Protected areas are a cornerstone for forest protection, but they are not always effective during times of socioeconomic and institutional crises. The Carpathian Mountains in Eastern Europe are an ecologically outstanding region, with widespread seminatural and old‐growth forest. Since 1990, Carpathian countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Ukraine) have experienced economic hardship and institutional changes, including the breakdown of socialism, European Union accession, and a rapid expansion of protected areas. The question is how protected‐area effectiveness has varied during these times across the Carpathians given these changes. We analyzed a satellite‐based data set of forest disturbance (i.e., forest loss due to harvesting or natural disturbances) from 1985 to 2010 and used matching statistics and a fixed‐effects estimator to quantify the effect of protection on forest disturbance. Protected areas in the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and the Ukraine had significantly less deforestation inside protected areas than outside in some periods; the likelihood of disturbance was reduced by 1–5%. The effectiveness of protection increased over time in these countries, whereas the opposite was true in Romania. Older protected areas were most effective in Romania and Hungary, but newer protected areas were more effective in Czech Republic, and Poland. Strict protection (International Union for Conservation of Nature [IUCN] protection category Ia‐II) was not more effective than landscape‐level protection (IUCN III‐VI). We suggest that the strength of institutions, the differences in forest privatization, forest management, prior distribution of protected areas, and when countries joined the European Union may provide explanations for the strikingly heterogeneous effectiveness patterns among countries. Our results highlight how different the effects of protected areas can be at broad scales, indicating that the effectiveness of protected areas is transitory over time and space and suggesting that generalizations about the effectiveness of protected areas can be misleading. 相似文献
Bayesian network analyses can be used to interactively change the strength of effect of variables in a model to explore complex relationships in new ways. In doing so, they allow one to identify influential nodes that are not well studied empirically so that future research can be prioritized. We identified relationships in host and pathogen biology to examine disease‐driven declines of amphibians associated with amphibian chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis). We constructed a Bayesian network consisting of behavioral, genetic, physiological, and environmental variables that influence disease and used them to predict host population trends. We varied the impacts of specific variables in the model to reveal factors with the most influence on host population trend. The behavior of the nodes (the way in which the variables probabilistically responded to changes in states of the parents, which are the nodes or variables that directly influenced them in the graphical model) was consistent with published results. The frog population had a 49% probability of decline when all states were set at their original values, and this probability increased when body temperatures were cold, the immune system was not suppressing infection, and the ambient environment was conducive to growth of B. dendrobatidis. These findings suggest the construction of our model reflected the complex relationships characteristic of host–pathogen interactions. Changes to climatic variables alone did not strongly influence the probability of population decline, which suggests that climate interacts with other factors such as the capacity of the frog immune system to suppress disease. Changes to the adaptive immune system and disease reservoirs had a large effect on the population trend, but there was little empirical information available for model construction. Our model inputs can be used as a base to examine other systems, and our results show that such analyses are useful tools for reviewing existing literature, identifying links poorly supported by evidence, and understanding complexities in emerging infectious‐disease systems. 相似文献
Vegetative treatment areas (VTAs) are commonly being used as an alternative method of agricultural process wastewater treatment. However, it is also apparent that to completely prevent discharge of pollutants to the surrounding environment, settling of particulates and bound constituents from overland flow through VTAs is not sufficient. For effective remediation of dissolved agricultural pollutants, VTAs must infiltrate incoming wastewater. A simple water balance model for predicting VTA soil saturation and surface discharge in landscapes characterized by sloping terrain and a shallow restrictive layer is presented and discussed. The model accounts for the cumulative effect of successive rainfall events and wastewater input on soil moisture status and depth to water table. Nash–Sutcliffe efficiencies ranged from 0.65 to 0.81 for modeled and observed water table elevations after calibration of saturated hydraulic conductivity. Precipitation data from relatively low, average, and high annual rainfall years were used with soil, site, and contributing area data from an example VTA for simulations and comparisons. Model sensitivity to VTA width and contributing area (i.e. barnyard, feedlot, silage bunker, etc.) curve number was also investigated. Results of this analysis indicate that VTAs should be located on steeper slopes with deeper, more-permeable soils, which effectively lowers the shallow water table. In sloping landscapes (>2%), this model provides practitioners an easy-to-use VTA design and/or risk assessment tool that is more hydrological process-based than current methods. 相似文献
