Social comfort zones for transformative conservation decisions in a changing climate

Novel management interventions intended to mitigate the impacts of climate change on biodiversity are increasingly being considered by scientists and practitioners. However, resistance to more transformative interventions remains common across both specialist and lay communities and is generally assumed to be strongly entrenched. We used a decision-pathways survey of the public in Canada and the United States (n = 1490) to test two propositions relating to climate-motivated interventions for conservation: most public groups are uncomfortable with interventionist options for conserving biodiversity and given the strong values basis for preferences regarding biodiversity and natural systems more broadly, people are unlikely to change their minds. Our pathways design tested and retested levels of comfort with interventions for forest ecosystems at three different points in the survey. Comfort was reexamined given different nudges (including new information from trusted experts) and in reference to a particular species (bristlecone pine [Pinus longaeva]). In contrast with expectations of public unease, baseline levels of public comfort with climate interventions in forests was moderately high (46% comfortable) and increased further when respondents were given new information and the opportunity to change their choice after consideration of a particular species. People who were initially comfortable with interventions tended to remain so (79%), whereas 42% of those who were initially uncomfortable and 40% of those who were uncertain shifted to comfortable by the end of the survey. In short and across questions, comfort levels with interventions were high, and where discomfort or uncertainty existed, such positions did not appear to be strongly held. We argue that a new decision logic, one based on anthropogenic responsibility, is beginning to replace a default reluctance to intervene with nature.     

Judging where a ball will go: the case of curved free kicks in football

This study examined whether adding spin to a ball in the free kick situation in football affects a professional footballer’s perception of the ball’s future arrival position. Using a virtual reality set-up, participants observed the flight paths of aerodynamically realistic free kicks with (±600 rpm) and without sidespin. With the viewpoint being fixed in the centre of the goal, participants had to judge whether the ball would have ended up in the goal or not. Results show that trajectories influenced by the Magnus force caused by sidespin gave rise to a significant shift in the percentage of goal responses. The resulting acceleration that causes the ball to continually change its heading direction as the trajectory unfolds does not seem to be taken into account by the participants when making goal judgments. We conclude that the visual system is not attuned to such accelerated motion, which may explain why goalkeepers appear to misjudge the future arrival point of such curved free kicks. Electronic Supplementary Material  Supplementary material is available for this article at .     

Environmental innovation strategies: When and why NGOs go beyond public regulations

The concept of environmental innovation strategies (EIS) is introduced and discussed. The notion refers to the conduct by which non-governmental organisations (NGOs) act as policy entrepreneurs seeking to address environmental issues by going beyond the provisions of public regulations. Environmental innovation is understood as the product of a process of social interactions between heterogeneous types of actors, including NGOs. Three social mechanisms are introduced in order to capture the conditions enabling and motivating NGOs to pursue EIS, as well as the politics through which EIS are produced. These mechanisms are then discussed in the light of two in-depth case studies in Indonesia and Switzerland. The findings highlight the institutional frustration and mix of concerns that push NGOs to engage in EIS, as well as the non-spontaneous nature of environmental innovations. Innovation represents, in the end, a game of power that should be analysed as such.     

Uncertainty in establishing forest reference levels and predicting future forest-based carbon stocks for REDD+

Forest reference levels (FRLs) provide a benchmark for assessing reduced emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+), and they are central to demonstrate additionality of REDD+. Attaining realistic FRLs, however, is challenging, especially in complex mosaic landscapes. We established FRLs in northern Laos for different reference periods and tested them against actual carbon stock changes. Annual time series of Landsat satellite images were used to capture the subtle changes in carbon stocks in complex landscapes characterized by shifting cultivation. We found that FRLs differ considerably depending on the reference period chosen. Abrupt land-use changes occurred when hybrid maize replaced traditional shifting cultivation and forests, and this invalidated carbon stock trends that would have been predicted had the FRL been projected into the future. We conclude that demonstrating additionality of REDD+ in fast developing areas is difficult and that payment systems rewarding potential emission reductions against hypothetical extrapolation of FRLs are unlikely to be a cost-effective strategy.     

