小流域综合治理新设计研究——猪沼果模式

近年来,小流域综合治理的主旨思想改变了,其工作重心在于巩固和发展治理开发的成果,提升综合治理的科技含量,增加治理带来的经济效益。于是将小流域的治理与生产联系起来成为了当前科研人员的研究方向。文章对目前部分地区大力推广的"猪-沼-果"模式在小流域治理方面的概念、发展及综合效益等方面做了一些综述。总的来说,猪沼果模式能够增加农村的能源,增加农民收入,并保护绿植,促进小流域治理。     

呼兰河哈尔滨段水环境质量现状及污染源解析

为了解呼兰河哈尔滨段水环境质量现状及污染物来源,在平水期和枯水期,对呼兰河哈尔滨段沿线进行现场勘查及断面水质监测。结果表明,呼兰河哈尔滨段沿岸集中式排污点源、工业点源、农村生活污染、畜禽粪便、农田径流等各类污染源化学需氧量总入河量为7 671.02吨/年,氨氮总入河量为1 195.16吨/年。松北区的主要污染贡献源为肇兰新河支流污染;呼兰区的主要污染贡献源为集中式排污点源和农业面源污染。     

天津市滨海新区PM_(2.5)污染时空分布及影响因素研究

为了降低天津市滨海新区中PM_(2.5)的污染,需要对天津市滨海新区PM_(2.5)污染的时空分布和影响因素进行研究。研究天津市滨海新区近年来PM_(2.5)的时空分布特征,并选取PM_(2.5)的相关指标,对天津市滨海新区PM_(2.5)污染影响因素进行分析。结果表明,在天津市滨海新区的冬季时,PM_(2.5)的质量浓度值最高,在滨海新区的夏季时,PM_(2.5)的质量浓度值最低。PM_(2.5)在天津市滨海新区昼间大气中的质量浓度低于夜间大气中的质量浓度。     

考虑环境污染物减排的石油储运策略研究

随着经济的快速发展,科技水平不断地提高,中国石油行业发展迅速,石油储运的技术也在不断提高。对考虑环境污染物减排的石油储运策略进行研究,对石油储运的过程中出现污染源以及产生的危害进行论述,在此基础上对石油储运污染物减排存在的障碍性因素进行说明,最后针对上述问题,提出石油储运策略对污染物减排相应的解决措施,由变频调速污染物的减排技术、可燃气体的排放与回收技术等措施对石油储运策略的污染物减排进行优化,减少污染物的排放,对生态环境进行保护。     

Analysing the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrology models

Recently, the New Morris Method has been presented as an effective sensitivity analysis tool for mathematical models. The New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity of an output parameter to a given set of input parameters (first-order effects) and the extent these parameters interact with each other (second-order effects). This method requires the specification of two parameters (runs and resolution) that control the sampling of the output parameter to determine its sensitivity to various inputs. The criteria for these parameters have been set on the analysis of a well-behaved analytical function (see Cropp and Braddock, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 78:77–83, 2002), which may not be applicable to other physical models that describe complex processes. This paper will investigate the appropriateness of the criteria from (Cropp and Braddock, 2002) and hence the effectiveness of the New Morris Method to determine the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrologic models: the Soil Erosion and Deposition System and Griffith University Representation of Urban Hydrology. In the first case, this paper will separately analyse the sensitivity of an output parameter on a set of input parameters (first- and second-order effects) for each model and discuss the physical meaning of these sensitivities. This will be followed by an investigation into the sampling criteria by exploring the convergence of the sensitivity behaviour for each model as the sampling of the parameter space is increased. By comparing these trends to the convergence behaviour from Cropp and Braddock (2002), we will determine how well the New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity for each model and whether the sampling criteria are appropriate for these models. It will be shown that the New Morris Method can provide additional insight into the functioning of these models, and that, under a different metric, the sensitivity behaviour of these models does converge confirming the sampling criteria set by Cropp and Braddock.     

