Geocybernetics: Controlling a Complex Dynamical System Under Uncertainty

   Global change, i.e. the mega-process radically transforming the relationship between nature and human civilization since the end of World War II, is investigated from the point of view of systems analysis. It is argued that this unbridled process should rather be domesticated by planetary control strategies transpiring from a new science called “geocybernetics”. The formal aspects of geocybernetic theory are sketched and illustrated in a tutorial theatre world reflecting the overall environment and development problematic. Within this setting a straightforward operationalization of the sweeping “sustainable development” ideal through a set of concise paradigms can be achieved. Evidence is provided that geocybernetics is actually feasible on the basis of earth system modelling and fuzzy-control techniques.     

To stay or to go: voluntary survivor turnover following an organizational downsizing

This paper examines the relationship between survivor reactions to a downsizing and retention subsequent to a downsizing. We hypothesize that survivors who experience the downsizing as distributively, procedurally, and interactionally just and who see top management as trustworthy will feel more attached to the organization because each reduces the threat inherent in downsizing. In addition, we hypothesize that survivors who feel empowered will also feel more attached to the organization because they feel better able to cope with the downsizing. We further hypothesize that those survivors who feel more attached to the organization following the downsizing will be more likely to remain with the organization in the coming year. The theoretical model is tested on a sample of aerospace employees who survived an organizational downsizing. The trustworthiness of management, distributive justice, procedural justice, and three dimensions of empowerment are found to facilitate more organizational attachment. Higher levels of attachment are found, in turn, to facilitate less voluntary turnover in the year following the downsizing. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Simplicity versus efficiency in sampling designs and estimation

Simplicity and efficiency in design and estimation are all important in deciding on sampling strategies. A simple model is given and illustrated for four practical situations to show how a good sampling strategy should be selected.The U.S. Government right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty free licence in and to any copyright is acknowledged.     

A first trimester trisomy 13/trisomy 18 risk algorithm combining fetal nuchal translucency thickness,maternal serum free β-hCG and PAPP-A

This study examines 45 cases of trisomy 13 and 59 cases of trisomy 18 and reports an algorithm to identify pregnancies with a fetus affected by trisomy 13 or 18 by a combination of maternal age fetal nuchal translucency (NT) thickness, and maternal serum free β-hCG and PAPP-A at 11–14 weeks of gestation. In this mixed trisomy group the median MoM NT was increased at 2.819, whilst the median MoMs for free β-hCG and PAPP-A were reduced at 0.375 and 0.201 respectively. We predict that with the use of the combined trisomy 13 and 18 algorithm and a risk cut-off of 1 in 150 will for a 0.3% false positive rate allow 95% of these chromosomal defects to be identified at 11–14 weeks. Such algorithms will enhance existing first trimester screening algorithms for trisomy 21. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dandy – Walker syndrome and corpus callosum agenesis in 5p deletion

5p deletion syndrome commonly known as cri du chat is well described in affected neonates with catlike cry and hypotonia. Karyotyping will usually show a deletion of the short arm of one chromosome 5 with variable breakpoints. Only a few cases have been reported prenatally, and the fetal form of the syndrome has not been clearly individualised. We report a new case of 5p deletion syndrome diagnosed prenatally in association with Dandy–Walker syndrome and agenesis of the corpus callosum. Other brain anomalies have been reported previously, but this unusual association suggests the use of a specific probe in the investigation of these malformations. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Utility of stormwater monitoring.

Stormwater runoff is now a major contributor to the pollution of coastal waters in the United States. Public agencies are responding by requiring stormwater monitoring to satisfy the National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System stormwater permit. However, studies to understand the utility of the current programs or to improve their usefulness have not yet been performed. In this paper, we evaluate the land-use-based program, the industrial stormwater permit program, and beach water-quality monitoring in the County of Los Angeles, California, to determine if the results will be helpful to planners and regulators in abating stormwater pollution. The utility of the program has been assessed based on the programs' ability to accurately estimate the emissions for different classes of land use. The land-use program appears successful, while the industrial monitoring program does not. Beach water-quality monitoring suffers from a lack of real-time monitoring techniques. We also provide suggested improvements, such as sampling method and time, and parameter selection.