Assessing the global zoo response to the amphibian crisis through 20‐year trends in captive collections

Global amphibian declines are one of the biggest challenges currently facing the conservation community, and captive breeding is one way to address this crisis. Using information from the International Species Information System zoo network, we examined trends in global zoo amphibian holdings across species, zoo region, and species geographical region of origin from 1994 to 2014. These trends were compared before and after the 2004 Global Amphibian Assessment to assess whether any changes occurred and whether zoo amphibian conservation effort had increased. The numbers of globally threatened species (GTS) and their proportional representation in global zoo holdings increased and this rate of increase was significantly greater after 2004. North American, European, and Oceanian GTS were best represented in zoos globally, and proportions of Oceanian GTS held increased the most since 2004. South American and Asian GTS had the lowest proportional representation in zoos. At a regional zoo level, European zoos held the lowest proportions of GTS, and this proportion did not increase after 2004. Since 1994, the number of species held in viable populations has increased, and these species are distributed among more institutions. However, as of 2014, zoos held 6.2% of globally threatened amphibians, a much smaller figure than for other vertebrate groups and one that falls considerably short of the number of species for which ex situ management may be desirable. Although the increased effort zoos have put into amphibian conservation over the past 20 years is encouraging, more focus is needed on ex situ conservation priority species. This includes building expertise and capacity in countries that hold them and tracking existing conservation efforts if the evidence‐based approach to amphibian conservation planning at a global level is to be further developed.     

Chemical plant risk assessment: Uncertainties and development needs

A brief review is given covering the development of major hazards risk assessment since the Flixborough disaster of 1974, with special reference to the introduction of new regulations. The importance of risk assessment in the management of major hazards is discussed by reference to the Canvey Island studies, and it is suggested that the problem of uncertainties in the estimation of risks by analysis has not been adequately treated. Examples are given to illustrate the magnitude of such uncertainties in the consequence modelling of accidental releases from a chemical plant. In addition to suggested development needs in risk analysis techniques, topics are suggested which call for development in the evaluation and management of risks.     

Modelling strategies for the management of the critically endangered Carpentarian rock-rat (Zyzomys palatalis) of northern Australia

The Carpentarian rock-rat (Zyzomys palatalis) is a critically endangered endemic rodent known from only four sandstone gorges in the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria, Northern Territory, Australia. These gorges harbour thickets of monsoon rainforest and broadleaf woodland, surrounded by a Eucalypt savanna matrix. The long-term persistence of Z. palatalis is threatened by altered fire regimes, grazing by feral animals and stock, weed intrusion, and the stochastic hazards associated with small, fragmented populations. To assess the relative importance of these threats and develop practical management options, a population and habitat simulation model was developed, based on the best existing data. Population viability was predicted to be highly sensitive to the frequency of hot, late dry-season fires. Progressive habitat degradation (due predominantly to intense late dry-season fires) is likely to substantially reduce population size and lead to the probable extinction of the species within the next 100 years. The most effective management strategy to counteract this threat would be regular, controlled, fuel reduction burns in the vegetation around the gorge entrances during the early dry season. Establishing a new population (through translocation of captive-bred individuals) would not appreciably reduce extinction risk, but could provide valuable additional data on the impact of threats, if conducted as an adaptive management experiment.     

Schooling decisions in guppies (Poecilia reticulata) are based on familiarity rather than kin recognition by phenotype matching

Evidence from a number of freshwater species indicates that fish prefer to school with familiar individuals. Do they also choose to associate with kin? Our experiment tested this idea using the Trinidadian guppy, Poecilia reticulata, a species whose reproductive biology favours the association of kin groups. Juveniles reared together were able to recognise one another on the basis of either visual or chemical cues, but showed no preference for schooling with unfamiliar kin. We therefore conclude that any naturally occurring kin groups in this species will occur as a result of familiarity rather than as a consequence of kin recognition based on phenotype matching.     

No net loss for people and biodiversity

Governments, businesses, and lenders worldwide are adopting an objective of no net loss (NNL) of biodiversity that is often partly achieved through biodiversity offsetting within a hierarchy of mitigation actions. Offsets aim to balance residual losses of biodiversity caused by development in one location with commensurate gains at another. Although ecological challenges to achieve NNL are debated, the associated gains and losses for local stakeholders have received less attention. International best practice calls for offsets to make people no worse off than before implementation of the project, but there is a lack of clarity concerning how to achieve this with regard to people's use and nonuse values for biodiversity, especially given the inevitable trade-offs when compensating biodiversity losses with gains elsewhere. This is particularly challenging for countries where poor people depend on natural resources. Badly planned offsets can exacerbate poverty, and development and offset impacts can vary across spatial-temporal scales and by location, gender, and livelihood. We conceptualize the no-worse-off principle in the context of NNL of biodiversity, by exploring for whom and how the principle can be achieved. Changes in the spatial and temporal distribution of biodiversity-related social impacts of a development and its associated offset can lead to social inequity and negatively impact people's well-being. The level of aggregation (regional, village, interest group, household, and individual) at which these social impacts are measured and balanced can again exacerbate inequity in a system. We propose that a determination that people are no worse off, and preferably better off, after a development and biodiversity offset project than they were before the project should be based on the perceptions of project-affected people (assessed at an appropriate level of aggregation); that their well-being associated with biodiversity losses and gains should be at least as good as it was before the project; and that this level of well-being should be maintained throughout the project life cycle. Employing this principle could help ensure people are no worse off as a result of interventions to achieve biodiversity NNL.     

