In loss estimation there is a spatial mismatch of hazard data that are commonly modeled on an explicit raster level and exposure
data that are often available only for aggregated administrative units. Usually disaggregation methods that use ancillary
information to distribute lumped exposure data in a finer spatial resolution help to bridge this gap. However, the actual
influence of different mapping techniques and ancillary data on the final loss estimation has not been analyzed yet. In this
paper three methods are applied to disaggregate residential building assets using two kinds of land use/land cover (LULC)
data. The resulting disaggregated assets are validated and compared using census data of the residential building number on
the community and constituency level. In addition, the disaggregated assets are taken to estimate residential building losses
due to the flood in August 2002 in 21 municipalities on the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany. Losses are calculated with the
help of four loss models. In general, disaggregation helps to decrease the error variance within the loss estimation. It must,
however, be stated that the application of sophisticated disaggregation methods does not lead to significant improvements
compared to the straightforward binary method. Therefore more effort should instead be put into the provision of high-resolution
LULC data. Finally, the remaining uncertainties in loss estimation are high and demand further improvements in all modeling
aspects. 相似文献
Adaptive maritime spatial planning (MSP) uses monitoring and evaluation of the effectiveness of spatial and temporal management
measures to promote understanding and improve planning and decision-making. An adaptive approach to MSP involves exploring
alternative ways to meet management objectives, predicting the outcomes of alternative management measures, implementing one
or more of these alternative management measures, monitoring to learn about the effects of management measures, and then using
the results to update knowledge and adjust management actions. A monitoring and evaluation plan should be designed to be both
cost effective and comprehensive. The process of setting and assessing performance metrics requires that the ecological and
socio-economic objectives of the spatial management plan must be clearly stated up front for management actions to reflect
those objectives accurately. To evaluate the effectiveness of a MSP plan, a range of ecological, socio-economic and institutional
indicators need to be developed and monitored. 相似文献
In this paper, we explore a range of concerns that arise in measuring short-term effects of ozone on health. In particular,
we tackle the problem of measuring exposure using alternative daily measures of ozone derived from hourly concentrations.
We adopt the exposure paradigm of Chiogna and Bellini (Environmetrics 13:55–69, 2002) extending it to ozone concentrations,
and we compare its performances with respect to traditional exposure measures by exploiting model selection. To investigate
the stability of model selection, we then apply the idea of bootstrapping the modelling process. 相似文献
Salinity levels vary spatially in coastal areas, depending on proximity to freshwater sources, and may also be slowly decreasing
as a result of anthropogenic climatic changes. The impact of salinity on host–parasite interactions is potentially a key regulator
of transmission processes in intertidal areas, where trematodes are extremely common parasites of invertebrates and vertebrates.
We investigated experimentally the effects of long-term exposure to decreased salinity levels on output of infective stages
(cercariae) and their transmission success in the trematode Philophthalmus sp. This parasite uses the snail Zeacumantus subcarinatus as intermediate host, in which it asexually produces cercariae. After leaving the snail, cercariae encyst externally on hard
substrates to await accidental ingestion by shorebirds, which serve as definitive hosts. We found that at reduced salinities
(25 or 30 psu), the cercarial output of the parasite was lower, the time taken by cercariae to encyst was longer, fewer cercariae
successfully encysted and encysted parasites had lower long-term survival than at normal seawater salinity (35 psu). The strong
effect of salinity on the replication and transmission of this parasite suggests that there may be sources and sinks of transmission
to birds along coastal areas, depending on local salinity conditions. Also, unless it evolves to adapt to changing conditions,
the predicted reduction in salinity as a consequence of climate change may have negative impact on the parasite’s abundance. 相似文献
Loss of zooxanthellae (dinoflagellate Symbiodinium) from corals will sometimes lead to mass mortality of corals. To detect and quantify Symbiodinium released from corals, we developed a zooxanthellae “trap” and a quantitative PCR (qPCR) system with Symbiodinium clades A–F-specific primer sets. The trap was attached to a branch or the surface of several wild stony corals, and the water
samples within the traps, including released Symbiodinium, were subjected to qPCR. All tested corals released clade C Symbiodinium at estimates of ~5,900 cells h−1 cm−2 of coral surface. Although all tested Pocillopora eydouxi harboured both clades C and D, some of these colonies released only clade C or released a lesser amount of clade D than that
in the tissues. Our Symbiodinium quantification system revealed that wild hermatypic corals constantly release Symbiodinium to the environment. Our result suggests that some corals may discharge certain clades of Symbiodinium alternatively. 相似文献
Environmental Science and Pollution Research - It is of great significance for the coordinated development of the environment and the economy to study the impact of the human driving factors of... 相似文献
Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Caffeine is considered the most representative pharmaceutical emerging contaminant (PEC) because of its ubiquity, high environmental abundance,... 相似文献
Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) exposure and genetic susceptibility were conductive to genotoxic effects including gene damage, which can increase mutational probability. We aimed to explore the dose-effect associations of PAH exposure with damage of exons of epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) and breast cancer susceptibility gene 1 (BRCA1), as well as their associations whether modified by Flap endonuclease 1 (FEN1) genotype. Two hundred eighty-eight coke oven male workers were recruited, and we detected the concentration of 1-hydroxypyrene (1-OH-pyr) as PAH exposure biomarker in urine and examined base modification in exons of EGFR and BRCA1 respectively, and genotyped FEN1 rs174538 polymorphism in plasma. We found that the damage indexes of exon 19 and 21 of EGFR (EGFR-19 and EGFR-21) were both significantly associated with increased urinary 1-OH-pyr (both Ptrend < 0.001). The levels of urinary 1-OH-pyr were both significantly associated with increased EGFR-19 and EGFR-21 in both smokers and nonsmokers (both P < 0.001). Additionally, we observed that the urinary 1-OH-pyr concentrations were linearly associated with both EGFR-19 and EGFR-21 only in rs174538 GA+AA genotype carriers (both P < 0.001). Moreover, FEN1rs rs174538 showed modifying effects on the associations of urinary 1-OH-pyr with EGFR-19 and EGFR-21 (both Pinteraction < 0.05). Our findings revealed the linear dose-effect association between exon damage of EGFR and PAH exposure and highlight differences in genetic contributions to exon damage and have the potential to identify at-risk subpopulations who are susceptible to adverse health effects induced by PAH exposure.