills. These “cures”, do not get to the root of the problem. Perhaps it is time for us to adjust our thinking to be more proactive instead of reactive in public health. Perhaps we need to consider confronting environmental pollution of air, soil and water at a local level. As the Physicians for Social Responsibility point out, we should be “preventing what we cannot cure”. One such preventive measure is ensuring that our communities, including our poor inner-city neighbourhoods, enjoy a clean environment. We challenge local and national policy-makers to respond to the global call and to take action to address environmental toxins; to take local action to ameliorate the pollution of the air, water and soil in so many of our nation’s neighbourhoods. A person’s neighbourhood, and the proximity of dangerous environmental contaminants within it, is a powerful predictor of how long s/he will live. While situations like the poisoning of the water in Flint, Michigan have gotten some attention, they are generally treated as the exception rather than a reflection of real environmental hazards that exist in the west. Moreover we wonder why more endemic issues of neighbourhood environmental contamination that shorten human lives are not a priority for local action or that it is not linked to disproportionate production of greenhouse gases that cause climate change/warming/chaos.     

Occurrence and fate of pesticides in four contrasting agricultural settings in the United States

Occurrence and fate of 45 pesticides and 40 pesticide degradates were investigated in four contrasting agricultural settings--in Maryland, Nebraska, California, and Washington. Primary crops included corn at all sites, soybeans in Maryland, orchards in California and Washington, and vineyards in Washington. Pesticides and pesticide degradates detected in water samples from all four areas were predominantly from two classes of herbicides--triazines and chloroacetanilides; insecticides and fungicides were not present in the shallow ground water. In most samples, pesticide degradates greatly exceeded the concentrations of parent pesticide. In samples from Nebraska, the parent pesticide atrazine [6-chloro-N-ethyl-N'-(1-methylethyl)-1,3,5-triazine-2,4-diamine] was about the same concentration as the degradate, but in samples from Maryland and California atrazine concentrations were substantially smaller than its degradate. Simazine [6-chloro-N,N'-diethyl-1,3,5-triazine-2,4-diamine], the second most detected triazine, was detected in ground water from Maryland, California, and Washington. Metolachlor [2-chloro-N-(2-ethyl-6-methylphenyl)-N-(2-methoxy-1-methylethyl)acetamide] rarely was detected without its degradates, and when they were detected in the same sample metolachlor always had smaller concentrations. The Root-Zone Water-Quality Model was used to examine the occurrence and fate of metolachlor at the Maryland site. Simulations accurately predicted which metolachlor degradate would be predominant in the unsaturated zone. In analyses of relations among redox indicators and pesticide variance, apparent age, concentrations of dissolved oxygen, and excess nitrogen gas (from denitrification) were important indicators of the presence and concentration of pesticides in these ground water systems.     

Instrument Choice When Regulators and Firms Bargain

We compare outcomes with an emissions tax and an emissions standard when a firm and regulator engage in cooperative bargaining over the stringency of the regulation. Bargaining is motivated by giving the firm a choice of abatement technologies. If the firm's preferred technology differs from the regulator's, the first-best outcome is not an equilibrium of the traditional noncooperative game in which the regulator is a Stackelberg leader. The regulator may therefore choose to offer the firm a more lenient regulation if it agrees to switch technologies. We find that the resulting bargaining outcomes differ for a tax and a standard even though information is symmetric, and we identify conditions under which each instrument yields lower social costs.     

Development of a new risk-based framework to guide investment in water quality monitoring

An innovative framework for optimising investments in water quality monitoring has been developed for use by water and environmental agencies. By utilising historical data, investigating the accuracy of monitoring methods and considering the risk tolerance of the management agency, this new methodology calculates optimum water quality monitoring frequencies for individual water bodies. Such information can be applied to water quality constituents of concern in both engineered and natural water bodies and will guide the investment of monitoring resources. Here we present both the development of the framework itself and a proof of concept by applying it to the occurrence of hazardous cyanobacterial blooms in freshwater lakes. This application to existing data demonstrates the robustness of the approach and the capacity of the framework to optimise the allocation of both monitoring and mitigation resources. When applied to cyanobacterial blooms in the Swan Coastal Plain of Western Australia, we determined that optimising the monitoring regime at individual lakes could greatly alter the overall monitoring schedule for the region, rendering it more risk averse without increasing the amount of monitoring resources required. For water resources with high-density temporal data related to constituents of concern, a similar reduction in risk may be observed by applying the framework.     

An Ecoregional Context for Forest Management on National Wildlife Refuges of the Upper Midwest,USA

To facilitate forest planning and management on National Wildlife Refuges, we synthesized multiple data sources to describe land ownership patterns, land cover, landscape pattern, and changes in forest composition for four ecoregions and their associated refuges of the Upper Midwest. We related observed patterns to ecological processes important for forest conservation and restoration, with specific attention to refuge patterns of importance for forest landbirds of conservation priority. The large amount of public land within the ecoregions (31–80%) suggests that opportunities exist for coarse and meso-scale approaches to conserving and restoring ecological processes affecting the refuges, particularly historical fire regimes. Forests dominate both ecoregions and refuges, but refuge forest patches are generally larger and more aggregated than in associated ecoregions. Broadleaf taxa have increased in dominance in the ecoregions and displaced fire-dependent taxa such as pine (Pinus spp.) and other coniferous species; these changes in forest composition have likely also affected refuge forests. Despite compositional changes, larger forest patches on refuges suggests that they may provide better habitat for area-sensitive forest landbirds of mature, compositionally diverse forests than surrounding lands if management continues to promote increased patch size. We reason that although fine-scale research and monitoring for species of conservation priority is important, broad scale (ecoregional) assessments provide crucial context for effective forest and wildlife management in protected areas.