酸化湖泊水生生物恢复的理论框架构建

在欧洲和北美广大地区,随着大气硫沉降的减少,地表水体酸度正在逐渐降低,但是对水质改善的生态响应过程却依然扑朔迷离.有些湖泊和河流的生物正在恢复,有些水体的生物并没有得到恢复.为理解这些生物响应的差异,有利于酸雨问题的有效管理,我们需要对下面2个问题有清晰的认识:①生物群落恢复所必须经历的生态步骤;②倘若恢复受阻,从哪里着手对恢复进程实施干预,如何干预.本文通过构建一套理论框架来回答上述问题.第一层框架是基于生态学考虑而构建的,通过决策树来反映生态恢复进程中必须经历的若干步骤,步骤之间则通过管理工具或对瓶颈的响应来连接.水质不佳,移生生物供给不足以建群,以及群落水平上对恢复动态变化的阻碍等等都可能成为恢复的瓶颈所在.第二层框架则是基于管理层次来构建的,为了克服瓶颈,框架指明从哪里着手对恢复进程实施干预,为建模来进一步将框架具体化,需要做哪些研究.一旦我们可以用模型来预测酸化水体生态恢复的速率和程度,对硫排放减少带来的效益评价就变得简单起来.而这些模型的构建需要充分认识恢复进程中的生态步骤.本文提出的理论框架将有助于我们朝这个目标迈进.     

欧洲地表酸化水体恢复--未来展望

到目前为止,有关欧洲地表酸化水体大范围化学恢复的文献层出不穷,而有关生物恢复的报道并不多见.建立在现今欧洲排放减少计划之上的模型研究表明,化学恢复仍将继续.而影响恢复进程的诸多不确定性因素主要包括:未来生态系统内氮的可能行为和气候变化的影响.下列4个与气候变化相关的因子可能对未来恢复进程产生影响:①海水盐分入侵事件爆发频率和强度增加;②干旱发生频率和强度上升;③有机碳交换周期加快;④硝化作用增强.目前降低水体酸化程度的国际性协作是成功的,但是未来还有大量问题需要解决,也会遇到许多困难.对未来硫、氮排放减少后以及气候变化背景下酸化地表水体的水化学和水生生物变化需要继续监测.     

Developing conceptual frameworks for the recovery of aquatic biota from acidification

Surface water acidity is decreasing in large areas of Europe and North America in response to reductions in atmospheric S deposition, but the ecological responses to these water-quality improvements are uncertain. Biota are recovering in some lakes and rivers, as water quality improves, but they are not yet recovering in others. To make sense of these different responses, and to foster effective management of the acid rain problem, we need to understand 2 things: i) the sequence of ecological steps needed for biotic communities to recover; and ii) where and how to intervene in this process should recovery stall. Here our purpose is to develop conceptual frameworks to serve these 2 needs. In the first framework, the primarily ecological one, a decision tree highlights the sequence of processes necessary for ecological recovery, linking them with management tools and responses to bottlenecks in the process. These bottlenecks are inadequate water quality, an inadequate supply of colonists to permit establishment, and community-level impediments to recovery dynamics. A second, more management-oriented framework identifies where we can intervene to overcome these bottlenecks, and what research is needed to build the models to operationalize the framework. Our ability to assess the benefits of S emission reduction would be simplified if we had models to predict the rate and extent of ecological recovery from acidification. To build such models we must identify the ecological steps in the recovery process. The frameworks we present will advance us towards this goal.     

Acidification-induced chemical changes in coniferous forest soils in southern Sweden 1988-1999

Thirty-two Norway spruce [Picea abies (L.) Karst.] and Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) stands in southern Sweden were studied for a period of 12 years to evaluate acidification-induced chemical changes in the soil. Soil, at 20-30 cm depth in the mineral layer, was sampled three times during this period (1988, 1993 and 1999). The results show that pH(BaCl2) in mineral soil decreased by, on average, 0.17 units between 1988 and 1999, accompanied by an increase in aluminium (Al) concentration and a decrease in base saturation in the soil. In 1999, the base saturation was below 5% in 58% of the 32 sites compared with 16% in 1988 and 7% in 1993. Concentrations of calcium (Ca), potassium (K) and magnesium (Mg) are low and decreasing. Based on C/N ratios in humus, 45% of the sites may be subjected to leaching of considerable amounts of nitrate. The results show that the acidification of coniferous forest soils in southern Sweden is continuing, and that the negative effects on the nutrient status in soil are extensive. The results are compared with reference values for productive, long-term sustainably managed boreal coniferous or mixed forest soils and implications for long-term sustainability are discussed.     

