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21.
Douglas R. Murray Michael B. Newman 《Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association (1995)》2014,64(3):248-254
In order to calculate total concentrations for comparison to ambient air quality standards, monitored background concentrations are often combined with model predicted concentrations. Models have low skill in predicting the locations or time series of observed concentrations. Further, adding fixed points on the probability distributions of monitored and predicted concentrations is very conservative and not mathematically correct. Simply adding the 99th percentile predicted to the 99th percentile background will not yield the 99th percentile of the combined distributions. Instead, an appropriate distribution can be created by calculating all possible pairwise combinations of the 1-hr daily maximum observed background and daily maximum predicted concentration, from which a 99th percentile total value can be obtained. This paper reviews some techniques commonly used for determining background concentrations and combining modeled and background concentrations. The paper proposes an approach to determine the joint probabilities of occurrence of modeled and background concentrations. The pairwise combinations approach yields a more realistic prediction of total concentrations than the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) guidance approach and agrees with the probabilistic form of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards.
Implications: EPA's current approaches to determining background concentrations for compliance modeling purposes often lead to “double counting” of background concentrations and actual plume impacts and thus lead to overpredictions of total impacts. Further, the current Tier 1 approach of simply adding the top ends of the background and model predicted concentrations (e.g., adding the 99th percentiles of these distributions together) results in design value concentrations at probabilities in excess of the form of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards. 相似文献
22.
David G. Angeler Craig R. Allen Hannah E. Birgé Stina Drakare Brendan G. McKie Richard K. Johnson 《Ambio》2014,43(1):113-125
Freshwater ecosystems are important for global biodiversity and provide essential ecosystem services. There is consensus in the scientific literature that freshwater ecosystems are vulnerable to the impacts of environmental change, which may trigger irreversible regime shifts upon which biodiversity and ecosystem services may be lost. There are profound uncertainties regarding the management and assessment of the vulnerability of freshwater ecosystems to environmental change. Quantitative approaches are needed to reduce this uncertainty. We describe available statistical and modeling approaches along with case studies that demonstrate how resilience theory can be applied to aid decision-making in natural resources management. We highlight especially how long-term monitoring efforts combined with ecological theory can provide a novel nexus between ecological impact assessment and management, and the quantification of systemic vulnerability and thus the resilience of ecosystems to environmental change. 相似文献
23.
Occurrence of glyphosate and acidic herbicides in select urban rivers and streams in Canada, 2007 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1
24.
Nutrient loading to surface water systems has traditionally been associated with agricultural sources. Sources such as on-site wastewater systems (OWS) may be of concern especially in rural, nonagricultural watersheds. The impact of various point and nonpoint sources including OWS in Turkey Creek Watershed was evaluated using the Watershed Analysis Risk Management Framework, which was calibrated using 10 yr of observed stream flow and total P concentrations. Doubling the population in the watershed or OWS septic tank effluent P concentration increased mean stream total P concentration by a factor of 1.05. Converting all the OWS to a conventional sewer system with a removal efficiency of 93% at the wastewater treatment plant increased the mean total P concentration at the watershed outlet by a factor of 1.26. Reducing the soil adsorption capacity by 50% increased the mean stream total P concentration by a factor of 3.2. Doubling the initial P concentration increased the mean stream total P concentration by a factor of 1.96. Stream flow and sediment transport also substantially affected stream P concentration. The results suggest that OWS contribution to stream P in this watershed is minimal compared with other factors within the simulated time frame of 10 yr. 相似文献
25.
Jason G. Su Michael Jerrett Bernardo Beckerman Dave Verma M. Altaf Arain Pavlos Kanaroglou Dave Stieb Murray Finkelstein Jeffery Brook 《Atmospheric environment (Oxford, England : 1994)》2010,44(29):3529-3537
More than 25 studies have employed land use regression (LUR) models to estimate nitrogen oxides and to a lesser extent particulate matter indicators, but these methods have been less commonly applied to ambient concentrations of volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Some VOCs have high plausibility as sources of health effects and others are specific indicators of motor vehicle exhaust. We used LUR models to estimate spatial variability of VOCs in Toronto, Canada. Benzene, n-hexane and total hydrocarbons (THC) were measured from July 25 to August 9, 2006 at 50 locations using the TraceAir organic vapor monitors. Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) was also sampled to assess its spatial pattern agreement with VOC exposures. Buffers for land use, population density, traffic density, physical geography, and remote sensing measures of greenness and surface brightness were also tested. The remote sensing measures have the highest correlations with VOCs and NO2 levels (i.e., explains >36% of the variance). Our regression models explain 66–68% of the variance in the spatial distribution of VOCs, compared to 81% for the NO2 model. The ranks of agreement between various VOCs range from 48 to 63% and increases substantially – up to 75% – for the top and bottom quartile groups. Agreements between NO2 and VOCs are much smaller with an average rank of 36%. Future epidemiologic studies may therefore benefit from using VOCs as potential toxic agents for traffic-related pollutants. 相似文献
26.