The recursive model as a new approach to validate and monitor activity sensors

Activity sensors are increasingly being used to monitor animal activity but current methods, used to validate the relationship between the motion sensor information and the actual behavior of animals, have weaknesses. This study aims to improve the methods used to estimate activity level from dual axis activity sensors and to validate the Tellus activity sensor for reindeer (Rangifer tarandus). We developed a new approach, the recursive model (a recursive application of a logistic regression), to predict continuous values of activity without biased estimations or previous modifications of the dataset. We compared this new recursive model approach with two traditional approaches: the tree classification method and the standard model (based on simple logistic regression). Estimations from the tree classification and the standard model were dependent on the dataset used for validation, whereas the recursive model gave unbiased estimations. Estimations from standard and recursive models were also more accurate (lower average absolute errors) than those from the tree classification method and they had a slightly better discriminatory power (higher percentage of good classification). We successfully applied the recursive model for the first time and validated the Tellus activity sensor for reindeer. Any user can apply our methodology to obtain their own equations of the relationship between activity sensor values and the level of activity of the individual, and users monitoring reindeer activity with Tellus activity sensor can directly apply the provided equations under appropriate conditions.     

Climate Change and Floodplain Delineation in Two Southern Quebec River Basins1

Laforce, Serge, Marie‐Claude Simard, Robert Leconte, and François Brissette, 2011. Climate Change and Floodplain Delineation in Two Southern Quebec River Basins. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(4):785‐799. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00560.x Abstract: A methodology is presented for mapping the flooded extent of rivers under projected climate change. The methodology follows a top‐down modeling approach, where future climate projections generated by global climate models (GCMs) are downscaled to the watershed scale and used as input to hydrological and hydrodynamic models for predicting future river flows and associated open water levels. A range of possible future climate responses are taken into account, allowing quantification of flood‐mapping uncertainties resulting from GCM structure and greenhouse gas emission scenarios (GHGES). Probabilistic projections of future flood zones are developed by assuming that all GCMs and GHGES be equally weighted. The proposed methodology was applied to two river basins located in southern Quebec, Canada, for the time horizons 2020 and 2080. Twenty‐ and hundred‐year floods were computed and corresponding flood maps have been produced. Results indicate that there is a general trend toward an increased spring peak discharge for the Châteauguay River Basin and a decrease for the du Nord River Basin at the 2020 horizon. A less obvious trend was observed for the 2080 horizon, some GCM‐GHGES producing an increase in spring peak flows, whereas others would result in a less severe spring flood. These uncertainties in flood flows have cascaded into uncertainties in the corresponding flooded extent and represented as probabilistic flood maps.     

Relationships between simulated water stress and mortality and growth rates in underplanted Toona ciliata Roem. in subtropical Argentinean plantations

Toona ciliata Roem. (Australian red cedar) requires a nurse-tree overstory to prevent damage from drought and irradiation in some regions of north-eastern Argentina. T. ciliata was planted in the understory of Pinus taeda L. (625 stems/ha), Pinus elliottii Engelm. × Pinus caribaea Morelet (625 stems/ha), and Grevillea robusta A. Cunn. (833 stems/ha) nurse trees, which were thinned to 0, 25, 50, 75 and 100% of the initial densities. We measured initial T. ciliata mortality and growth as well as Leaf Area Index (LAI) based on light transmission. T. ciliata soil water availability and its effect on early growth and mortality were examined by modelling drought stress using the two-dimensional forest hydrology model ForWaDy. Simulated patterns in T. ciliata water stress for the different overstory treatments were consistent with observed patterns of mortality. Early mortality was lowest with a G. robusta overstory, with corresponding lowest drought stress values and high modelled soil water contents in the top soil layer in intermediate and high overstory densities. Mortality was highest with a P. elliottii × P. caribaea overstory in treatments with the highest modelled drought stress values in the most open treatments. The model supported our field observations by indicating that water stress was an important limitation to T. ciliata survival and growth on our study sites. The linkage between T. ciliata establishment success, early growth and soil water availability as indicated by ForWaDy, leads us to conclude that the model is a suitable stand management tool for guiding establishment of T. ciliata plantations.     

From large-scale to micromachining: A review of force prediction models

In this paper, a review of work performed in the area of force modelling in metal cutting processes is presented. Past and present trends are described and criticised to compare their relevance with current requirements. Several approaches are reviewed, such as empirical, mechanistic and analytical models. The models’ ability to predict forces, from rough machining to finish machining, is analysed.