Design of indicators for measuring product performance in the circular economy

Abstract

This paper explores measurement of product performance with respect to circular economy (CE) principles. Potential indicators are assessed with special attention given to questions such as: the variables that should be measured; how these variables should be assessed; and in which format they should be presented. The resulting considerations are used to develop a prototype whose design is informed through feedback from CE experts. The prototype uses a points-based questionnaire which converges into a simple final result with minimum and maximum limits. The selected approach is critically appraised, and its utility for decision-making discussed. The prototype is tested against a product in the chemical processing industry. The strengths include: ease of use; simplicity; speed; and an effective metaphor for the diffusion of CE principles. The limitations include: the opaque and potentially misleading nature of a single metric; superficial engagement with decision-making; and the reliance on context-specific assumptions. Future developments could include refining the approach to encourage deeper reflection, and generalisation of the approach to different industry sectors or sustainability frameworks.     

Predictions of U.K. regulated power station contributions to regional air pollution and deposition: a model comparison exercise

Contributions of the emissions from a U.K. regulated fossil-fuel power station to regional air pollution and deposition are estimated using four air quality modeling systems for the year 2003. The modeling systems vary in complexity and emphasis in the way they treat atmospheric and chemical processes, and include the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system in its versions 4.6 and 4.7, a nested modeling system that combines long- and short-range impacts (referred to as TRACK-ADMS [Trajectory Model with Atmospheric Chemical Kinetics-Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling System]), and the Fine Resolution Atmospheric Multi-pollutant Exchange (FRAME) model. An evaluation of the baseline calculations against U.K. monitoring network data is performed. The CMAQ modeling system version 4.6 data set is selected as the reference data set for the model footprint comparison. The annual mean air concentration and total deposition footprints are summarized for each modeling system. The footprints of the power station emissions can account for a significant fraction of the local impacts for some species (e.g., more than 50% for SO2 air concentration and non-sea-salt sulfur deposition close to the source) for 2003. The spatial correlation and the coefficient of variation of the root mean square error (CVRMSE) are calculated between each model footprint and that calculated by the CMAQ modeling system version 4.6. The correlation coefficient quantifies model agreement in terms of spatial patterns, and the CVRMSE measures the magnitude of the difference between model footprints. Possible reasons for the differences between model results are discussed. Finally, implications and recommendations for the regulatory assessment of the impact of major industrial sources using regional air quality modeling systems are discussed in the light of results from this case study.     

The Population Ecology of Two Tropical Trees, Brachychiton diversifolius (Malvaceae) and Bombax ceiba (Bombaceae), Harvested by Indigenous Woodcarvers in Arnhem Land, Australia

We describe the population ecology of two tropical deciduous trees, Bombax ceiba leiocarpum A. Robyns and Brachychiton diversifolius R. Br., which are in high demand for Indigenous sculpture production in Arnhem Land, Australia. We monitored tagged populations of both species at two locations for 2?years to examine their reproduction, growth, and survival rates and their response to harvest. Both species have similar life histories: they reproduce during the dry season (June-November) producing a high seed load, seed predation was high, seeds did not survive in the soil past the following wet season to form a seed bank, and germination rates were low and variable for both species. Average annual circumference growth rates were 1.07?cm?year(-1) for B. ceiba and 0.98?cm?year(-1) for B. diversifolius, with most of the growth occurring during the early wet season. Most (65-88?%) of the harvested B. ceiba and B. diversifolius stems coppiced. Coppice and stem size class were the main factors influencing tree growth rates with coppice stems growing up to six times faster than similar sized non-coppice stems. The survival of B. ceiba and B. diversifolius stems was size class dependent and affected by local site factors (e.g. fire and other disturbances) so that the smaller size classes had a low probability of survival. Given the resprouting potential of both species, their wild harvest is likely to have only minimal local impact on wild populations. However, further population modelling is required to determine whether the small and disjunct B. ceiba populations can sustain harvesting at current levels.     

Practitioner and scientist perceptions of successful amphibian conservation

Conservation requires successful outcomes. However, success is perceived in many different ways depending on the desired outcome. Through a questionnaire survey, we examined perceptions of success among 355 scientists and practitioners working on amphibian conservation from over 150 organizations in more than 50 countries. We also sought to identify how different types of conservation actions and respondent experience and background influenced perceptions. Respondents identified 4 types of success: species and habitat improvements (84% of respondents); effective program management (36%); outreach initiatives such as education and public engagement (25%); and the application of science‐based conservation (15%). The most significant factor influencing overall perceived success was reducing threats. Capacity building was rated least important. Perceptions were influenced by experience, professional affiliation, involvement in conservation practice, and country of residence. More experienced practitioners associated success with improvements to species and habitats and less so with education and engagement initiatives. Although science‐based conservation was rated as important, this factor declined in importance as the number of programs a respondent participated in increased, particularly among those from less economically developed countries. The ultimate measure of conservation success—population recovery—may be difficult to measure in many amphibians; difficult to relate to the conservation actions intended to drive it; and difficult to achieve within conventional funding time frames. The relaunched Amphibian Conservation Action Plan provides a framework for capturing lower level processes and outcomes, identifying gaps, and measuring progress.