Hannah M. Badland Mitch J. Duncan 《Atmospheric environment (Oxford, England : 1994)》2009,43(36):5791-5795
BackgroundThis study examines perceived health effect risks from air pollution during the work-related commute by socio-demographic and travel mode variables.MethodsPopulation-representative survey data were collected by telephone from 745 adults from Queensland, Australia. Variables assessed included socio-demographics, usual work travel mode, commute perceptions, and perceived health effects associated with air pollution during the work-related commute.ResultsApproximately 45% of the sample perceived air pollution negatively affected health outcomes when commuting to/from work, yet only 13% recognised air pollution as a major barrier to walking or cycling to/from work. No relationships existed between usual travel mode to/from work and perceived health risks associated with air pollution. Those higher educated or living in major cities were more likely to recognise air pollution harmed their health during their work-related commute when compared to respective referent categories (p ≤ 0.05).ConclusionsRecognition of health risks from air pollution during the work-related commute was high, and awareness did not differ by travel mode. For the majority, air pollution was not a primary barrier for walking or cycling to/from work. 相似文献
27.
Meghan Ellis Thomas Gunton Murray Rutherford 《Journal of environmental management》2010,91(6):1268-1277
Sustainable environmental management is contingent on having an effective environmental planning system. A new methodology for designing and evaluating environmental planning systems is described and applied to a case study evaluation of the Canadian environmental planning process. The methodology is based on eight international best practice principles for environmental planning and 45 indicators. The research illustrates the benefits of the evaluation methodology in identifying how to improve environmental planning systems to achieve desired results. The methodology is applicable to a wide variety of jurisdictions. 相似文献
28.
Kelly M. Cobourn Hannah J. Burrack Rachael E. Goodhue Jeffrey C. Williams Frank G. Zalom 《Journal of Environmental Economics and Management》2011,62(2):278-289
A modeler must often rely on highly simplified representations of complex physical systems when analyzing associated economic issues. Herein, we consider a management problem in which a bioeconomic system exhibits simultaneity in processes governing productivity and damage. In this case, it may benefit the producer to sacrifice productivity to reduce the costs associated with increased damage. We specify empirically a structural damage relationship that explains the biological process by which an invasive species damages a host and estimate the structural model and its reduced form with an exceptional dataset on infestation of olives by the olive fruit fly. We contrast the results of these models with the approach typically taken in the economic literature, which expresses damage as a function of pest density. The population-based approach introduces significantly greater bias into the individual grower's choice of damage-control inputs than estimates based on the structural model. 相似文献
29.
G. N. Rao J. N. Beck H. E. Murray D. J. Nyman 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1991,27(1):47-58
ABSTRACT: Specific capacity data obtained from Well Construction reports which are available from USGS offices, can provide useful estimates of tranamissivity (T), and hydraulic conductivity (K), of an aquifer. The Chicot Aquifer in Louisiana is one of the largest sources of fresh ground water in North America. Hydrologic data collected for the Chicot Aquifer indicate that specific capacity tests can be used in estimating local and regional values for T and K, if the Cooper-Jacob equation for transient flow is used with proper corrections for well loss and partial penetration. Where full scale pumping test data are scarce, specific capacity test data that are adequately distributed spatially can be used to map changes in T and K values and can be summarized statistically to indicate applicable regional values. A computer program called “TGUESS” which is available from International Ground Water Modeling Center, Holcomb Research Institute, was used in this study. The contour maps for T and K values are prepared for different well depth intervals to avoid wide variation of values. 相似文献
30.
John J. Warwick Willard A. Murray 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1988,24(5):1041-1047
ABSTRACT: A one-dimensional, gradually varying, non-uniform, flow equation is developed to describe the movement of a variable density gravity current through a reservoir. A linearly decreasing underflow density function is used to investigate the effect of in-reservoir density reduction on typical gravity current flow profiles. Only two types of flow profiles are found to exist for varying density underflows: Type I profiles where the underflow asymptotically approaches a horizontal surface, and Type III profiles where the underflow vertically approaches critical depth. Type I profiles pass through a transitional depth as the underflow density approaches that of the upper layer. Results indicate that a reservoir can be segmented into four distinct spatial regions with well defined flow profile characteristics. The location of these regions allows the sketching of interfacial flow profiles along with identifying the location of transitional depth conditions. Transitional depth conditions are utilized as the logical starting point for Type I flow profile numerical computation. (KEY WORDS: density; fluid flow; reservoirs; hydraulics.) 相似文献