Climate impact on social systems: the risk assessment approach

A novel approach to the problem of estimating climate impact on social systems is suggested. This approach is based on a risk concept, where the notion of critical events is introduced and the probability of such events is estimated. The estimation considers both the inherent stochasticity of climatic processes and the artificial stochasticity of climate predictions due to scientific uncertainties. The method is worked out in some detail for the regional problem of crop production and the risks associated with global climate change, and illustrated by a case study (Kursk region of the FSU). In order to get local climatic characteristics (weather), a so-called statistical weather generator is used. One interesting finding is that the 3% risk level remains constant up to 1.0–1.1°C rise of mean seasonal temperature, if the variance does not change. On the other hand, the risk grows rapidly with increasing variance (even if the mean temperature rises very slowly). The risk approach is able to separate two problems: (i) assessment of global change impact, and (ii) decision making. The main task for the scientific community is to provide the politicians with different options; the choice of admissible (from the social point of view) critical events and the corresponding risk levels is the business of decision makers.     

Air pollution exposure monitoring and estimation. Part VI. Ambient exposure of adults in an industrialised region

This paper presents methodology and results of a dynamic individual air pollution exposure model (DINEX) that calculates the hourly exposure for each adult in a panel study. Each of over 260 participants, through the use of a diary, provided information used in the model to calculate his/her personal, individualised exposure. The participants filled out the diary daily, hour by hour, over two, two month periods. The exposure assessment model coupled the diary information and results of an indoor/outdoor measurement program, with the results of dispersion modelling on an hourly basis for an industrial area in Norway. The estimated air pollution concentrations from the dispersion model, based on continuous meteorological measurements, were calibrated with air pollutant concentrations measured continuously.     

Collaborative study to improve the quality control of rare earth element determinations in environmental matrices

In order to control the quality of rare earth determinations in environmental matrices, the Standards, Measurements and Testing Programme (formerly Community Bureau of Reference, BCR) of the European Commission has started a project, the final aim of which is to certify four types of matrices (tuna muscle, mussel tissue, aquatic plant and estuarine sediment) for their contents of a range of rare earth elements (Sc, Y and the lanthanides: La, Ce, Pr, Nd, Sm, Eu, Gd, Tb, Dy, Ho, Er, Tm, Yb and Lu). The elements U and Th were added to the study. The first part of this project consisted of an interlaboratory study which aimed to test the feasibility of preparation of environmental reference materials and to detect and remove most of the pitfalls observed in rare earth determinations. This paper presents the preparation of the four matrices for the intercomparison study and for the candidate reference material. The main results are presented of the interlaboratory study that was carried out prior to the certification campaign. This collaborative trial is the first attempt ever carried out at this scale to evaluate the state-of-the-art of rare earth determinations in the environment. Its impact on the improvement of chemical measurements will have positive effects on the comparability of data necessary for environmental monitoring.     

Microwave-Assisted Solvent Extraction of Air Particulates for the Determination of PAHs

A method for the determination of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in air particulates using microwave-assisted solvent extraction (MASE) coupled to a microwave extraction system (MES) is proposed. During the period of August to October, 1994, Singapore was enveloped by haze caused by forest fires in Sumatra, Indonesia. Air sampling were carried out during September and October; the determination of ambient air PAH levels in Singapore was undertaken. PAH analysis by GC-MS provided excellent sensitivity, linearity of quantitation, peak identification. This technique was evaluated using certified reference materials (CRMs) HS-4 and HS-6. Good recoveries of PAHs (>73.3%) were obtained for both CRMs. The MASE technique using MES is suitable for the determination of PAH levels in ambient air with no clean-up step required.     

RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY FOR KARST AQUIFERS: (2) SOLUTE-TRANSPORT MODELING

Ground-water flow and solute-transport simulation modeling are major components of most exposure and risk assessments of contaminated aquifers. Model simulations provide information on the spatial and temporal distributions of contaminants in subsurface media but are difficult to apply to karst aquifers in which conduit flow is important. Ground-water flow and solute transport in karst conduits typically display rapid-flow velocities, turbulent-flow regimes, concentrated pollutant-mass discharge, and exhibit open-channel or closed-conduit flow. Conventional ground-water models, dependent on the applicability of Darcy`s law, are inappropriate when applied to karst aquifers because of the (1) nonapplicability of Darcian-flow parameters, (2) typically nonlaminar flow regime, and (3) inability to locate the karst conduits through which most flow and contaminant transport occurs. Surface-water flow and solute-transport models conditioned on a set of parameters determined empirically from quantitative ground-water tracing studies may be effectively used to render fate-and-transport values of contaminants in karst conduits. Hydraulic-flow and geometric parameters developed in a companion paper were used in the surface-water model, TOXI5, to simulate hypothetical slug and continuous-source releases of ethylbenzene in a karst conduit. TOXI5 simulation results showed considerable improvement for predicted ethylbenzene-transport rates and concentrations over qualitative tracing and analytical ground-water model results. Ethylbenzene concentrations predicted by TOXI5 simulations were evaluated in exposure and risk assessment models.     

