Prospects for stakeholder coordination by protected‐area managers in Europe

Growing resource demands by humans, invasive species, natural hazards, and a changing climate have created broad‐scale impacts and the need for broader‐extent conservation activities that span ownerships and even political borders. Implementing regional‐scale conservation brings great challenges, and learning how to overcome these challenges is essential for maintaining biodiversity (i.e., richness and evenness of biological communities) and ecosystem functions and services across scales and borders in the face of system change. We administered an online survey to examine factors potentially driving perspectives of protected‐area (PA) managers regarding coordination with neighboring PAs and other stakeholders (i.e., stakeholder coordination) for conserving biodiversity and ecosystem services during the next decade within diverse regions across Europe. Although >70% (n = 58) of responding PA managers indicated that climate change and invasive species are relevant for their PAs, they gave <50% probability that these threats could be mitigated through stakeholder coordination. They thought there was a >60% probability (n = 85) that stakeholder coordination would take place with the aim to improve conservation outcomes. Consistent with the foundation on which many European PAs were established, managers viewed maintaining or enhancing biodiversity as the most important (>70%; n = 61) expected benefit. Other benefits included maintaining or enhancing human resources and environmental education (range of Bayesian credibility intervals [CIs] 57–93%). They thought the main barriers to stakeholder coordination were the lack of human and economic resources (CI 59–67% chance of hindering; n = 64) followed by communication and interstakeholder differences in political structures and laws (CI 51–64% probability of hindering). European policies and strategies that address these hindering factors could be particularly effective means of enabling implementation of green infrastructure networks in which PAs are the nodes.     

A multispecies test of source–sink indicators to prioritize habitat for declining populations

For species at risk of decline or extinction in source–sink systems, sources are an obvious target for habitat protection actions. However, the way in which source habitats are identified and prioritized can reduce the effectiveness of conservation actions. Although sources and sinks are conceptually defined using both demographic and movement criteria, simplifications are often required in systems with limited data. To assess the conservation outcomes of alternative source metrics and resulting prioritizations, we simulated population dynamics and extinction risk for 3 endangered species. Using empirically based habitat population models, we linked habitat maps with measured site‐ or habitat‐specific demographic conditions, movement abilities, and behaviors. We calculated source–sink metrics over a range of periods of data collection and prioritized consistently high‐output sources for conservation. We then tested whether prioritized patches identified the habitats that most affected persistence by removing them and measuring the population response. Conservation decisions based on different source–sink metrics and durations of data collection affected species persistence. Shorter time series obscured the ability of metrics to identify influential habitats, particularly in temporally variable and slowly declining populations. Data‐rich source–sink metrics that included both demography and movement information did not always identify the habitats with the greatest influence on extinction risk. In some declining populations, patch abundance better predicted influential habitats for short‐term regional persistence. Because source–sink metrics (i.e., births minus deaths; births and immigrations minus deaths and emigration) describe net population conditions and cancel out gross population counts, they may not adequately identify influential habitats in declining populations. For many nonequilibrium populations, new metrics that maintain the counts of individual births, deaths, and movement may provide additional insight into habitats that most influence persistence.     

Modelling spatial patterns of correlations between concentrations of heavy metals in mosses and atmospheric deposition in 2010 across Europe

Background

This paper aims to investigate the correlations between the concentrations of nine heavy metals in moss and atmospheric deposition within ecological land classes covering Europe. Additionally, it is examined to what extent the statistical relations are affected by the land use around the moss sampling sites. Based on moss data collected in 2010/2011 throughout Europe and data on total atmospheric deposition modelled by two chemical transport models (EMEP MSC-E, LOTOS-EUROS), correlation coefficients between concentrations of heavy metals in moss and in modelled atmospheric deposition were specified for spatial subsamples defined by ecological land classes of Europe (ELCE) as a spatial reference system. Linear discriminant analysis (LDA) and logistic regression (LR) were then used to separate moss sampling sites regarding their contribution to the strength of correlation considering the areal percentage of urban, agricultural and forestry land use around the sampling location. After verification LDA models by LR, LDA models were used to transform spatial information on the land use to maps of potential correlation levels, applicable for future network planning in the European Moss Survey.

Results

Correlations between concentrations of heavy metals in moss and in modelled atmospheric deposition were found to be specific for elements and ELCE units. Land use around the sampling sites mainly influences the correlation level. Small radiuses around the sampling sites examined (5 km) are more relevant for Cd, Cu, Ni, and Zn, while the areal percentage of urban and agricultural land use within large radiuses (75–100 km) is more relevant for As, Cr, Hg, Pb, and V. Most valid LDA models pattern with error rates of <?40% were found for As, Cr, Cu, Hg, Pb, and V. Land use-dependent predictions of spatial patterns split up Europe into investigation areas revealing potentially high (=?above-average) or low (=?below-average) correlation coefficients.

Conclusions

LDA is an eligible method identifying and ranking boundary conditions of correlations between atmospheric deposition and respective concentrations of heavy metals in moss and related mapping considering the influence of the land use around moss sampling sites.