Estimation and validation of PM2.5/PM10 exhaust and non-exhaust emission factors for practical street pollution modelling

In order to carry out efficient traffic and air quality management, validated models and PM emission estimates are needed. This paper compares current available emission factor estimates for PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 from emission databases and different emission models, and validates these against eight high quality street pollution measurements in Denmark, Sweden, Germany, Finland and Austria.The data sets show large variation of the PM concentration and emission factors with season and with location. Consistently at all roads the PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 emission factors are lower in the summer month than the rest of the year. For example, PM₁₀ emission factors are in average 5–45% lower during the month 6–10 compared to the annual average.The range of observed total emission factors (including non-exhaust emissions) for the different sites during summer conditions are 80–130 mg km⁻¹ for PM₁₀, 30–60 mg km⁻¹ for PM_2.5 and 20–50 mg km⁻¹ for the exhaust emissions.We present two different strategies regarding modelling of PM emissions: (1) For Nordic conditions with strong seasonal variations due to studded tyres and the use of sand/salt as anti-skid treatment a time varying emission model is needed. An empirical model accounting for these Nordic conditions was previously developed in Sweden. (2) For other roads with a less pronounced seasonal variation (e.g. in Denmark, Germany, Austria) methods using a constant emission factor maybe appropriate. Two models are presented here.Further, we apply the different emission models to data sets outside the original countries. For example, we apply the “Swedish” model for two streets without studded tyre usage and the “German” model for Nordic data sets. The “Swedish” empirical model performs best for streets with studded tyre use, but was not able to improve the correlation versus measurements in comparison to using constant emission factors for the Danish side. The “German” method performed well for the streets without clear seasonal variation and reproduces the summer conditions for streets with pronounced seasonal variation. However, the seasonal variation of PM emission factors can be important even for countries not using studded tyres, e.g. in areas with cold weather and snow events using sand and de-icing materials. Here a constant emission factor probably will under-estimate the 90-percentiles and therefore a time varying emission model need to be used or developed for such areas.All emission factor models consistently indicate that a large part (about 50–85% depending on the location) of the total PM₁₀ emissions originates from non-exhaust emissions. This implies that reduction measures for the exhaust part of the vehicle emissions will only have a limited effect on ambient PM₁₀ levels.     

Determination of CH4, CO2 and N2O in air samples and soil atmosphere by gas chromatography mass spectrometry, GC-MS

A method for determination of the climate gases CH4, CO2 and N2O in air samples and soil atmosphere was developed using GC-MS. The method uses straightforward gas chromatography (separation of the gases) with a mass spectrometric detector in single ion mode (specific determination). The gases were determined with high sensitivity and high sample throughput (18 samples h(-1)). The LOD (3sigma) for the gases were 0.10 micro L L(-1) for CH4, 20 microL L(-1) for CO2 and 0.02 microL L(-1) for N2O. The linear range (R2 = 0.999) was up to 500 microL L(-1) for CH4, 4000 microL L(-1) for CO2 and 80 microL L(-1) for N2O. The samples were collected in 10 mL vials and a 5 microL aliquot was injected on column. The method was tested against certified gas references, the analytical data gave an accuracy within +/-5% and a precision of +/-3%. The presence of < or = 10% by volume of C2H2 (often used experimentally to prevent N2 formation from N2O) did not interfere with detection for the targeted trace gases.     