The main aim of this study is the integrated assessment of a proposed Waste-to-Energy facility that could contribute in the Municipal Solid Waste Management system of the Region of Central Greece. In the context of this paper alternative transfer schemes for supplying the candidate facility were assessed considering local conditions and economical criteria. A mixed-integer linear programming model was applied for the determination of optimum locations of Transfer Stations for an efficient supplying chain between the waste producers and the Waste-to-Energy facility. Moreover different Regional Waste Management Scenarios were assessed against multiple criteria, via the Multi Criteria Decision Making method ELECTRE III. The chosen criteria were total cost, Biodegradable Municipal Waste diversion from landfill, energy recovery and Greenhouse Gas emissions and the analysis demonstrated that a Waste Management Scenario based on a Waste-to-Energy plant with an adjacent landfill for disposal of the residues would be the best performing option for the Region, depending however on the priorities of the decision makers. In addition the study demonstrated that efficient planning is necessary and the case of three sanitary landfills operating in parallel with the WtE plant in the study area should be avoided. Moreover alternative cases of energy recovery of the candidate Waste-to-Energy facility were evaluated against the requirements of the new European Commission Directive on waste in order for the facility to be recognized as recovery operation. The latter issue is of high significance and the decision makers in European Union countries should take it into account from now on, in order to plan and implement facilities that recover energy efficiently. Finally a sensitivity check was performed in order to evaluate the effects of increased recycling rate, on the calorific value of treated Municipal Solid Waste and the gate fee of the candidate plant and found that increased recycling efforts would not diminish the potential for incineration with energy recovery from waste and neither would have adverse impacts on the gate fee of the Waste-to-Energy plant. In general, the study highlighted the need for efficient planning in solid waste management, by taking into account multiple criteria and parameters and utilizing relevant tools and methodologies into this context. 相似文献
Activated (AC-PW) and non-activated (C-PW) carbonaceous materials were prepared from the Brazilian-pine fruit shell (Araucaria angustifolia) and tested as adsorbents for the removal of reactive orange 16 dye (RO-16) from aqueous effluents. The effects of shaking time, adsorbent dosage and pH on the adsorption capacity were studied. RO-16 uptake was favorable at pH values ranging from 2.0 to 3.0 and from 2.0 to 7.0 for C-PW and AC-PW, respectively. The contact time required to obtain the equilibrium using C-PW and AC-PW as adsorbents was 5 and 4 h at 298 K, respectively. The fractionary-order kinetic model provided the best fit to experimental data compared with other models. Equilibrium data were better fit to the Sips isotherm model using C-PW and AC-PW as adsorbents. The enthalpy and entropy of adsorption of RO-16 were obtained from adsorption experiments ranging from 298 to 323 K. 相似文献
Alum (aluminum sulfate) is the currently preferred chemical amendment for phosphorus (P) treatment in poultry litter (PL).
Aluminum-based drinking-water treatment residuals (Al-WTRs) are the waste by-product of the drinking-water treatment process
and have been effectively used to remove P from aqueous solutions, but their effectiveness in PL water extracts has not been
studied in detail. Elevated cost associated with alum could be minimized by using the equally effective WTRs to remove soluble
P from PL, and they can be obtained at a minimal cost from drinking-water treatment plants. 相似文献
Understanding the social dimensions of conservation opportunity is crucial for conservation planning in multiple‐use landscapes. However, factors that influence the feasibility of implementing conservation actions, such as the history of landscape management, and landholders’ willingness to engage are often difficult or time consuming to quantify and rarely incorporated into planning. We examined how conservation agencies could reduce costs of acquiring such data by developing predictive models of management feasibility parameterized with social and biophysical factors likely to influence landholders’ decisions to engage in management. To test the utility of our best‐supported model, we developed 4 alternative investment scenarios based on different input data for conservation planning: social data only; biological data only; potential conservation opportunity derived from modeled feasibility that incurs no social data collection costs; and existing conservation opportunity derived from feasibility data that incurred collection costs. Using spatially explicit information on biodiversity values, feasibility, and management costs, we prioritized locations in southwest Australia to control an invasive predator that is detrimental to both agriculture and natural ecosystems: the red fox (Vulpes vulpes). When social data collection costs were moderate to high, the most cost‐effective investment scenario resulted from a predictive model of feasibility. Combining empirical feasibility data with biological data was more cost‐effective for prioritizing management when social data collection costs were low (<4% of the total budget). Calls for more data to inform conservation planning should take into account the costs and benefits of collecting and using social data to ensure that limited funding for conservation is spent in the most cost‐efficient and effective manner. 相似文献
Monitoring of body burden of toxic elements is usually based on analysis of concentration of particular elements in blood, urine and/or hair. Analysis of these matrices, however, predominantly reflects short- or medium-term exposure to trace elements or pollutants. In this work, urinary stones were investigated as a matrix for monitoring long-term exposure to toxic and essential elements. A total of 431 samples of urinary calculi were subjected to mineralogical and elemental analysis by infrared spectroscopy and inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. The effect of mineralogical composition of the stones and other parameters such as sex, age and geographical location on contents of trace and minor elements is presented. Our results demonstrate the applicability of such approach and confirm that the analysis of urinary calculi can be helpful in providing complementary information on human exposure to trace metals and their excretion. Analysis of whewellite stones (calcium oxalate monohydrate) with content of phosphorus <0.6 % has been proved to be a promising tool for biomonitoring of trace and minor elements.