亚甲蓝分光光度法测定饮用水中阴离子表面活性剂的方法讨论

用10ml氯仿萃取离子缔合物一次,洗涤一次,不稀释。它与国标方法的线性回归无显著性差异,此方案测定样品的准确度En为0·34,小于1,结果令人满意,测量不确定度是除国标方法外最低的方案。因此它具有低污染、操作简单的特点,并可用于常规检测饮用水中的LAS。     

Modeling rhizofiltration: heavy-metal uptake by plant roots

The discovery of phytoaccumulation potential of plant species has led to its application for remediation of heavy-metal-contaminated soil and wastewater, which is termed as phytoextraction/rhizofiltration. For prediction, analysis, planning and cost-effective design of such systems, mathematical models not only are used as a screening tool but also provide optimal parameters like harvesting time, irrigation schedule, etc. Several laboratory and field scale studies have been carried out in the past, and mathematical expressions have been developed by various researchers for different phenomena like metal adsorption in soil, plant root growth with time, moisture and metal uptake by plant root, moisture movement in unsaturated zone, soil moisture relationship, etc. The complete design of any such phytoremediation program would require the knowledge of behavior of heavy-metal movement in soil, water and plant root system. In this paper, a model for simulating heavy-metal dynamics in soil, water and plant root system is developed and discussed. The governing non-linear partial differential equation is solved numerically by implicit finite difference method using Picard's iterative technique, and the formulation has been illustrated using a characteristic example. The source code is written in MATLAB.     

A dynamic statistical experiment for atmospheric interactions

Interactions among atmospheric parameters exist at different scales. The pristine approach for observational or model data analysis involves changing the input parameters one at a time (OAT) and studying the effect on the system. Limitations of this approach for atmospheric applications are discussed. A fractional factorial (FF) based study is evolved and a methodology is outlined involving dynamic graphical analysis. Observational data from the FIFE and HAPEX‐MOBILHY experiments are utilized with a vegetation and soil moisture scheme dynamically coupled in a planetary boundary layer model to demonstrate the robustness of this approach. Both low‐resolution and high‐resolution designs are considered. Various aspects of the vegetation‐atmosphere interactions are delineated. Results obtained from the interaction‐based FF approach differ considerably from the earlier OAT‐type studies.     

Methane emissions from natural wetlands

Methane is considered one of the most important greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Because of the strict anaerobic conditions required by CH₄-generating microorganisms, natural wetland ecosystems are one of the main sources of biogenic CH₄. The total natural wetland area is estimated to be 5.3 to 5.7 × 10¹² m², making up less than 5% of the Earth's land surface. However, natural wetland plays a disproportionately large role in CH₄ emissions. Wetlands are likely the largest natural sources of CH₄ to the atmosphere, accounting for about 20% of the current global annual emission. Out of the total amount of CH₄ emitted, northern wetlands contribute 34%, temperate wetlands 5%, and tropical systems about 60%.Because of the unique characteristics and high productivity, wetland ecosystems are important in the global carbon cycle. Natural wetlands are permanently or temporarily saturated. Strict anaerobic conditions consequently develop, which allows methanogenesis to occur. But the thin oxic layer and the oxic plant rhizophere promote activity of CH₄-oxidizing bacteria or methanotrophs. Thus, both CH₄ formation and consumption in wetland systems are microbiological processes and are controlled by many factors. Eight of the controlling factors, including carbon supply, soil oxidation-reduction status, pH, temperature, vegetation, salinity and sulfate content, soil hydrological conditions and CH₄ oxidation are discussed in this paper.     

Overstory mortality as an indicator of forest health in California

The interagency Forest Health Monitoring Program involves a network of about 4200 forest plots on a triangular grid across the United States. We present data on recent mortality of trees 27.9 cm diameter from the first three years of measurements in California (1992–1994). Three plot designs were used to collect data representative of a 1-ha stand at each site; the designs differed primarily in total area sampled (0.067, 0.4 and 1.0 ha). Approximately 50 sites were visited each year yielding a total of about 150. Field tallies showed few cases of recent mortality in the smallest plot size. Cumulative distribution functions of recent dead tree densities in the 0.067-ha plots differed significantly from those generated by tallies from entire 1-ha stands. We conclude that an area of 0.067 ha is unsuitable to assess and monitor overstory mortality in Pacific Coast forests.The U.S. government right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty free licence in and to any copyright is acknowledged.