Evaluation of measures of impairment in real and simulated driving: Results from a randomized,placebo-controlled study

Objective: Standard deviation of lateral position (SDLP) is often the primary outcome in experimental studies on impaired driving. However, other measures may be easier and more practical to obtain and reflect a broader range of driving-related behaviors. We wanted to assess the validity and sensitivity of a range of measures in a driving simulator as well as during real driving and compare these to SDLP.

Methods: Twenty healthy male volunteers undertook 6 driving trials each, 3 in a regular car on a closed track resembling rural road conditions and 3 in a simulator with an identical driving scenario. Ethanol was used as impairing substance due to its well-characterized effects on driving. The subjects were tested sober and at blood alcohol concentrations (BAC) of approximately 0.5 and 0.9 g/L. We explored dose–response relationships between BAC and a range of driving-related measures, as well as their BAC-dependent effect sizes.

Results: In simulator driving, ethanol intake increased steering wheel reversal frequency, steering wheel movement measures, average speed, standard deviation of speed, and pedal use frequency. At the test track, only steering wheel movement and standard deviation of speed were significantly correlated to BAC. Likewise, reaction to unexpected incidents and observance of red traffic lights were adversely affected by ethanol in the simulator but not at the test track. Whereas SDLP showed a relatively large effect size that was similar in simulated and real driving, all other measures demonstrated smaller effect sizes, with less pronounced BAC effects on the test track than in the simulator.

Conclusions: The results suggest that the driving-related measures explored in this study are less sensitive to alcohol-mediated driving impairment than SDLP, especially during real (test track) driving. The discrepancy in effect sizes between simulated and real driving may imply low external validity of these measures in simulator studies.     

Commentary: Status of road safety in Asia

Objectives: The objective of this article is to assess the status of road safety in Asia and present accident and injury prevention strategies based on global road safety improvement experiences and discuss the way forward by indicating opportunities and countermeasures that could be implemented to achieve a new level of safety in Asia.

Methods: This study provides a review and analyses of data in the literature, including from the World Health Organization (WHO) and World Bank, and a review of lessons learned from best practices in high-income countries. In addition, an estimation of costs due to road transport injuries in Asia and review of future trends in road transport is provided.

Results: Data on the global and Asian road safety problem and status of prevention strategies in Asia as well as recommendations for future actions are discussed. The total number of deaths due to road accidents in the 24 Asian countries, encompassing 56% of the total world population, is 750,000 per year (statistics 2010). The total number of injuries is more than 50 million, of which 12% are hospital admissions. The loss to the economy in the 24 Asian countries is estimated to around US$800 billion or 3.6% of the gross domestic product (GDP).

Conclusions: This article clearly shows that road safety is causing large problems and high costs in Asia, with an enormous impact on the well-being of people, economy, and productivity. In many Asian low- and middle-income countries, the yearly number of fatalities and injuries is increasing. Vulnerable road users (pedestrians, cyclists, and motorcyclists combined) are particularly at risk. Road safety in Asia should be given rightful attention, including taking powerful, effective actions. This review stresses the need for reliable accident data, because there is considerable underreporting in the official statistics. Reliable accident data are imperative to determine evidence-based intervention strategies and monitor the success of these interventions and analyses. On the other hand, lack of good high-quality accident data should not be an excuse to postpone interventions. There are many opportunities for evidence-based transport safety improvements, including measures concerning the 5 key risk factors: speed, drunk driving, not wearing motorcycle helmets, not wearing seat belts, and not using child restraints in cars, as specified in the Decade of Action for Road Safety 2011–2020. In this commentary, a number of additional measures are proposed that are not covered in the Decade of Action Plan. These new measures include separate roads or lanes for pedestrians and cyclists; helmet wearing for e-bike riders; special attention to elderly persons in public transportation; introduction of emerging collision avoidance technologies, in particular automatic emergency braking (AEB) and alcohol locks; improved truck safety focusing on the other road user (including blind spot detection technology; underride protection at the front, rear, and side; and energy-absorbing fronts); and improvements in motorcycle safety concerning protective clothing, requirements for advanced braking systems, improved visibility of motorcycles by using daytime running lights, and better guardrails.