连续采样与五日法采样效果及费用的对比分析

通过对连续采样与五日法采样五种方法监测结果及所需费用的比较，得出连续采样方法监测结果更具有代表性，合理性，一次性投资大，但运行费用并不高的结论。     

Mathematical balance models for monitoring the state of Lake Baikal

The global cycles of man-produced pollutants entering the natural environment are reflected in changes of pollutant cycles, even in background regions.The system of mathematical balance simulation models of inorganic pollutant distribution and circulation (some heavy metals and pesticides included in the priority list for integrated background monitoring) has been developed for the Lake Baikal drainage basin. The system consists of the following units: (1) inventory and classification of regional sources of pollutants entering the atmosphere, natural waters and soils; (2) computation of the global atmospheric transfer and depositions; (3) regional spreading with atmospheric fluxes and deposition onto the underlying surfaces; (4) transport with waterflows feeding Lake Baikal; (5) transport with the lake currents and balance in the lake.The models developed have enabled improvement of existing programmes and systems of observations, in particular to substantiate the large-scale snow sampling and analysis network, and to develop the programme of integrated surveys of the state of Lake Baikal. Since 1981 these actions have been included in the operational network observations within the Lake Baikal Monitoring System.     

Climate impact on social systems: the risk assessment approach

A novel approach to the problem of estimating climate impact on social systems is suggested. This approach is based on a risk concept, where the notion of critical events is introduced and the probability of such events is estimated. The estimation considers both the inherent stochasticity of climatic processes and the artificial stochasticity of climate predictions due to scientific uncertainties. The method is worked out in some detail for the regional problem of crop production and the risks associated with global climate change, and illustrated by a case study (Kursk region of the FSU). In order to get local climatic characteristics (weather), a so-called statistical weather generator is used. One interesting finding is that the 3% risk level remains constant up to 1.0–1.1°C rise of mean seasonal temperature, if the variance does not change. On the other hand, the risk grows rapidly with increasing variance (even if the mean temperature rises very slowly). The risk approach is able to separate two problems: (i) assessment of global change impact, and (ii) decision making. The main task for the scientific community is to provide the politicians with different options; the choice of admissible (from the social point of view) critical events and the corresponding risk levels is the business of decision makers.     

A dynamic statistical experiment for atmospheric interactions

Interactions among atmospheric parameters exist at different scales. The pristine approach for observational or model data analysis involves changing the input parameters one at a time (OAT) and studying the effect on the system. Limitations of this approach for atmospheric applications are discussed. A fractional factorial (FF) based study is evolved and a methodology is outlined involving dynamic graphical analysis. Observational data from the FIFE and HAPEX‐MOBILHY experiments are utilized with a vegetation and soil moisture scheme dynamically coupled in a planetary boundary layer model to demonstrate the robustness of this approach. Both low‐resolution and high‐resolution designs are considered. Various aspects of the vegetation‐atmosphere interactions are delineated. Results obtained from the interaction‐based FF approach differ considerably from the earlier OAT‐type studies.     

Occurrence of dissolved PAHs in the Jinsha River (Panzhihua)--upper reaches of the Yangtze River,Southwest China

16 priority polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were determined in water samples from the Jinsha River (Panzhihua part), Southwest China. Total dissolved PAH concentrations varied from 21.89 microg l(-1) to 382.8 microg l(-1). It was found that the concentration of PAHs decreased along the flow direction due to the higher density distribution of coal chemical industry in the upstream of our study rivers. The pollution levels in our study area are significantly higher than previously reported values in other waters both in China and other countries. The predominance of benzo[k]fluoranthene and indeno[1,2,3-cd]pyrene was clearly observed in all water samples. On average these two compounds accounted for 98.3% of the total dissolved PAH concentration in water. The results showed the positive correlations among total dissolved PAHs, benzo[k]fluoranthene and indeno[1,2,3-cd]pyrene, which suggested that these two predominant PAHs have similar source and environmental behaviors in our study area. When compared with the survey results of organic micropollutants two decades ago, it was found that hydrocarbon pollution both predominated and even increased with the development of coal chemical industry in this area during the past 20 years. The results therefore provide important information on the current contamination status of a key industrial city in China, and points to the need for urgent action to investigate the relationship between the PAH composition and concentration in water from the Jinsha River and the wastewater discharge from coal chemical industry, and to identify the source, transport pathway and fate of PAHs in the area. It should then be necessary to adopt appropriate and instant measures to control the pollution around this area.