     

利用不同形态硫同位素组成辨识土壤污染过程的方法初探

本研究利用硫含量变化特征和不同形态硫同位素组成的变化规律,分析土壤硫源和迁移转化过程,辨识土壤污染过程.在北京市首钢烧结厂和通州永乐店分别采集了2条土壤剖面.研究结果显示：首钢工业区土壤硫含量在0.01%和0.69%间变化,土壤全硫在0.001%和0.03%间变化;工业区附近土壤样品可溶性硫酸盐硫同位素组成、硫化物硫同...     

利用有机碳同位素组成辨识土壤污染过程的方法初探

利用有机碳含量变化特征和有机碳同位素组成的变化规律,探寻土壤碳源和迁移转化过程.在北京市首钢烧结厂和通州永乐店分别采集了2条土壤剖面,对样品进行了有机碳含量和同位素组成的分析.研究结果表明,首钢工业区烧结厂和城郊土壤样品有机碳含量相差很大,表层土最高含量分别是4.4%和0.8%;首钢烧结厂附近土壤样品有机碳同位素组成仅...     

Desert ants adjust their approach to a foraging site according to experience

In the habitat of desert ants, Cataglyphis fortis, a constant wind is usually blowing during the daytime. When visiting a familiar food source, the ants steer some distance downwind of the feeder, rather than attempting a direct approach that might miss small food sources, in particular. In the downwind area, the ants pick up the odor plume emanating from the food and follow it upwind to the prey. This strategy saves considerable walking distance and time. The additional path necessitated by the downwind strategy is only about 0.75 to 2 m, depending on nest–feeder distance, while missing the food on the upwind side results in much longer search trajectories. During the initial three to five visits to a feeding site, downwind distance and length of the approach path are shortened notably, and the approach trajectory is straightened. Desert ants further exhibit considerable short-term flexibility in their approach. Experienced individuals are evidently able to decide upon leaving the nest which direction to choose toward the feeder, depending on current wind direction (that fluctuates slightly during the day). Notable changes in wind direction occur primarily overnight. For larger nest–feeder distances, the animals adjust their approach en route to the altered wind direction during their first foraging trip in the morning.     

Future sea ice conditions and weather forecasts in the Arctic: Implications for Arctic shipping

The ability to forecast sea ice (both extent and thickness) and weather conditions are the major factors when it comes to safe marine transportation in the Arctic Ocean. This paper presents findings focusing on sea ice and weather prediction in the Arctic Ocean for navigation purposes, in particular along the Northeast Passage. Based on comparison with the observed sea ice concentrations for validation, the best performing Earth system models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) program (CMIP5—Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) were selected to provide ranges of potential future sea ice conditions. Our results showed that, despite a general tendency toward less sea ice cover in summer, internal variability will still be large and shipping along the Northeast Passage might still be hampered by sea ice blocking narrow passages. This will make sea ice forecasts on shorter time and space scales and Arctic weather prediction even more important.     

The effects of aggregation on the performance of the inverse method and indicators of network analysis

Food webs are usually aggregated into a manageable size for their interpretation and analysis. The aggregation of food web components in trophic or other guilds is often at the choice of the modeler as there is little guidance in the literature as to what biases might be introduced by aggregation decisions. We examined the impacts of the choice of the a priori model on the subsequent estimation of missing flows using the inverse method and on the indices derived from ecological network analysis of both inverse method-derived flows and on the actual values of flows, using the fully determined Sylt-Rømø Bight food web model. We used the inverse method, with the least squares minimization goal function, to estimate ‘missing’ values in the food web flows on 14 aggregation schemes varying in number of compartments and in methods of aggregation. The resultant flows were compared to known values; the performance of the inverse method improved with increasing number of compartments and with aggregation based on both habitat and feeding habits rather than diet similarity. Comparison of network analysis indices of inverse method-derived flows with that of actual flows and the original value for the unaggregated food web showed that the use of both the inverse method and the aggregation scheme affected indices derived from ecological network analysis. The inverse method tended to underestimate the size and complexity of food webs, while an aggregation scheme explained as much variability in some network indices as the difference between inverse-derived and actual flows. However, topological network indices tended to be most robust to both the method of determining flows and to the inverse method. These results suggest that a goal function other than minimization of flows should be used when applying the inverse method to food web models. Comparison of food web models should be done with extreme care when different methodologies are used to estimate unknown flows and to aggregate system components. However, we propose that indices such as relative ascendency and relative redundancy are most valuable for comparing ecosystem models constructed using different methodologies for determining missing flows or for aggregating system components.     

Do metal concentrations in moss from the Zackenberg area,Northeast Greenland,provide a baseline for monitoring?

Purpose  

This study aims at evaluating (a) whether concentrations of a suite of elements in mosses sampled in the arctic region around Zackenberg reflect background concentrations useful for estimating pollution levels in industrialized parts of the northern hemisphere as is attempted, e.g. in the framework of the UNECE ICP Vegetation monitoring programme, and (b) whether there are any influences from Zackenberg research station detectable in these concentrations.